Arkansas vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

• The Vanderbilt Commodores are a -6.5 point favorite vs. the Arkansas Razorbacks
• Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN2

Arkansas (2-4) visit FirstBank Stadium to take on Vanderbilt (3-3) on Oct. 17 in Nashville, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.

The Vanderbilt Commodores are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Arkansas vs Vanderbilt Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Vanderbilt will win this game with 61.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Vanderbilt Commodores, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Arkansas vs Vanderbilt Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Vanderbilt will cover the spread with 58.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Vanderbilt Commodores vs Arkansas Razorbacks and all games with BetMGM

Arkansas Best Bets Today

• Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Arkansas have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Arkansas has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• Arkansas has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Arkansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.20 Units / 9% ROI)

Vanderbilt Best Bets Today

• Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Vanderbilt have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.58 Units / 32% ROI)
• Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• Vanderbilt has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Vanderbilt has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.76 Units / 16% ROI)

Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas Razorbacks is 2-4 against the spread this college football season (-2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI).

• Arkansas is 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -45.45% ROI
• Arkansas is 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
• Arkansas is 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI

Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Vanderbilt Commodores is 3-3 against the spread this college football season (-0.32 Units / -4.83% ROI).

• Vanderbilt is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Vanderbilt is 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.07% ROI
• Vanderbilt is 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.35 Units / -35.88% ROI

Arkansas: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt

Arkansas is winless (0-10) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .510

Arkansas is winless (0-4) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .471

Arkansas is winless (0-8) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515

Arkansas is winless (0-12) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas

Vanderbilt is 9-3 (.750) when not losing a fumble since the 2024 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .591

Vanderbilt was 2-6 (.250) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Vanderbilt is 1-4 (.200) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515

Vanderbilt is 10-2 (.833) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2024 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .699

Matchup Notes for Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt gained 3,673 yards on 269 receptions (13.7 YPR) last season — T-2nd-best among SEC skill players. Arkansas’s defense allowed 13.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-3rd-worst among P5 defenses.

Vanderbilt’s TEs gained 1,076 yards on 81 receptions (13.3 YPR) last season — 3rd-best among SEC TEs. Arkansas’s defense allowed 13.5 Yards Per Reception last season — worst among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt gained 3,673 yards on 269 receptions (13.7 YPR) last season — T-14th-best among FBS skill players. Arkansas’s defense allowed 13.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas’s QBs threw for 3,155 passing yards in 12 games (262.9 YPG) last season — 28th-best among FBS teams. Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 249.5 passing yards per game last season — worst among SEC defenses.

Arkansas’s QBs threw for 3,155 passing yards in 12 games (262.9 YPG) last season — 28th-best among FBS teams. Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 249.5 passing yards per game last season — 19th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas gained 3,155 yards on 231 receptions (13.7 YPR) last season — T-14th-best among FBS skill players. Vanderbilt’s defense allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception last season — T-4th-best among SEC defenses.

Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas Skill Players averaged 20.6 yards per reception (743 yards/36 catches) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1

Arkansas WRs averaged 25.8 yards per reception (620 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Arkansas TEs averaged 19.2 yards per reception (844 yards/44 catches) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.1

Arkansas WRs averaged a touchdown every 22.6 receptions (181 Rec/8 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 10.6

Arkansas QBs fumbled 5 times in the Red Zone last season– most among FBS Teams

Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt TEs averaged 6.2 receptions per game (81/13) last season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 3.8

Vanderbilt WRs averaged just 6.6 receptions per game (86/13) last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.0

Vanderbilt TEs were targeted 4 times in the 1st quarter last week– most among SEC Teams

Vanderbilt WRs were targeted 11.6 times per game (151/13) last season– lowest among SEC Teams; Average: 19.7

Vanderbilt gained 3,673 yards on 269 receptions (13.7 YPR) last season — T-2nd-best among SEC skill players. Arkansas’s defense allowed 13.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-3rd-worst among P5 defenses.

Arkansas Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 492 attempts (3%) since the 2024 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%

Arkansas has allowed 16 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– most in the SEC

Arkansas has allowed 9.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (186 yards / 20 touches) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 5.1

Arkansas had no interceptions and 11 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 5.8

Arkansas has allowed 16 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS

Vanderbilt Defensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 39 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 2nd-worst in the SEC; Average: 11%.

Vanderbilt has sacked opposing QBs just once on 70 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 12.9

Vanderbilt has allowed 21 TD passes in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– most in the SEC

Vanderbilt has allowed 19 first down receptions in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– most in the SEC

Vanderbilt allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 52 attempts (19%) on 3rd and long last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 9%

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