- The Arizona State Sun Devils are a -3.5 point favorite vs. the Baylor Bears
- Baylor vs. Arizona State Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
Baylor (3-1) visit Mountain America Stadium to take on Arizona State (2-1) on Oct. 3 in Tempe, AZ. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 pm.
The Arizona State Sun Devils are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-125).
The Baylor vs. Arizona State Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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Baylor vs. Arizona State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Baylor | +3.5 -105 | 50.5 -130 | +150 |
| Arizona State | -3.5 -125 | 50.5 -102 | -185 |
Baylor vs Arizona State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Arizona State will win this game with 57.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Baylor Bears and the Arizona State Sun Devils, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Baylor vs Arizona State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arizona State will cover the spread with 56.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Baylor Best Bets Today
- Baylor has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Baylor has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)
- Baylor have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)
- Baylor has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+0.20 Units / 0% ROI)
Arizona State Best Bets Today
- Arizona State have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Arizona State have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Arizona State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Arizona State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Arizona State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.85 Units / 5% ROI)
Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Baylor Bears is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.68% ROI).
- Baylor is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 6.06% ROI
- Baylor is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Baylor is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Arizona State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arizona State Sun Devils is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Arizona State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Arizona State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Arizona State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Arizona State
Baylor was 2-5 (.286) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .420
Baylor is 6-2 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .626
Baylor was 2-5 (.286) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– 14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Baylor was 1-10 (.091) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .576
Arizona State: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor
Arizona State was 8-2 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468
Arizona State was 1-5 (.167) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .576
Arizona State was 10-1 (.909) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-10th-best in FBS; Average: .628
Arizona State was 8-2 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .429
Matchup Notes for Baylor vs. Arizona State
Arizona State’s WRs gained 1,935 yards on 137 receptions (14.1 YPR) last season — T-4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception last season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Arizona State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 8.4% of 429 attempts last season — T-29th-worst among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.6% of attempts last season — 18th-best among FBS defenses.
Arizona State’s WRs gained 1,935 yards on 137 receptions (14.1 YPR) last season — T-34th-best among FBS WRs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception last season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Baylor’s QBs threw for 3,715 passing yards in 12 games (309.6 YPG) last season — 4th-best among FBS teams. Arizona State’s defense allowed 233.5 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Baylor’s WRs averaged 28.2 targets per game last season — highest among Big 12 WRs. Arizona State’s defense allowed 14.2 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Baylor’s offense threw for 3,715 passing yards in 12 games (309.6 YPG) last season — 4th-best among FBS offenses. Arizona State’s defense allowed 233.5 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends
Baylor Skill Players have 19 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– most among Big 12 Teams
Baylor Skill Players have been targeted 156 times in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– most among Big 12 Teams
Baylor Skill Players have been targeted 41.2 times per game (659/16) since the 2024 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.2
Baylor Skill Players have been targeted 41.2 times per game (659/16) since the 2024 season– highest among Big 12 Teams; Average: 30.0
Baylor WRs averaged just 8.3 yards per reception (166 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 15.7
Arizona State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arizona State WRs have averaged 22.6 yards per reception (361 yards/16 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.3
Arizona State WRs averaged 25.9 yards per reception (285 yards/11 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 15.7
Arizona State RBs have averaged 18.9 yards per reception (151 yards/8 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.9
Arizona State Skill Players averaged 22.4 yards per reception (157 yards/7 catches) on 3rd and short last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3
Arizona State’s WRs gained 1,935 yards on 137 receptions (14.1 YPR) last season — T-4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception last season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Baylor Defensive Stats & Trends
Baylor opponents has averaged 74.0 Passing Attempts per TD (148 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 22.1
Baylor has averaged 3.8 sacks per game this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 2.3
Baylor has allowed 4 TDs in close and late situations this season– most in the Big 12
Baylor tackled opponents for a loss on just 62 of 491 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.
Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Arizona State Defensive Stats & Trends
Arizona State intercepted 5 of 419 attempts (83.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 36.5
Arizona State intercepted 5 of 419 attempts (83.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 38.0
Arizona State intercepted 5 of 419 attempts (83.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 36.7
Arizona State allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 4 of 479 attempts (1%) last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 2%
Arizona State allowed 5.6 touchdowns per interception (28 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.9
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