Heisman Trophy Odds & Betting Favorites For 2026

The 2026 college football season is still many months away. Most fans won’t even start thinking about the fall schedule until after the spring game and NFL Draft.

But there’s already good news in the world of college football odds. BetMGM’s trading team has posted early Heisman Trophy odds for 2026, and enterprising early researchers can set up early positions – perhaps months before the market becomes truly efficient.

Every year, I go very deep into Heisman betting research, breaking down the market name by name. This year will be no exception. Below is an early, name-by-name look at the developing market for college football’s top award.

Heisman Trophy Odds 2026

Heisman Trophy Prediction 2026

Based on the current futures market, CJ Carr and Arch Manning each have an implied 11.8% chance to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy.

Heisman Odds: CJ Carr

CJ Carr, the Notre Dame quarterback, is currently +750 to win the Heisman Trophy.

The early 2026 Heisman favorite may surprise some college football fans, as Carr wasn’t even the most popular Heisman bet on his own team last year.

But Carr, a true freshman in 2025, was highly efficient in operating the Irish offense throughout last season. He’ll be poised to do so again this year.

That said, betting Carr at the top of the preseason market probably isn’t necessarily. If you like Carr as a Heisman candidate, there’s a strong chance you’ll be able to get him at a better price than this as the year progresses.

Heisman Odds: Arch Manning

Arch Manning, the Texas quarterback, is currently +750 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Manning had insanely high expectations ahead of his 2025 debut as the full-time starter for Texas. He disappointed most college football fans with his lukewarm play throughout 2025, but he was a victim of his own last name more than anything else.

Heisman bettors were big on Manning in the early portions of the 2025 season. That’s especially true at BetMGM, where Manning continued to be the most popular Heisman ticket deep into October, when it was clear he wasn’t going to win any major awards.

It will be interesting to see if this year’s preseason betting market is more cautious with Manning this season. Some bettors may be willing to swallow the risk of repeat disappointment for the upside – assuming they see any to begin with.

Heisman Odds: Trinidad Chambliss

Trinidad Chambliss, the Ole Miss quarterback, is currently +900 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Chambliss was granted an injunction in February that will allow him a sixth year of eligibility at Ole Miss.

Assuming that status holds up throughout the year, Chambliss will be an excellent target for Heisman bettors. It’s no surprise to see him enter the market at such a short price.

Heisman Odds: Dante Moore

Dante Moore, the Oregon quarterback, is currently +1200 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Oregon’s adept dual-threat quarterback returned to Eugene for 2026 rather than enter the 2026 NFL Draft.

That’s good news for Ducks fans, who now stand an excellent chance to watch their team in the College Football Playoff for a third straight year.

As far as the Heisman market goes, this price may be a little optimistic for Moore. Oregon quarterbacks have piled up major stats and CFP exposure over the past several years, and they’ve typically been prominent Heisman betting targets as a result. But overall, the Oregon quarterback sample has shown higher floors but capped ceilings, which makes it tough to buy a known commodity like Moore at such a short preseason price.

Heisman Odds: Julian Sayin

Julian Sayin, the Ohio State quarterback, is currently +1100 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Sayin spent time as the Heisman favorite in November 2025 and was the clear choice of some analysts all the way up until the Big Ten championship game. In the context of Ohio State’s slow pace of play, his raw counting stats upgraded from good to great.

The problem with Sayin – which I identified early – was that Ohio State was a reigning national champion beating up on a bunch of mediocre conference opponents. When Sayin finally faced real pressure in games against Michigan and Indiana, he looked like the good-not-great freshman quarterback with lots of growth left in front of him.

Sayin is one of the deepest handicaps available in this offseason Heisman market because there’s a lot of ways to read his profile from here. How much of a narrative bump was he really getting with last year’s team? How does his play change with the OC move from Brian Hartline to Arthur Smith? What kind of leap does he take from freshman to sophomore? How much does Carnell Tate’s departure matter?

Depending on your answers to those questions, Sayin could be a great preseason buy with a winning ceiling.

Heisman Odds: Josh Hoover

Josh Hoover, the Indiana quarterback, is currently +1200 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Hoover has been a quietly good starting quarterback at TCU since 2023. He’s thrown for 71 touchdowns and 9,600 yards in about 2.5 seasons in Fort Worth.

Hoover is using his last gasp of NCAA eligibility to make a high-profile move to Indiana, where he’ll presumably be well-compensated as the likely starting quarterback of the reigning national champions.

The mere fact that Hoover is the starting quarterback for Curt Cignetti’s Indiana program makes him relevant for the Heisman. But I would argue Hoover has actually been a lot better at TCU than Fernando Mendoza ever was at Cal, which makes him an interesting Heisman candidate to evaluate.

So much of the quarterback position is processing power, intuition, leadership, and effective decision-making. It’s hard to compare and project guys across programs like this. But if you’re of the belief that Mendoza’s success was as much about Cignetti’s brilliance as anything else, Hoover should be a near-automatic preseason Heisman bet for you – especially at this price point.

Heisman Odds: Jeremiah Smith

Jeremiah Smith, the Ohio State wide receiver, is currently +1200 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Smith ended the 2025 college football season as the No. 1 most popular Heisman ticket at BetMGM, and he will surely enjoy similar popularity in the upcoming season.

As was the case last year, the fundamental question for Smith’s Heisman candidacy isn’t whether or not he’s good enough. (He is.)

Instead, it’s what conditions would have to manifest in order for a wide receiver to win the award over an immensely deep and talented class of high-level college quarterbacks. That group includes his own quarterback, Sayin.

Without a good answer to that question, Smith is a great player, but not necessarily a great Heisman bet.

Heisman Odds: Darian Mensah

Darian Mensah, the Miami (FL) quarterback, is currently +1300 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Were the Hurricanes a moment or a movement? As Miami looked to reload following its run to the national title game, it snagged Mensah from 2025 ACC champion Duke. (The Blue Devils, in turn, had yanked Mensah from Tulane during the previous offseason.)

Mensah quietly put up huge stats in 2025, giving Duke the offensive pop it needed to ultimately win the conference as a pretty flawed team. His 3,973 passing yards ranked second in FBS, trailing only North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker. 

Mensah’s arrival was not uncomplicated, as Duke actually sued its former quarterback for breach of contract. (Thanks again, NIL landscape.) But with Mensah’s ability and eligibility at Miami now seemingly settled, the expectation is that Miami has found its mercenary transfer for the third year in a row. 

That’s relevant for understanding the market and expectations for new Miami quarterbacks. Cam Ward and Carson Beck were both good quarterbacks, and the former even went No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft. But neither were able to catch on in crowded Heisman markets.

Mensah remains a talented quarterback who could put up huge numbers in Coral Gables. Whether or not his Heisman odds will fare better than Miami’s futures prospects remains to be seen.

Heisman Odds: Sam Leavitt

Sam Leavitt, the LSU quarterback, is currently +1600 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Sam Leavitt never blew anyone away at Arizona State, but he was a very efficient dual-threat quarterback – particularly in 2024, when the Sun Devils won the Big 12 and nearly beat Texas in the College Football Playoff.

Perhaps Leavitt’s lack of national acclaim was due to his jersey, not his game. That’s the bet you’re making with a preseason Leavitt Heisman ticket – that Leavitt is healthy and ready for primetime with a relocation to Baton Rouge.

Sam Leavitt @ +1600

Heisman Odds: Marcel Reed

Marcel Reed, the Texas A&M quarterback, is currently +2500 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Unless you were absolutely locked into the week-by-week developments of the 2025 Heisman race, you may not remember that Reed was live in the awards market as late as Week 13. The Aggies were undefeated, and Reed was one of four players who were all shorter than 7-to-1. (The others were Sayin, Fernando Mendoza, and Ty Simpson.)

What happened next? Texas A&M lost its regular-season finale at Texas, then crashed out of the playoffs with a first-round loss to eventual national runner-up Miami.

As a result, Texas A&M – undefeated in mid-November! – is barely remembered. Reed’s Heisman relevance has been all but memory-holed. 

That makes Reed a pretty interesting midrange Heisman candidate for 2026. He’s not Johnny Manziel or anything, but he is a dual-threat with more than 450 rushing yards in back-to-back years. He was a top 25 quarterback last season in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and QBR. The big criticism is that he throws too many picks. 

The SEC feels completely up for grabs this year, and that could compound to the gain of Reed and Texas A&M. At +2500, there’s a lot of upside here.

Marcel Reed @ +2500

Previous Heisman Trophy Winners