- The Boise State Broncos are a -7.5 point favorite vs. the Western Michigan Broncos
- Boise State vs. Western Michigan Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
Boise State (2-1) visit Waldo Stadium to take on Western Michigan (2-1) on Sep. 26 in Kalamazoo, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.
The Boise State Broncos are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-102).
The Boise State vs. Western Michigan Over/Under is 49.5 total points.
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Boise State vs. Western Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Boise State | -7.5 -102 | 49.5 -105 | -275 |
| Western Michigan | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -112 | +220 |
Boise State vs Western Michigan Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Boise State will win this game with 63.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Boise State Broncos and the Western Michigan Broncos, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Boise State vs Western Michigan Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Boise State will cover the spread with 52.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Boise State Broncos is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.44% ROI).
- Boise State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 3% ROI
- Boise State is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 91.46% ROI
- Boise State is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.32 Units / -100% ROI
Western Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Western Michigan Broncos is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Western Michigan is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 1.84% ROI
- Western Michigan is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Western Michigan is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. Western Michigan
Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388
Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best in FBS; Average: .429
Boise State is undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .636
Boise State was 9-1 (.900) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
Western Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State
Western Michigan is winless (0-4) when allowing 22 or more points this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .265
Western Michigan is 9-2 (.818) when rushing for 120 or more yards this season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .674
Western Michigan is 9-2 (.818) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .590
Western Michigan is 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .560
Matchup Notes for Boise State vs. Western Michigan
Western Michigan’s QBs threw for 1,939 passing yards in 14 games (just 138.5 YPG) last season — 9th-worst among FBS teams. Boise State’s defense allowed just 175.6 passing yards per game last season — 16th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan’s offense threw for 1,939 passing yards in 14 games (just 138.5 YPG) last season — 7th-worst among FBS offenses. Boise State’s defense allowed just 175.6 passing yards per game last season — 16th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan’s offense threw for 1,939 passing yards in 14 games (just 138.5 YPG) last season — 7th-worst among FBS offenses. Boise State’s defense allowed just 175.6 passing yards per game last season — 4th-best among Pac-12 defenses.
Boise State’s WRs had 157 receptions in 14 games (just 11.2 per game) last season — 4th-worst among Pac-12 WRs. Western Michigan’s defense allowed just 15.4 receptions per game last season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Boise State had 273 receptions in 14 games (19.5 per game) last season — T-4th-worst among Pac-12 skill players. Western Michigan’s defense allowed just 15.4 receptions per game last season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Boise State’s TEs had 62 receptions in 14 games (4.4 per game) last season — best among Pac-12 TEs. Western Michigan’s defense allowed just 15.4 receptions per game last season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends
Boise State RBs averaged 222.9 rushing yards per game (3,120/14) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 125.9
Boise State RBs rushed for 10 TDs in close and late situations last season– most among FBS Teams
Boise State RBs rushed for 855 yards in the 1st quarter last season– most among FBS Teams
Boise State’s WRs had 157 receptions in 14 games (just 11.2 per game) last season — 4th-worst among Pac-12 WRs. Western Michigan’s defense allowed just 15.4 receptions per game last season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Boise State had 273 receptions in 14 games (19.5 per game) last season — T-4th-worst among Pac-12 skill players. Western Michigan’s defense allowed just 15.4 receptions per game last season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Michigan’s QBs threw for 1,939 passing yards in 14 games (just 138.5 YPG) last season — 9th-worst among FBS teams. Boise State’s defense allowed just 175.6 passing yards per game last season — 16th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan WRs have averaged a touchdown every 28.2 receptions (113 Rec/4 TDs) this season– 6th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
Western Michigan’s offense threw for 1,939 passing yards in 14 games (just 138.5 YPG) last season — 7th-worst among FBS offenses. Boise State’s defense allowed just 175.6 passing yards per game last season — 16th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan have averaged just 8.6 yards per completion (336 yards/39 completions) in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.7
Western Michigan Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 4.2 receptions (21 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0
Boise State Defensive Stats & Trends
Boise State sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (56/451) last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Boise State sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (56/451) last season– best in FBS; Average: 7%
Boise State averaged 4.0 sacks per game last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
Boise State sacked opponents 9 times in the Red Zone last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Boise State sacked opponents 56 times last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Western Michigan Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Michigan has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (43/387) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Western Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 66 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
Western Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 66 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Western Michigan has allowed less than 300 passing yards in each of their last 15 games — the South Carolina Gamecocks have the longest active streak at 28.
Western Michigan sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (43/387) last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
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