- The South Florida Bulls are a -17.5 point favorite vs. the Bowling Green Falcons
- South Florida vs. Bowling Green Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
South Florida (3-0) visit Doyt L. Perry Stadium to take on Bowling Green (0-3) on Sep. 26 in Bowling Green, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00 pm.
The South Florida Bulls are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -17.5 (-108).
The South Florida vs. Bowling Green Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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South Florida vs. Bowling Green Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| South Florida | -17.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -1000 |
| Bowling Green | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +700 |
South Florida vs Bowling Green Prediction:
The winning team model predicts South Florida will win this game with 89.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the South Florida Bulls and the Bowling Green Falcons, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
South Florida vs Bowling Green Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Florida will cover the spread with 50.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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South Florida Best Bets Today
- South Florida has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- South Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 1% ROI)
- South Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- South Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- South Florida have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Bowling Green Best Bets Today
- Bowling Green has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.40 Units / 11% ROI)
South Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record
South Florida Bulls is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- South Florida is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 33.33% ROI
- South Florida is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- South Florida is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Bowling Green Falcons is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Bowling Green is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Bowling Green is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Bowling Green is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
South Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green
South Florida is 9-2 (.818) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .636
South Florida is 6-2 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .386
South Florida is 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .603
South Florida was 1-7 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .420
Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. South Florida
Bowling Green was winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Bowling Green was winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314
Bowling Green is 3-7 (.300) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .474
Bowling Green is 1-3 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble this season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .484
Matchup Notes for South Florida vs. Bowling Green
Bowling Green’s offense threw for 1,715 passing yards in 11 games (just 155.9 YPG) last season — 12th-worst among FBS offenses. South Florida’s defense allowed 242.8 passing yards per game last season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s WRs gained 694 yards on 59 receptions (just 11.8 YPR) last season — T-26th-worst among FBS WRs. South Florida’s defense allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception last season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green has 197 receptions in 14 games (just 14.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-12th-worst among FBS skill players. South Florida’s defense has allowed 22.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 10th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Florida’s WRs gained 3,037 yards on 212 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Florida’s WRs has averaged 14.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-32nd-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Florida’s WRs has 256 receptions in 16 games (16.0 per game) since the 2024 season — 15th-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 16.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.
South Florida Offensive Stats & Trends
South Florida have gained 40+ yards on 20 of their 269 receptions (7%) this season– 7th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%
South Florida’s WRs gained 3,037 yards on 212 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
South Florida WRs fumbled 9 times last season– T-most among FBS Teams
South Florida RBs rushed for 8 TDs in the 1st quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
South Florida’s WRs has averaged 14.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-32nd-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green Offensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green TEs averaged 9.8 receptions per game (128/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Bowling Green WRs have just one touchdown on 59 receptions this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
Bowling Green TEs were targeted 13.5 times per game (176/13) last season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Bowling Green WRs have no touchdowns on 2 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0
Bowling Green TEs averaged 4.2 receptions per game (54/13) in the 2nd half last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 1.7
South Florida Defensive Stats & Trends
South Florida sacked opponents 7 times in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
South Florida tackled opponents for a loss on 20 of 79 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
South Florida tackled opponents for a loss on 102 of 509 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) last season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
South Florida sacked opponents 7 times in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-most in FBS
South Florida has allowed 15 touchdowns on 295 completions (19.7 Completions Per TD) this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.3
Bowling Green Defensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green has not recorded a sack (28 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.8
Bowling Green has not recorded a sack (28 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2
Bowling Green has allowed 5.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (277 yards / 54 touches) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7
Bowling Green did not record a sack (28 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.8
Bowling Green allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (15 completions/40 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 54%
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