Old Dominion vs Georgia State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

• The Old Dominion Monarchs are a -1 point favorite vs. the Georgia State Panthers
• Old Dominion vs. Georgia State Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN+

Old Dominion (1-3) visit Center Parc Stadium to take on Georgia State (3-1) on Oct. 3 in Atlanta, GA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.

The Old Dominion Monarchs are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -1 (+105).

The Old Dominion vs. Georgia State Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

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Old Dominion vs. Georgia State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Old Dominion vs Georgia State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Old Dominion will win this game with 52.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Old Dominion Monarchs and the Georgia State Panthers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Old Dominion vs Georgia State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Old Dominion will cover the spread with 52.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Georgia State Panthers vs Old Dominion Monarchs and all games with BetMGM

Old Dominion Best Bets Today

• Old Dominion has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.95 Units / 4% ROI)
• Old Dominion has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.05 Units / 57% ROI)
• Old Dominion has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.42 Units / 17% ROI)
• Old Dominion has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Old Dominion have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 23% ROI)

Georgia State Best Bets Today

• Georgia State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Georgia State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Georgia State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Georgia State have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• Georgia State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)

Old Dominion Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Old Dominion Monarchs is 0-4 against the spread this college football season (-4.49 Units / -100% ROI).

• Old Dominion is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
• Old Dominion is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.22 Units / -5.07% ROI
• Old Dominion is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.28 Units / -6.28% ROI

Georgia State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia State Panthers is 4-0 against the spread this college football season (+4 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Georgia State is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 7.73% ROI
• Georgia State is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Georgia State is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Old Dominion: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia State

Old Dominion is 11-1 (.917) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2024 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .639

Old Dominion is 9-6 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .449

Old Dominion was 4-1 (.800) when not losing a fumble last season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533

Old Dominion is 11-4 (.733) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .633

Georgia State: Keys to the Game vs. Old Dominion

Georgia State was winless (0-6) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .424

Georgia State was winless (0-6) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Georgia State was 2-9 (.182) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

Georgia State was 3-9 (.250) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-10th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .442

Matchup Notes for Old Dominion vs. Georgia State

Georgia State gained 3,027 yards on 286 receptions (just 10.6 YPR) last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS skill players. Old Dominion’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 7.2% of 471 attempts last season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. Old Dominion’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.4% of attempts last season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State gained 3,027 yards on 286 receptions (just 10.6 YPR) last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS skill players. Old Dominion’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Old Dominion’s WRs gained 2,368 yards on 148 receptions (16.0 YPR) last season — T-6th-best among FBS WRs. Georgia State’s defense allowed 13.2 Yards Per Reception last season — 10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Old Dominion’s RBs averaged 12.3 yards after the catch last season — 4th-best among FBS RBs. Georgia State’s defense allowed 11.9 RAC to RBs last season — 5th-worst among FBS defenses.

Old Dominion gained 2,808 yards on 190 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — 7th-best among FBS skill players. Georgia State’s defense allowed 13.2 Yards Per Reception last season — 10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Old Dominion Offensive Stats & Trends

Old Dominion have thrown 0 TDs on 18 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 16.6

Old Dominion WRs have averaged 24.8 yards per reception (223 yards/9 catches) on 1st down this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.8

Old Dominion have thrown one TD on 80 pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– 3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.0

Old Dominion were sacked 9 times last week– 2nd-most among FBS Offenses

Old Dominion have picked up first downs on 17% of their rush attempts in short yardage situations this season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 57%

Georgia State Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State have thrown 0 TDs on 34 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 16.6

Georgia State QBs have 7 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– T-most among FBS Teams

Georgia State RBs have picked up first downs on 7 receptions on 1st down this season– most among FBS Teams

Georgia State RBs picked up first downs on 4 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-5th-most among FBS Teams

Georgia State RBs caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams

Old Dominion Defensive Stats & Trends

Old Dominion allowed 12 rushing TDs on 103 carries (8.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.5

Old Dominion has allowed 5.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,646 yards / 990 touches) since the 2024 season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.9

Old Dominion has allowed 14 rushing TDs on 101 carries (7.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.5

Old Dominion allowed 4 TD passes last week– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Old Dominion has no interceptions (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 32.9

Georgia State Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State has allowed 5.8 touchdowns per interception (29 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

Georgia State allowed 8.3 touchdowns per interception (25 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Georgia State has intercepted 5 of 456 attempts (91.2 pass attempts per int.) since the 2024 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: 38.5

Georgia State allowed 8.3 touchdowns per interception (25 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

Georgia State did not tackle opponents for a loss on any of 34 rushing attempts on 3rd and short last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

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