- The Iowa State Cyclones are a -1 point favorite vs. the Cincinnati Bearcats
- Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
- TV Channel: TNT | tru
Cincinnati (5-4) visit Jack Trice Stadium to take on Iowa State (4-5) on Nov. 14 in Ames, IA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.
The Iowa State Cyclones are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -1 (-160).
The Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Over/Under is 60.5 total points.
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Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Cincinnati | +1 +120 | 60.5 -120 | +130 |
| Iowa State | -1 -160 | 60.5 -110 | -155 |
Cincinnati vs Iowa State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Iowa State will win this game with 54.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Iowa State Cyclones, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Iowa State will cover the spread with 53.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Iowa State Cyclones vs Cincinnati Bearcats and all games with BetMGM
Cincinnati Best Bets Today
- Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.48 Units / 3% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.16 Units / 1% ROI)
Iowa State Best Bets Today
- Iowa State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.20 Units / 6% ROI)
- Iowa State have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.88 Units / 56% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 53% ROI)
Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Cincinnati Bearcats is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 6.05% ROI).
- Cincinnati is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 21.46% ROI
- Cincinnati is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.78 Units / 28.31% ROI
- Cincinnati is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.07% ROI
Iowa State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Iowa State Cyclones is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.54 Units / -25.43% ROI).
- Iowa State is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 1.16% ROI
- Iowa State is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.62 Units / 6.26% ROI
- Iowa State is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.48 Units / -14.95% ROI
Cincinnati: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa State
Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460
Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492
Cincinnati is 3-8 (.273) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .485
Cincinnati is 3-7 (.300) when losing at least one fumble since the 2024 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .464
Iowa State: Keys to the Game vs. Cincinnati
Iowa State was 9-3 (.750) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481
Iowa State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– 11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .647
Iowa State is 2-8 (.200) when intercepting no passes since the 2024 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .389
Iowa State was 9-3 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .628
Matchup Notes for Cincinnati vs. Iowa State
Iowa State’s WRs gained 1,562 yards on 106 receptions (14.7 YPR) last season — 21st-best among FBS WRs. Cincinnati’s defense allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State’s TEs had 76 receptions in 12 games (6.3 per game) last season — best among Big 12 TEs. Cincinnati’s defense allowed 20.0 receptions per game last season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State gained 2,657 yards on 210 receptions (12.7 YPR) last season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Cincinnati’s defense allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Cincinnati’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 12.6% of 364 attempts last season — 22nd-best among FBS offenses. Iowa State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.3% of attempts last season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Cincinnati’s RBs has rushed for 4,947 yards on 789 carries (6.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among FBS RBs. Iowa State’s defense have allowed 4.9 YPC since the 2024 season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.
Cincinnati’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 9.2% of 1,010 attempts since the 2024 season — T-28th-worst among FBS offenses. Iowa State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 9.3% of attempts since the 2024 season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Cincinnati Offensive Stats & Trends
Cincinnati RBs averaged 9.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (379 yards / 41 touches) on 3rd down last season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6
Cincinnati Skill Players have averaged 22.0 yards per reception (154 yards/7 catches) on 3rd and short this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.7
Cincinnati TEs have no touchdowns on 9 receptions in close and late situations since the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 8.0
Cincinnati RBs have averaged 7.1 Yards per Carry (1,612 yards/228 carries) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Cincinnati WRs have averaged 17.1 yards per target (240 yards/14 targets) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.0
Iowa State Offensive Stats & Trends
Iowa State WRs have no touchdowns on 3 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-6th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0
Iowa State WRs have no touchdowns on 3 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9
Iowa State WRs have no touchdowns on 3 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 1.9
Iowa State Skill Players have averaged just 5.8 yards per reception (104 yards/18 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6
Iowa State’s WRs gained 1,562 yards on 106 receptions (14.7 YPR) last season — 21st-best among FBS WRs. Cincinnati’s defense allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Cincinnati Defensive Stats & Trends
Cincinnati has tackled opponents for a loss on just 99 of 855 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 16%.
Cincinnati intercepted 2 of 388 attempts (194.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 38.5
Cincinnati allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (20 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.6
Cincinnati allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (20 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8
Cincinnati allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (2 completions/7 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Iowa State Defensive Stats & Trends
Iowa State has not recorded a sack (63 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.3
Iowa State has not recorded a sack (63 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 17.3
Iowa State has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (25/647) since the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 7%
Iowa State has not recorded a sack (63 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.4
Iowa State has not recorded a sack (21 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15.5
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