Buffalo vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

• The Penn State Nittany Lions are a -40.5 point favorite vs. the Buffalo Bulls
• Buffalo vs. Penn State Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
• TV Channel: BTN

Buffalo (1-1) visit West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium to take on Penn State (2-0) on Sep. 19 in University Park, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -40.5 (-110).

The Buffalo vs. Penn State Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Buffalo vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Buffalo vs Penn State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 94.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Buffalo Bulls and the Penn State Nittany Lions, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Buffalo vs Penn State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Buffalo will cover the spread with 64.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Buffalo Best Bets Today

• Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
• Buffalo has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Buffalo has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
• Buffalo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)

Penn State Best Bets Today

• Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+2.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Penn State have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.65 Units / 12% ROI)

Buffalo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Buffalo Bulls is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

• Buffalo is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Buffalo is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Buffalo is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State Nittany Lions is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.59% ROI).

• Penn State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 4.65% ROI
• Penn State is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
• Penn State is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Buffalo was undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .632

Buffalo was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583

Buffalo was undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612

Buffalo was 6-2 (.750) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo

Penn State was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .429

Penn State was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468

Penn State was 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: .602

Penn State was 13-3 (.812) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– 15th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .618

Matchup Notes for Buffalo vs. Penn State

Penn State’s offense threw for 2,439 passing yards in 13 games (just 187.6 YPG) last season — 33rd-worst among FBS offenses. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 194.3 passing yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s QBs threw for 2,439 passing yards in 13 games (just 187.6 YPG) last season — 34th-worst among FBS teams. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 194.3 passing yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s WRs had just 116.6 receiving yards per game last season — 4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 194.3 receiving yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s RBs averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch last season — T-18th-worst among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 10.4 RAC last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s WRs had 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS WRs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s WRs had 207.5 receiving yards per game last season — 17th-best among FBS WRs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 128.1 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo Offensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo’s RBs averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch last season — T-18th-worst among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 10.4 RAC last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s WRs had 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS WRs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo threw 6 interceptions in close and late situations last season– T-most among FBS Offenses

Buffalo’s WRs had 207.5 receiving yards per game last season — 17th-best among FBS WRs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 128.1 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo WRs were targeted 12 times in the 4th quarter last week– T-most among FBS Teams

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

Penn State WRs averaged 19.4 yards per reception (389 yards/20 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.4

Penn State TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Penn State TEs averaged 7.9 receptions per game (127/16) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7

Penn State TEs caught 9 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– most among Big Ten Teams

Penn State TEs caught 11 touchdown passes last season– most among Big Ten Teams

Buffalo Defensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 47 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

Buffalo did not record a sack (37 pass attempts) last week– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 17.2

Buffalo allowed 4 TD passes last week– T-5th-most in FBS

Buffalo did not record a sack (37 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.7

Buffalo has allowed less than 300 passing yards in each of their last 10 games — the South Carolina Gamecocks have the longest active streak at 28.

Penn State Defensive Stats & Trends

Penn State allowed 10 rushing TDs on 534 carries (53.4 Carries Per TD) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 23.2

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Penn State allowed 7 rushing TDs on 58 carries (8.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Penn State had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 31.0

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