Group D World Cup Odds: USA (+130) Favored to Win

Below, bettors can find World Cup odds for the Group D winner. 

Most Likely to Win Group D at 2026 FIFA World Cup

The United States (+130) is predicted to win Group D at the World Cup. The current price implies a 43.5% probability that the USMNT finishes atop the group. 

Oddsmakers price Turkiye as the closest challenger. As of April 10, they are +175 to win the group for a 36.4% implied probability. 

Group D World Cup 2026 Odds

Group D World Cup 2026 Prediction

Based on their strong run of form and impressive results against top-tier nations, I predict Turkiye (+175) wins Group D. 

Call me anti-American if you want. The USMNT’s results during the March window left me extremely skeptical of the defense. 

Belgium and Portugal scored seven against the United States. Playing Belgium, Team USA allowed five goals, 10 shots on target and 38 opposition touches inside the box. 

The pair of losses extends the USMNT’s losing streak against UEFA sides to four games. The sample includes a 2-1 loss to Turkiye in a June 2025 friendly. 

If you think both teams hold serve against Paraguay and Australia, Turkiye holds the attacking prowess to perform well as an underdog to the USMNT. 

Recently, Turkiye closed a sizable road underdog against World Cup favorites Spain. Manager Vincenzo Montella led the team to a 2-2 draw against the powerhouse. 

Turkiye, featuring impressive attacking pieces like Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz, generated 1.75 post-shot xG in that fixture. 

The result marks one of six straight where Turkiye earned points under Montella. Since the calendar turned to 2025, Turkiye posted a 9-1-2 (W-D-L) record. 

Over the same timespan, the USMNT recorded a 9-1-6 (W-D-L) record. But most of the wins came over easy competition like Saudi Arabia, Australia, Paraguay, Costa Rica and Guatemala. 

Given the USMNT’s record against decent competition, it’s my belief they advance to the knockouts behind Turkiye.