- The Toledo Rockets are a -18.5 point favorite vs. the Ball State Cardinals
- Toledo vs. Ball State Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Toledo (3-1) visit Scheumann Stadium to take on Ball State (1-3) on Oct. 3 in Muncie, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 pm.
The Toledo Rockets are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -18.5 (-120).
The Toledo vs. Ball State Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Toledo vs. Ball State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Toledo | -18.5 -120 | 51.5 -108 | -1200 |
| Ball State | +18.5 -108 | 51.5 -125 | +825 |
Toledo vs Ball State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 89.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Toledo Rockets and the Ball State Cardinals, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Toledo vs Ball State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Toledo will cover the spread with 52.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Toledo Best Bets Today
- Toledo has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Ball State Best Bets Today
- Ball State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+6.65 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ball State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo Rockets is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).
- Toledo is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 22.99% ROI
- Toledo is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Toledo is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ball State Cardinals is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
- Ball State is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -13.33% ROI
- Ball State is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
- Ball State is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State
Toledo was 7-2 (.778) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .668
Toledo is 8-6 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– 38th-best in FBS; Average: .449
Toledo is 11-4 (.733) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2024 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .544
Toledo is 11-4 (.733) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2024 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .602
Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo
Ball State is 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: .564
Ball State was 1-8 (.111) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .390
Ball State was 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– 18th-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Ball State was 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .454
Matchup Notes for Toledo vs. Ball State
Ball State’s QBs threw for 1,583 passing yards in 12 games (just 131.9 YPG) last season — 6th-worst among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense allowed just 158.0 passing yards per game last season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s offense threw for 1,679 passing yards in 12 games (just 139.9 YPG) last season — 8th-worst among FBS offenses. Toledo’s defense allowed just 158.0 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Ball State’s WRs has averaged just 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst among FBS WRs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 12.1 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo had 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-19th-best among FBS skill players. Ball State’s defense allowed 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.6% of 974 attempts since the 2024 season — T-32nd-best among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.6% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-6th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s QBs has thrown for 7,622 passing yards in 30 games (254.1 YPG) since the 2024 season — 34th-best among FBS teams. Ball State’s defense has allowed 253.4 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends
Toledo WRs have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Toledo TEs caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo Skill Players have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo Skill Players averaged 25.0 yards per target (150 yards/6 targets) on 1st down last week– best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.4
Toledo Skill Players have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ball State have been sacked on 15% of pass attempts (59/395) since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%
Ball State RBs were targeted 5 times on 3rd down last week– T-most among FBS Teams
Ball State have thrown 0 TDs on 29 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 16.6
Ball State TEs averaged 8.5 receptions per game (102/12) last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Ball State have been sacked on 15% of pass attempts (59/395) since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 6%
Toledo Defensive Stats & Trends
Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 9% (1 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%
Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 9% (1 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best in FBS; Average: 63%
Toledo allowed opponents to catch just 6 of 20 passes (30% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Toledo has sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (47/480) since the 2024 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6%
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (252 completions/480 attempts) since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
Ball State Defensive Stats & Trends
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes last season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Ball State has allowed 8 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most in FBS
Ball State has allowed 8 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes last season– 2nd-most in FBS
Ball State did not record a sack (50 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
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