Buffalo vs Toledo Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

• The Toledo Rockets are a -19.5 point favorite vs. the Buffalo
• Buffalo vs. Toledo Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN+

Buffalo (2-3) visit Glass Bowl to take on Toledo (4-1) on Oct. 10 in Toledo, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.

The Toledo Rockets are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -19.5 (-135).

The Buffalo vs. Toledo Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

Bet now on Toledo Rockets vs Buffalo & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Buffalo vs. Toledo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Buffalo vs Toledo Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 89.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Buffalo and the Toledo Rockets, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Buffalo vs Toledo Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Toledo will cover the spread with 69.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Toledo Rockets vs Buffalo and all games with BetMGM

Buffalo Best Bets Today

• Buffalo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• Buffalo has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Buffalo has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.05 Units / 19% ROI)

Toledo Best Bets Today

• Toledo has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Toledo has hit the Team Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
• Toledo has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 6% ROI)
• Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 59% ROI)
• Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)

Buffalo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Buffalo is 1-4 against the spread this college football season (-3.48 Units / -61.81% ROI).

• Buffalo is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Buffalo is 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.82 Units / 15.02% ROI
• Buffalo is 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.32 Units / -23.83% ROI

Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Toledo Rockets is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.22 Units / -3.99% ROI).

• Toledo is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 12.23% ROI
• Toledo is 5-0 when betting the Over for +5 Units / 91.24% ROI
• Toledo is 0-5 when betting the Under for -5.52 Units / -100% ROI

Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo

Buffalo was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583

Buffalo was undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612

Buffalo was 8-2 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .668

Buffalo was undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .632

Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo

Toledo is 8-6 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .446

Toledo was 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble last season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533

Toledo was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .575

Toledo is 12-4 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2024 season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .601

Matchup Notes for Buffalo vs. Toledo

Toledo’s WRs have 189.4 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — 35th-best among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 172.0 receiving yards per game to WRs since the 2024 season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s WRs has 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — T-17th-best among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Toledo has 2.2 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — T-8th-best among FBS skill players. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s WRs had 207.5 receiving yards per game last season — 17th-best among FBS WRs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 110.2 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s WRs had 207.5 receiving yards per game last season — 17th-best among FBS WRs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 158.0 receiving yards per game last season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s WRs had 169 receptions in 11 games (15.4 per game) last season — T-20th-best among FBS WRs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 8.2 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo Offensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo QBs have 7 completions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Buffalo Skill Players have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Buffalo TEs have no touchdowns on 32 receptions since the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.1

Buffalo RBs averaged 17.6 yards per reception (88 yards/5 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.1

Buffalo WRs have been targeted 103 times in close and late situations since the 2024 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends

Toledo WRs have 8 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams

Toledo have not been sacked (41 pass attempts) on 3rd down this season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.2

Toledo Skill Players have 8 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Toledo RBs averaged just 3.7 Yards per Carry (1,147 yards/313 carries) last season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Toledo have been sacked 2 times on 160 pass attempts (one sack every 80.0 pass attempts) this season– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 16.5

Buffalo Defensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo has intercepted one of 158 attempts this season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: 39.4

Buffalo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (9 completions/24 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Buffalo allowed opponents to catch 19 of 22 passes (86% Reception Pct) last week– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 63%

Buffalo tackled opponents for a loss on 84 of 467 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) last season– 34th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Buffalo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (32 completions/67 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since the 2024 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Toledo Defensive Stats & Trends

Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 9% (1 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (274 completions/515 attempts) since the 2024 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 62%

Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 9% (1 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best in FBS; Average: 63%

Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 30% (6 completions/20 attempts) in close and late situations last season– best in FBS; Average: 60%

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (274 completions/515 attempts) since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Bet now on Toledo Rockets vs Buffalo and all games with BetMGM

More College Football Betting at BetMGM

College football betting is available at the online sportsbook throughout the season.

Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Indiana football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State odds this week, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.

Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!