Fernando Mendoza NFL Draft Projection: Indiana’s Heisman Winner Soars Up the Board

In recent years, Heisman-winning quarterbacks have been near-automatic top picks in the NFL Draft. 

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza wasn’t seen as a clear-cut top pick, even after he won the Big Ten and hoisted the top award for college football players in early December.

But as the College Football Playoff unfolded, Mendoza’s draft stock started to rapidly evolve. 

Fernando Mendoza In the NFL Draft

It’s not uncommon for quarterbacks to rocket up draft boards once the college football season winds down. In the modern NFL, awful teams generally don’t stop being awful until they fix their quarterback issues. Over the last 15 years, that’s led to some real reaches near the top of the first round.

In November and December, Mendoza was seen in these terms. Sure, he might not be a classic top-of-the-first-round candidate, but he’s smart, loaded with positive intangibles, and teams like the Raiders and Jets badly need a guy. Those teams might as well bring him in and hope he’s the answer.

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff changed everything. Whereas many other top seeds faltered, Indiana and Mendoza raised their game to another level, burning through Alabama and Oregon in playoff laughers. 

As Mendoza continued delivering touchdown dimes and perfect back-shoulder fades, he started drawing comparisons to 2019 Joe Burrow – one of the holy college football comps of the 21st century.

As a result, Mendoza is increasingly seen as a bona fide top choice at the top of the first round. He’ll still need to go through the draft process, but it’s beginning to look like less of a mystery where Mendoza will be drafted – assuming he doesn’t want a job on Wall Street next fall.

Fernando Mendoza NFL Draft Projection

I am projecting Fernando Mendoza will be drafted No. 1 overall by the Las Vegas Raiders.

Fernando Mendoza Mock Draft

At this rate, Mendoza is a near-lock to go No. 1. That means the only way the Raiders don’t end up with him is if they trade down.

There is a reasonable case for selling the pick. The Raiders’ overall 53-man roster woefully bereft of talent, and Geno Smith’s contract will probably remain on the books for at least one more year. 

Since Mendoza was seen as a more middling prospect just a couple of games ago, some teambuilders could make the case that the Raiders could add more to their depleted roster by trading down to No. 3 (Arizona) or No. 6 (Cleveland) and building out their talent on the line of scrimmage. 

An older quarterback handing off to Ashton Jeanty and a great offensive line, aided by an optimized pass rush, could make the Raiders pretty respectable in 2026. 

Will they do any of that? I doubt it. See you in Las Vegas this fall, Mr. Mendoza.