Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and a Fulham vs Crystal Palace prediction.Â
Fulham vs Crystal Palace: Premier League Odds
Crystal Palace vs Fulham Prediction
Based on Crystal Palace’s misleading defensive record and bad luck on Matchday 1 against Everton, my Fulham vs Crystal Palace prediction is Crystal Palace Draw, No Bet (+115).Â
It’s my opinion the current market gap between these teams is exaggerated. Both lost their opening two matches, but Palace ran extremely unlucky in the process.
Palace recorded a -5 goal differential against Everton and Manchester City, both superior sides to Fulham. That record came against a -0.1 expected goal differential and -3.5 post-shot xGDiff.
Most of that misfortune came on Matchday 1 against Everton, a more comparable side to Fulham. Crystal Palace closed at +200 on the moneyline and looked the better side.
Expected goals rated the match a 2-1.2 victory for Palace. Before Everton opened the scoring on 42 minutes, Palace missed two chances worth over 0.3 xG.
It includes a 0.6 xG/0.65 post-shot xG miss from Eddie Nketiah after 17 minutes of play. In fact, Crystal Palace created 1.43 expected goals before Everton scored its first goal.
Now Palace gets a Fulham side that has struggled to create meaningful chances. Through two matches, Fulham created only 2.3 expected goals and 1.2 post-shot xG.
The defense also posted concerning metrics at Sunderland on Matchday 2. Alvaro Arbeloa’s side surrendered two expected goals at Sunderland, the league’s 18th-best attack last year.
It’s also the first time this season Fulham will (presumably) close a market favorite. They’ll do so against a team that avoided defeat in both matches last year.
Palace dominated the reverse fixture at Craven Cottage, winning 2-1. By underlying metrics, the Eagles won 1.65-0.76 on xG and 2.1-1.35 on post-shot xG.
Further benefiting Palace is an extra two days of preparation for this fixture. Those factors lead me to predict the visitors – at worst – take a point on Saturday.
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