France vs Spain Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a France vs Spain prediction for their semifinal matchup in Dallas.

France vs Spain: World Cup Odds

Spain vs France Prediction

Based on France’s inexperience against good teams at this tournament and the market ratings of both teams, my France vs Spain prediction is Spain Draw, No Bet (+120).

These teams met twice in competitive play since 2024. Spain beat France 2-1 in the European Championship semifinal, coming back from 1-0 down inside the first five minutes.

It’s a good match to consider, but relevance is small for evaluating this match. France operated without central attacking midfielder Michael Olise, the current World Cup assists leader.

At the same time, Spain’s right sided defense stood no chance against Kylian Mbappe. While he failed to score, the Real Madrid talisman added 0.54 expected assists and one actual assist.

From a defensive standpoint, France ran wildly unlucky against Spain. Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo scored on 21 and 25 minutes, but the goals carried 0.14 xG/0.41 post-shot xG ratings.

Across all 90 minutes, Spain scored twice off 0.75 xG/0.4 post-shot xG.

In June 2025, Spain beat France 5-4 in UEFA Nations League play. Bettors should put little stock in the goal fest.

France sent out a rotated defense with zero starters from its quarterfinal against Morocco. Spain sent out its starting fullbacks with a rotated central defense.

All that said, the match mostly represents a sell-high spot on France. Didier Deschamps’ side actually ran unlucky in a 2-0 win based on their underlying metrics.

Expected goals rated the match a 3.7-0.1 France win. Even without Kylian Mbappe’s missed penalty kick, Les Bleus still managed 2.9 expected goals.

That offensive output won’t happen against a really good Spanish defense. I simultaneously wonder if France’s fullbacks saw a test at Spain’s level in this tournament.

France’s defense conceded only twice in six matches. But their only match against a top-10 ELO-rated side came against Norway’s backups on Matchday 3 of the group stage.

Deschamps rotated his defense, but the unit still allowed a concession off 0.91 non-penalty xG.

Spain, meanwhile, showed attacking prowess against a superior Portugal defense. Although a goal didn’t come until the 91st minute, Spain generated 1.7 xG and 1.5 post-shot xG.

Those factors lead me to believe the gap between these teams is smaller than the marketing pricing. Accordingly, I predict Spain finishes no worse than level at the end of regular time.