2026 World Cup Favorites: Updated Power Rankings

Traditionally, betting longshots in World Cup odds struggle to come through as tournament winners.

It’s not to say these teams can’t outperform expectations. Croatia proved it in 2018 en route to the final, while Morocco surprised as semifinalists in 2022.

But, generally speaking, these teams come up short at the latter stages. Per Sports Odds History, every World Cup winner since 2002 closed inside +1200 before the tournament.

Argentina closed at +900 in 2022, while France qualifies as the lone double-digit priced favorite to win (+1200 in 2018).

With the trend in mind, I set out to power rank the seven teams priced at +1400 or shorter to win the 2026 World Cup. Prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

World Cup Favorites & Updated Power Rankings

France (+550)

It might come off as an interesting choice given France has dropped two straight in competition against Spain.

But the metrics rated those matches as essential coin flips. Plus, the meeting at the 2024 Euros actually favored France: 1.1-0.75 on expected goals and 1-0.4 on post-shot xG.

Depth also gives Les Bleus a slight edge.

Whereas an injury crisis could derail Spain’s vulnerable defense, France manager Didier Deschamps will enter the World Cup possessing the best top-to-bottom squad.

At a tournament where defense takes on a higher emphasis than attack, the 2018 champions rank slightly ahead of the World Cup favorites.

Spain (+450)

Organizing these teams requires a bit of cherry picking. As noted earlier, Spain takes a slight downgrade given the country’s inconsistent lead-in results.

For example, the pre-tournament favorites allowed nearly two post-shot expected goals to Turkey in a standalone qualifying match.

It’s difficult to place much emphasis on the result, given Spain operated without Rodri, Mikel Merino and Martin Zubimendi.

However, Luis de la Fuente’s side also allowed over 3.5 post-shot xG to the Netherlands last March.

As Spain (presumably) progresses deeper in the tournament, it’s worth monitoring how their defense performs. If it slips up against weaker competition, Spain may fail to win as favorites.

Argentina (+800)

The current title holders needed a lot of luck to claim the 2022 World Cup title.

Penalty luck consistently aided Lionel Scaloni’s side in the tournament run. Plus, Argentina staved off two different elimination scenarios via spot kicks against France and the Netherlands.

Now, Scaloni faces a potential problem for the 2026 edition. Defender Cristian Romero sustained an injury for Tottenham, which leaves the defense questionable at best.

While I remain optimistic about the midfield trio – Enzo Fernandez, Alexis MacAllister and Rodrigo De Paul – the attack could take a step back.

Angel Di Maria retired from international competition and Lionel Messi is 38 years old. How the supporting cast looks if the defense regresses is a big question for the current holders.

If all goes well, however, Argentina begins the tournament with a lofty ceiling.

Portugal (+1000)

Outside which player partners Ruben Dias in central defense, Portugal brings a complete roster to North America.

Cristiano Ronaldo steals most of the headlines. But the attack also features outstanding pieces like Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Pedro Neto and Rafael Leao.

If there’s a team that can overcome its defensive issues by scoring in 2026, it’s Portugal.

Portugal reached the quarterfinals at the 2024 Euros before winning the 2025 Nations League. At the former, the 2016 European champions exited to France on penalty kicks.

But Portugal dominated proceedings before extra time. In the first 90 minutes plus injury time, Portugal edged France 1.09-0.3 on post-shot xG.

In 2025, Portugal beat both Spain and Germany to win the title. While the lead-in form leaves something to be desired, Portugal brings one of the strongest squads.

England (+650)

Thomas Tuchel’s side cruised through qualifying without conceding a goal. The achievement becomes less impressive when you consider the level of competition.

Most concerning for England are the inconsistent results since 2025. Senegal whipped England 3-1 in a June 2025 friendly. In March, England lost to Japan and drew Uruguay.

Against significantly inferior competition, the Three Lions can hide their defensive liabilities. But I remain skeptical of their plan at left back and who partners Declan Rice in central midfield.

Tuchel will take his side into the 2026 tournament having not played a match against a top-20 FIFA-ranked side since June 2024.

That’s a long time to go without facing quality competition. In 2022, England’s defense allowed 1.6 post-shot xG to France when it exited at the quarterfinal stage.

For England to win the World Cup, it will likely need to get some favorable draws.

Brazil (+800)

The attack is very good. Vinicius Jr., Richarlison, Joao Pedro and Lucas Paqueta all feature prominently in the squad.

Here’s the problem: the defense leaves so much to be desired. Even if you rate Arsenal’s Gabriel and Real Madrid’s Eder Militao well, the wing backs leave cause for concern.

Opponents put the defensive weakness on display recently. Japan generated three big chances against the defense from 2-0 down in a recent friendly.

France added two big chances against the defense before a defender received a red card. A penalty salvaged a draw in a friendly against Tunisia.

When Brazil faced Argentina in qualifying, the defense allowed four big scoring chances.

At a tournament where defense is consistently rewarded, Brazil lacks the depth to take on the European powers featuring a good attack.

Germany (+1400)

Given the constant emphasis on defense here, it should come as no surprise Germany comes seventh in the power rankings.

Julian Nagelsmann’s team consistently underperformed at previous World Cups due to inconsistent defensive play.

In 2022, Hansi Flick managed the national team. He oversaw a campaign where Japan and Costa Rica exposed a bad defense despite earning a minority of possession.

Germany’s lead-in form offers a glimmer of hope. As of April 2026, Germany has won seven matches in a row. But only one came against a fellow World Cup side.

Against Switzerland, Germany needed four goals to win a 4-3 thriller. While the attack scored four goals off eight big chances, the defensive liability is a major concern.