PSG vs. Dortmund Prediction, Odds, Pick

On Tuesday, the first of two Champions League finalists will be decided at the Parc des Princes. 

Dortmund, who won Group F over PSG earlier this season, arrive with a 1-0 aggregate advantage after beating PSG last Wednesday at Signal Iduna Park. 

That marked Dortmund’s first outright win in three tries against PSG this season. When these sides last met in Paris, the hosts claimed a 2-0 win. 

Despite their aggregate disadvantage, PSG is still a -165 favorite to reach the final. 

Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my prediction for the second leg. 

Champions League Odds – PSG vs. Dortmund

• PSG Moneyline: -210
• Dortmund Moneyline: +475
• Draw Moneyline: +360
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)

Champions League Prediction – PSG vs. Dortmund

Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-120)

Don’t let the 1-0 scoreline from the first leg fool you — the game featured wide-open play and ample scoring chances on both ends. 

PSG ran particularly unlucky at Signal Iduna Park and should experience some positive regression in Paris. 

Manager Luis Enrique’s side hit the post twice while creating 1.7 expected goals and four big scoring chances. 

On the other end, Dortmund scored only a single goal off 1.8 expected goals and five big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. 

When PSG played at home against Barcelona — a defense 22nd in expected goals across Europe’s big five leagues — they generated 1.2 expected goals and two big scoring chances. 

On Tuesday, they’ll get a Dortmund side 62nd in that defensive metric that has allowed at least 1.5 xG in six consecutive Champions League games. 

When these sides last met in Paris, the hosts created 1.65 non-penalty expected goals against a Dortmund defense playing five in the back. 

Manager Edin Terzic has since abandoned that approach, which should lead to chances aplenty for PSG. 

At the same time, bettors should expect a strong effort from Dortmund’s attack. 

The German outfit has created at least one expected goal in two straight against PSG and has failed to score only twice this Champions League campaign. 

Plus, Dortmund have shown recently they can finish well as an underdog. 

In the first leg against Atletico Madrid, they created 1.3 post-shot expected goals. In a recent domestic fixture against Bayern Munich, they generated 2.3 psxG. 

For those reasons, expect offensive fireworks on Tuesday as both teams attempt to secure their spot at Wembley Stadium. 

PSG Form 

May 1 at Dortmund: 0-1, L

April 27 vs. Le Havre: 3-3, D

April 24 at Lorient: 4-1, W

April 21 vs. Lyon: 4-1, W

April 16 at Barcelona: 4-1, W

Dortmund Form

May 4 vs. Augsburg: 5-1, W

May 1 vs. PSG: 1-0, W

April 27 at RB Leipzig: 1-4, L

April 21 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 1-1, D

April 16 vs. Atletico Madrid: 4-2, W