Japan will start its title defense in the World Baseball Classic with a Pool Play opener against Chinese Taipei at 5 a.m. ET on Friday in the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo on FS1.
Not only are Japan the defending champions, but they’ve also won the WBC three times in the event’s history. No other team has won it more than once.
Japan enters this year’s WBC with the second-best odds, led by Shohei Ohtani as the MVP favorite. For Game 1, Japan is a -1000 favorite against Chinese Taipei.
Check out my Japan vs. Chinese Taipei prediction for March 6:
Japan vs. Chinese Taipei WBC Prediction for March 6
- Lean over 7.5
Based on the latest baseball odds, I don’t have a favorite Japan vs. Chinese Taipei prediction for Friday’s WBC matchup. I lean toward taking the over on the full-game total, which is currently priced at 7.5.
Japan’s roster is loaded once again, even though Ohtani won’t pitch. He’s still the best player in this event as a designated hitter after hitting .435 in 2023 with four doubles, eight RBIs, and one home run.
In addition, Japan brings back plenty of offensive firepower with Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, Seiya Suzuki, and Masataka Yoshida. The only problem is that it’s unclear how they all fit defensively. There could be some defensive concerns, no matter who is out there.
Perhaps that doesn’t matter as much in Game 1, when right-handed pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto will get the start. But I’m also skeptical of his stamina this spring, especially after pitching 17 2/3 innings for the Los Angeles Dodgers in last year’s World Series.
In pool play, pitchers can’t throw more than 65 pitches in an appearance. So could Japan allow more runs when Yamamoto leaves the game?
Japan will certainly score its fair share of runs in this game. But it’s important to remember that the World Baseball Classic has a mercy rule. A game will end if a team is leading by at least 15 runs after the fifth inning or by at least 10 runs after the seventh inning.
If the mercy rule is applied, all total and run line bets at BetMGM will be voided. Only moneyline wagers will be settled as final for games that end due to the mercy rule.
With that in mind, it’d be over or nothing for me in Japan’s WBC opener.
Japan vs. Chinese Taipei WBC Odds: Friday, March 6
- Japan moneyline: -1000
- Chinese Taipei moneyline: +650
- Total: 7.5
Who Will Start for Japan vs. Chinese Taipei in the World Baseball Classic?
Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start for Japan in their WBC pool play matchup against Chinese Taipei on Friday.
Yamamoto, 27, is coming off winning the World Series MVP award for the Los Angeles Dodgers in MLB. He posted a 2.49 ERA in 30 starts during the 2025 regular season.
Who Will Start for Chinese Taipei in the World Baseball Classic?
Chinese Taipei will send right-hander Hao-Chun Cheng to the mound against Japan on Friday.
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