BYU vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

• The BYU are a -6.5 point favorite vs. the TCU Horned Frogs
• BYU vs. TCU Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN | DIS+

BYU (3-0) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on TCU (2-2) on Oct. 3 in Fort Worth, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.

The BYU are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The BYU vs. TCU Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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BYU vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

BYU vs TCU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts BYU will win this game with 57.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the BYU and the TCU Horned Frogs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

BYU vs TCU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts BYU will cover the spread with 51.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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BYU Best Bets Today

• BYU has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• BYU have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• BYU has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
• BYU has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• BYU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+3.10 Units / 34% ROI)

TCU Best Bets Today

• TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
• TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• TCU has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• TCU have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
• TCU has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

BYU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

BYU is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 86.96% ROI).

• BYU is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 16.6% ROI
• BYU is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
• BYU is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU Horned Frogs is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.18 Units / -4.11% ROI).

• TCU is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -22.39% ROI
• TCU is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.25 Units / -51.72% ROI
• TCU is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 42.7% ROI

BYU: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

BYU is undefeated (8-0) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2024 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .621

BYU was 8-2 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

BYU is 9-1 (.900) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2024 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .440

BYU was 8-2 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .429

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. BYU

TCU was 6-3 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .429

TCU was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .632

TCU was 9-2 (.818) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .575

TCU was 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .645

Matchup Notes for BYU vs. TCU

TCU’s WRs has averaged 13.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS WRs. BYU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

TCU has averaged 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. BYU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.1% of 1,080 attempts since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS offenses. BYU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s TEs gained 636 yards on 47 receptions (13.5 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big 12 TEs. TCU’s defense allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception last season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s TEs gained 636 yards on 47 receptions (13.5 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big 12 TEs. TCU’s defense allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception last season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

BYU had 15 receiving touchdowns last season — 4th-fewest among Big 12 skill players. TCU’s defense allowed 25 receiving touchdowns last season — 3rd-most among Big 12 defenses.

BYU Offensive Stats & Trends

BYU have averaged 25.7 yards per completion (77 yards/3 completions) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

BYU have averaged 25.7 yards per reception (77 yards/3 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

BYU Skill Players have averaged 31.7 yards per reception (190 yards/6 catches) in short yardage situations this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.3

BYU Skill Players have averaged 25.7 yards per reception (77 yards/3 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.8

BYU Skill Players have averaged 25.7 yards per reception (77 yards/3 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.5

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU TEs have 8 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– T-most among FBS Teams

TCU WRs have averaged a touchdown every 25.5 receptions (51 Rec/2 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 8.6

TCU had no touchdowns on 25 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.3

TCU Skill Players averaged 17.7 yards per reception (319 yards/18 catches) in close and late situations last season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.0

TCU Skill Players had no touchdowns on 25 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.4

BYU Defensive Stats & Trends

BYU has averaged a sack every 25.8 pass attempts (103 Pass Attempts/4 Sacks) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 13.6

BYU has allowed 55.3 receiving yards per game (166/3) to RBs this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 22.1

BYU sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/408) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%

BYU averaged 1.69 interceptions per game (22/13) last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 0.94

BYU allowed passes of 20+ yards on 13 of 61 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 11%

TCU Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU allowed a Completion Pct of 95% (19 completions/20 attempts) last week– worst in FBS; Average: 62%

TCU allowed a Completion Pct of 95% (19 completions/20 attempts) last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 61%

TCU allowed opponents to catch 19 of 20 passes (95% Reception Pct) last week– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

TCU allowed a Completion Pct of 95% (19 completions/20 attempts) last week– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

TCU allowed opponents to catch 19 of 20 passes (95% Reception Pct) last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 61%

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