Northern Illinois vs Georgia State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Georgia State Panthers are a -10 point favorite vs. the Northern Illinois Huskies
• Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN+

Northern Illinois (0-3) visit Center Parc Stadium to take on Georgia State (2-1) on Sep. 26 in Atlanta, GA. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 pm.

The Georgia State Panthers are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -10 (-108).

The Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Northern Illinois vs Georgia State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Georgia State will win this game with 68.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Georgia State Panthers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Northern Illinois vs Georgia State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Georgia State will cover the spread with 63.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Georgia State Panthers vs Northern Illinois Huskies and all games with BetMGM

Northern Illinois Best Bets Today

• Northern Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+11.00 Units / 74% ROI)
• Northern Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI)
• Northern Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 40% ROI)
• Northern Illinois has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Northern Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)

Georgia State Best Bets Today

• Georgia State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• Georgia State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
• Georgia State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Georgia State have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Georgia State has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Northern Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Northern Illinois Huskies is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -34.38% ROI).

• Northern Illinois is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
• Northern Illinois is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
• Northern Illinois is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Georgia State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia State Panthers is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Georgia State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 5.95% ROI
• Georgia State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
• Georgia State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Northern Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia State

Northern Illinois is 1-9 (.100) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .474

Northern Illinois is 1-9 (.100) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-7th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .441

Northern Illinois is 3-8 (.273) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season– T-15th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Northern Illinois is winless (0-7) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .384

Georgia State: Keys to the Game vs. Northern Illinois

Georgia State is winless (0-8) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .531

Georgia State is winless (0-10) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .413

Georgia State is winless (0-9) when not forcing and recovering a fumble this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .484

Georgia State is winless (0-10) when allowing 22 or more points this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .265

Matchup Notes for Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State

Georgia State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 7.2% of 471 attempts last season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.3% of attempts last season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.7% of 576 attempts since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.4% of attempts since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Georgia State has 357 receptions in 15 games (23.8 per game) since the 2024 season — 11th-best among FBS skill players. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 17.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois’s offense threw for 1,186 passing yards in 12 games (just 98.8 YPG) last season — 3rd-worst among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense allowed 240.8 passing yards per game last season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois’s QBs threw for 1,186 passing yards in 12 games (just 98.8 YPG) last season — 3rd-worst among FBS teams. Georgia State’s defense allowed 240.8 passing yards per game last season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois had just 98.7 receiving yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among FBS skill players. Georgia State’s defense allowed 240.8 receiving yards per game last season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

Northern Illinois Skill Players had no touchdowns on 35 receptions in close and late situations last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.9

Northern Illinois have averaged just 98.8 receiving yards per game (1,186/12) this season– 3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 224.7

Northern Illinois’s offense threw for 1,186 passing yards in 12 games (just 98.8 YPG) last season — 3rd-worst among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense allowed 240.8 passing yards per game last season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois’s QBs threw for 1,186 passing yards in 12 games (just 98.8 YPG) last season — 3rd-worst among FBS teams. Georgia State’s defense allowed 240.8 passing yards per game last season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois have completed passes for 20+ yards on just 12 of their 244 total passing attempts (5%) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 10%

Georgia State Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 7.2% of 471 attempts last season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.3% of attempts last season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State RBs picked up first downs on 4 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-5th-most among FBS Teams

Georgia State RBs were targeted 12 times in short yardage situations last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Georgia State RBs were targeted 8.5 times per game (102/12) last season– 3rd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Georgia State RBs have been targeted 32 times in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams

Northern Illinois Defensive Stats & Trends

Northern Illinois allowed 10 rushing TDs on 412 carries (41.2 Carries Per TD) last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 21

Northern Illinois allowed 1.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (39 yards / 25 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best in FBS; Average: 5.1

Northern Illinois allowed 7 rushing TDs on 53 carries (7.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.4

Northern Illinois allowed 1.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (39 yards / 25 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.0

Northern Illinois allowed 7 rushing TDs on 53 carries (7.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Georgia State Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State has allowed 8.3 touchdowns per interception (25 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Georgia State has allowed 8.3 touchdowns per interception (25 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

Georgia State intercepted 3 of 339 attempts (113.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 37.8

Georgia State has intercepted 3 of 339 attempts (113.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 37.8

Georgia State intercepted 3 of 339 attempts (113.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: 38.5

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