- The Ohio State Buckeyes are a -14 point favorite vs. the Iowa Hawkeyes
- Ohio State vs. Iowa Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- TV Channel: CBS
Ohio State (3-1) visit Kinnick Stadium to take on Iowa (4-0) on Oct. 3 in Iowa City, IA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -14 (-112).
The Ohio State vs. Iowa Over/Under is 44.5 total points.
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Ohio State vs. Iowa Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ohio State | -14 -112 | 44.5 +100 | -625 |
| Iowa | +14 -105 | 44.5 -135 | +475 |
Ohio State vs Iowa Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 73.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Iowa Hawkeyes, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Ohio State vs Iowa Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ohio State will cover the spread with 52.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Ohio State Best Bets Today
- Ohio State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+8.05 Units / 3% ROI)
- Ohio State have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ohio State have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ohio State has hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Ohio State has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 22% ROI)
Iowa Best Bets Today
- Iowa has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Iowa have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Iowa has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Iowa has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.35 Units / 1% ROI)
- Iowa has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.00 Units / 3% ROI)
Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ohio State Buckeyes is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Ohio State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Ohio State is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.68% ROI
- Ohio State is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.35 Units / -52.81% ROI
Iowa Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Iowa Hawkeyes is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.68% ROI).
- Iowa is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 38.89% ROI
- Iowa is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.28 Units / -52.05% ROI
- Iowa is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 41.94% ROI
Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa
Ohio State is undefeated (14-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2024 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .622
Ohio State was 11-1 (.917) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578
Ohio State was 3-2 (.600) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .429
Ohio State is undefeated (13-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2024 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .714
Iowa: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State
Iowa is undefeated (5-0) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2024 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .674
Iowa was 5-1 (.833) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .628
Iowa is 9-1 (.900) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: .626
Iowa was 1-5 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Matchup Notes for Ohio State vs. Iowa
Iowa’s QBs threw for 1,856 passing yards in 13 games (just 142.8 YPG) last season — 10th-worst among FBS teams. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 129.7 passing yards per game last season — best among FBS defenses.
Iowa gained 1,856 yards on 179 receptions (just 10.4 YPR) last season — T-5th-worst among Power 5 skill players. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception last season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.
Iowa’s WRs gained 1,074 yards on 97 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) last season — T-10th-worst among FBS WRs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception last season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.
Ohio State’s offense threw for 3,755 passing yards in 14 games (268.2 YPG) last season — 24th-best among FBS offenses. Iowa’s defense allowed just 172.7 passing yards per game last season — 4th-best among Big Ten defenses.
Ohio State’s TEs had 74 receptions in 14 games (5.3 per game) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Iowa’s defense allowed just 16.5 receptions per game last season — 4th-best among Big Ten defenses.
Ohio State’s TEs had 74 receptions in 14 games (5.3 per game) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Iowa’s defense allowed just 16.5 receptions per game last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.
Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ohio State WRs have averaged 208.8 receiving yards per game (835/4) in the 1st half this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 110.3
Ohio State WRs have averaged 19.2 yards per reception (537 yards/28 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.5
Ohio State WRs have averaged 19.2 yards per reception (537 yards/28 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.7
Ohio State Skill Players have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Ohio State Skill Players have averaged 245.8 receiving yards per game (983/4) in the 1st half this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 147.9
Iowa Offensive Stats & Trends
Iowa TEs have been targeted 12 times in close and late situations this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Iowa TEs had just one touchdown on 58 receptions last season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3
Iowa TEs were targeted 9 times in the 4th quarter last week– most among FBS Teams
Iowa TEs had 7 receptions in the 4th quarter last week– most among Power Conference Teams
Iowa’s QBs threw for 1,856 passing yards in 13 games (just 142.8 YPG) last season — 10th-worst among FBS teams. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 129.7 passing yards per game last season — best among FBS defenses.
Ohio State Defensive Stats & Trends
Ohio State opponents averaged 44.1 Passing Attempts per TD (441 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 20.6
Ohio State has allowed 136.5 Passing Yards per game (2,457/18) since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 210.8
Ohio State opponents averaged 44.1 Passing Attempts per TD (441 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.7
Ohio State opponents averaged 7.8 Passing Attempts per TD (39 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0
Ohio State has allowed just 136.5 receiving yards per game (2,457/18) since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 210.8
Iowa Defensive Stats & Trends
Iowa did not record a sack (38 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14.3
Iowa allowed 4 rushing TDs on 54 carries (13.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 4.6
Iowa allowed 4 rushing TDs on 406 carries (101.5 Carries Per TD) last season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 26
Iowa allowed 4 rushing TDs on 54 carries (13.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 5
Iowa allowed 4 rushing TDs on 406 carries (101.5 Carries Per TD) last season– best in FBS; Average: 23.2
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