BYU vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

A general view of the exterior of Amon G. Carter Stadium before an NCAA college football game between TCU and Oklahoma State in Fort Worth, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022.
(AP Photo/Sam Hodde)
Sportsbook Promos This Week
  • The BYU are a -6.5 point favorite vs. the TCU Horned Frogs
  • BYU vs. TCU Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN | DIS+

BYU (3-0) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on TCU (2-2) on Oct. 3 in Fort Worth, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.

The BYU are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The BYU vs. TCU Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

Bet now on TCU Horned Frogs vs BYU & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

BYU vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
BYU-6.5 -11050.5 -155-235
TCU +6.5 -10850.5 +115+195

BYU vs TCU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts BYU will win this game with 57.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the BYU and the TCU Horned Frogs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

BYU vs TCU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts BYU will cover the spread with 51.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on TCU Horned Frogs vs BYU and all games with BetMGM


  • BYU has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • BYU have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • BYU has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • BYU has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • BYU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+3.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 30% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 30% ROI)
  • TCU have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

BYU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

BYU is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 86.96% ROI).

  • BYU is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 16.6% ROI
  • BYU is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • BYU is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU Horned Frogs is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.18 Units / -4.11% ROI).

  • TCU is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -22.39% ROI
  • TCU is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.25 Units / -51.72% ROI
  • TCU is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 42.7% ROI

BYU: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

BYU is undefeated (8-0) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2024 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .621

BYU was 8-2 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

BYU is 9-1 (.900) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2024 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .440

BYU was 8-2 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .429

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. BYU

TCU was 6-3 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .429

TCU was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .632

TCU was 9-2 (.818) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .575

TCU was 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .645

Matchup Notes for BYU vs. TCU

TCU’s WRs has averaged 13.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS WRs. BYU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

TCU has averaged 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. BYU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.1% of 1,080 attempts since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS offenses. BYU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s TEs gained 636 yards on 47 receptions (13.5 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big 12 TEs. TCU’s defense allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception last season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s TEs gained 636 yards on 47 receptions (13.5 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big 12 TEs. TCU’s defense allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception last season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

BYU had 15 receiving touchdowns last season — 4th-fewest among Big 12 skill players. TCU’s defense allowed 25 receiving touchdowns last season — 3rd-most among Big 12 defenses.

BYU Offensive Stats & Trends

BYU have averaged 25.7 yards per completion (77 yards/3 completions) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

BYU have averaged 25.7 yards per reception (77 yards/3 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

BYU Skill Players have averaged 31.7 yards per reception (190 yards/6 catches) in short yardage situations this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.3

BYU Skill Players have averaged 25.7 yards per reception (77 yards/3 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.8

BYU Skill Players have averaged 25.7 yards per reception (77 yards/3 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.5

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU TEs have 8 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– T-most among FBS Teams

TCU WRs have averaged a touchdown every 25.5 receptions (51 Rec/2 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 8.6

TCU had no touchdowns on 25 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.3

TCU Skill Players averaged 17.7 yards per reception (319 yards/18 catches) in close and late situations last season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.0

TCU Skill Players had no touchdowns on 25 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.4

BYU Defensive Stats & Trends

BYU has averaged a sack every 25.8 pass attempts (103 Pass Attempts/4 Sacks) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 13.6

BYU has allowed 55.3 receiving yards per game (166/3) to RBs this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 22.1

BYU sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/408) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%

BYU averaged 1.69 interceptions per game (22/13) last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 0.94

BYU allowed passes of 20+ yards on 13 of 61 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 11%

TCU Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU allowed a Completion Pct of 95% (19 completions/20 attempts) last week– worst in FBS; Average: 62%

TCU allowed a Completion Pct of 95% (19 completions/20 attempts) last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 61%

TCU allowed opponents to catch 19 of 20 passes (95% Reception Pct) last week– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

TCU allowed a Completion Pct of 95% (19 completions/20 attempts) last week– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

TCU allowed opponents to catch 19 of 20 passes (95% Reception Pct) last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 61%


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