College Football National Championship Odds: Georgia Favored In Week 4

This 2024 college football season will be a historic one. The FBS level of NCAA football will play its first-ever expanded playoff, with 12 teams facing qualifying for the draw instead of four.

There’s never been a more exciting time in the college football odds market. The BetMGM online sportsbook has several futures options available for bettors.

College Football National Championship Odds 2024

College Football National Championship Prediction

Based on the current futures market, the Georgia Bulldogs have an implied 23.5% chance to win the college football national championship.

Ohio State (+375, 22.2%) is the second most likely to win the national championship, followed by Texas (+550, 15.4%).

College Football National Championship Odds: Can Anyone Stop Georgia & Ohio State?

The 2024 college football season has already seen plenty of fireworks, but nothing has truly changed the status quo – at least as far as the national championship odds are concerned.

In 2024, it’s Ohio State and Georgia. Then, it’s everybody else.

It’s been like this for at least six months. Georgia opened the 2024 market as a heavy favorite, and Ohio State bettors slammed the Buckeyes for weeks through the winter and spring. At one point, the two teams were briefly co-favorites before Georgia buyback pushed them ahead again.

As of Sept. 9, Georgia and Ohio State accounted for 29.1% of the tickets and 36.5% of the handle in the college football national championship market. 

These are staggering numbers that clearly state the prevailing market theory: The market sees a duopoly with these two absolutely loaded rosters, and everyone else is playing catch-up. 

Texas, Oregon Challenge For Supremacy In New Conferences

One of the biggest stories of the 2024 season centers around conference realignment. With several major programs having entered the SEC and Big Ten, college football fans are expecting a handful of major contests between the old guard and the new guys. 

Texas and Oregon mark the most high-profile of the conference movers.

The Longhorns (+550) are the only CFP participant from last season that returns its coach and quarterback for 2024, which explains why Texas football odds are so high in the championship table.

In fact, Texas is expected to be the primary challenger to Georgia in the SEC and will host the Bulldogs in an outright head-to-head contest on Oct. 19. As it happens, BetMGM has already priced a number of high-profile regular-season college football spreads for 2024; currently, Georgia is a 1.5-point road favorite.

Oregon (+1100) is the other conference mover to keep an eye on. Like Texas, the Ducks are expected to be an immediate contender in their new conference, challenging the aforementioned Buckeyes for Big Ten supremacy. 

Oregon will also get the chance to host its new conference favorite during the regular season. Unlike Texas, though, the market has flipped the Ducks into a favorite.

Either way, the Longhorns and Ducks are still attracting plenty of attention in the championship odds market. As of Sept. 9, Texas accounted for 9.1% of all tickets and 8.6% of handle, which was third among all teams. Oregon had 6.5% of all tickets – smaller than Texas, Georgia, and Ohio State, yet still a larger share than all other NCAA football teams.

Year Two of the Coach Prime Experience

The 2023 season has come and gone, but we’re still talking about Colorado football odds. That’s because Deion Sanders – whatever else he might be – is a world-class master of smoke, clout, and public relations. 

For most of the 2023 season, BetMGM carried a heavy liability on Colorado in the national championship odds market. After a hot start for Colorado that came with plenty of flare and soundbites, bettors were rushing the counter for Colorado futures that often went longer than 100-to-1. 

As a result, Colorado was the top college football futures liability at BetMGM. I imagine this was probably true for other sportsbooks, too. 

Something similar has played out this offseason, with bettors diving back into the championship market with Sanders and Colorado. The Buffs opened at +20000 and were trimmed to +15000 by Week 1 … which is still a giant potential return.

As of Sept. 9, 2.5% of all tickets in the national championship market are behind Colorado. That makes the Buffaloes the No. 12 most-bet team.

At such a steep price, that popularity made Colorado the No. 2 financial liability at BetMGM for most of the summer, with Ohio State topping the list. (I wrote more about the crazy appetite for Ohio State championship odds during the offseason.)

If Colorado’s Week 2 performance at Nebraska was any indication, though, the sports traders at BetMGM don’t have too much to worry about.

Longshot National Championship Odds

College Football Odds: Finding Value in the 2024 National Championship Market

Every year, there’s a lot of discussion of “value” in this part of the college football odds table. Here’s a question I field nearly every summer: “Sure, you can bet on Alabama to win another national championship at short odds, but wouldn’t you rather have Kansas State at 80-to-1?”

Chris Klieman is an excellent coach who I am a huge fan of, and Kansas State may indeed compete for another conference championship this season. But any intrinsic “value” that may exist here is dwarfed by the fairly obvious reality that Kansas State has zero chance of winning a national championship next season.

I call this the Utah rule. A few years ago, Utah was a trendy pick to win the national championship at +7500. Paul Finebaum would bring guests on to talk about the Utes. ESPN Radio loved them. Talking heads would slide them in as their fourth and final playoff pick throughout the summer.

And here’s the thing: Utah nearly won the Pac-12 and made the playoff! 

They ultimately choked pretty hard in the conference title game to Oregon and never had a shot at the Final Four. Even if they hadn’t, would Utah really have stood a chance in a four-team playoff against multiple SEC opponents? Or Ohio State? It’s… unlikely.

As a general rule, I don’t bet venture down this far when hunting for futures in the college football championship odds market. I might bet on a dark horse to win its conference or make the playoff, as I did with TCU last season. 

But national championships are nearly always won by known goliaths with warehouses full of blue-chip recruits and future NFL players. That’s just the way this sport goes. When it comes to buying a national championship ticket, it’s usually prudent to keep your eyes above the +5000 line.

Recent College Football Champions

The CFP is moving to a 12-team model, and that’s good for getting more teams and fans involved with the product. 

However, I don’t expect much to change in terms of who actually wins the championship every year. College football odds will continue to be dominated by a small group of elite rosters and coaches, at least as far as the championship game is concerned.

As the College Football Playoff schedule gets closer, remember the history of this sport. Unlike basketball, major upsets of dominant teams just aren’t that common. 

For more on the history of championships, you can also check out my full, historical list of college football national champions by year.

College Football National Championship History (CFP Era)