- Real Madrid is a -1.5-goal favorite against Braga.
- In Portugal on Matchday 3, Madrid earned a 2-1 road win.
- Why the market is overrating Madrid’s attack.
Before Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League fixture, I’m set to provide a Real Madrid vs. Braga prediction.
Madrid won 2-1 in the reverse fixture on Matchday 3, but metrics suggest they came out lucky. According to expected goals, Braga recorded a 1.54-0.88 win.
Yet, it’s Madrid who sit on nine points entering Wednesday’s fixture. Braga have earned three points in their first three matches.
Here’s how the Champions League odds shape up for Wednesday’s match.
Real Madrid vs. Braga Odds
- Real Madrid to Win: -400
- Braga to Win: +900
- Real Madrid vs. Braga Draw: +550
- The Real Madrid vs. Braga Over/Under is 3.5 Goals
Real Madrid vs. Braga Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Real Madrid vs. Braga is Real Madrid Team Total Under 2.5 Goals (-105).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
One caveat here – wait for lineups to bet. Madrid talisman Jude Bellingham is doubtful, and I only endorse this play if he’s out.
That said, Madrid overperformed their underlying metrics on Matchday 3 and could negatively regress without Bellingham.
What gives me the most confidence here is that Braga has run super unlucky on the defensive end.
Through three games, the Portuguese outfit has surrendered six goals off 4.5 expected, per fbref.com.
Just against Madrid and Napoli – when Braga can sit back and defend – they’ve allowed only 2.6 expected goals.
Regarding Madrid, they struggle to generate high-quality scoring chances.
Although they created 2.2 expected goals over the weekend against Rayo Vallecano, it came off 22 shots.
Across their last three matches – Braga, Barcelona and Rayo – manager Carlo Ancelotti’s side has created only three big scoring chances.
Despite gaining a home-field advantage on Wednesday, I question how Madrid breaks through consistently against a strong defense.
Back their team total under 2.5 goals at -115 or better assuming Bellingham doesn’t play.
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