Georgia State vs Arkansas State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 8

• The Georgia State Panthers are a -1.5 point favorite vs. the Arkansas State Red Wolves
• Georgia State vs. Arkansas State Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN+

Georgia State (4-2) visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on Arkansas State (3-4) on Oct. 24 in Jonesboro, AR. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.

The Georgia State Panthers are betting favorites in Week 8, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Georgia State vs. Arkansas State Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

Bet now on Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Georgia State Panthers & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Georgia State vs. Arkansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Georgia State vs Arkansas State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Georgia State will win this game with 53.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Georgia State Panthers and the Arkansas State Red Wolves, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Georgia State vs Arkansas State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Georgia State will cover the spread with 52.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Georgia State Best Bets Today

• Georgia State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
• Georgia State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 34% ROI)
• Georgia State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+3.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• Georgia State have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Georgia State has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Arkansas State Best Bets Today

• Arkansas State has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Arkansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games (+1.75 Units / 2% ROI)

Georgia State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia State Panthers is 5-1 against the spread this college football season (+3.9 Units / 58.65% ROI).

• Georgia State is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 7.37% ROI
• Georgia State is 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.07% ROI
• Georgia State is 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.35 Units / -35.88% ROI

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas State Red Wolves is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI).

• Arkansas State is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -2.71% ROI
• Arkansas State is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
• Arkansas State is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Georgia State: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

Georgia State is 1-12 (.077) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2024 season– T-6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .342

Georgia State is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .472

Georgia State is 2-10 (.167) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .492

Georgia State was winless (0-6) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia State

Arkansas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612

Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

Arkansas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .632

Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 35th-best in FBS; Average: .429

Matchup Notes for Georgia State vs. Arkansas State

Arkansas State’s offense threw for 3,374 passing yards in 13 games (259.5 YPG) last season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense allowed 240.8 passing yards per game last season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s RBs averaged just 5.3 yards after the catch last season — 8th-worst among FBS RBs. Georgia State’s defense allowed 13.1 RAC last season — T-9th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s QBs threw for 3,374 passing yards in 13 games (259.5 YPG) last season — 33rd-best among FBS teams. Georgia State’s defense allowed 240.8 passing yards per game last season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Georgia State’s WRs averaged 24.9 targets per game last season — 21st-highest among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 13.5 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Georgia State’s WRs had 174 receptions in 12 games (14.5 per game) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 13.5 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Georgia State’s offense has thrown for 7,576 passing yards in 30 games (252.5 YPG) since the 2024 season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 234.1 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Georgia State Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State have thrown 0 TDs on 45 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 17.6

Georgia State QBs have 8 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Georgia State RBs caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams

Georgia State RBs were targeted 4.9 times per game (59/12) in the 2nd half last season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Georgia State RBs picked up first downs on 4 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-5th-most among FBS Teams

Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State RBs carried the ball 9 times on 3rd down last week– most among FBS Teams

Arkansas State’s offense threw for 3,374 passing yards in 13 games (259.5 YPG) last season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. Georgia State’s defense allowed 240.8 passing yards per game last season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s RBs averaged just 5.3 yards after the catch last season — 8th-worst among FBS RBs. Georgia State’s defense allowed 13.1 RAC last season — T-9th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s QBs threw for 3,374 passing yards in 13 games (259.5 YPG) last season — 33rd-best among FBS teams. Georgia State’s defense allowed 240.8 passing yards per game last season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State TEs averaged just 7.0 yards per reception (302 yards/43 catches) last season– T-5th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

Georgia State Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State has allowed 6.4 touchdowns per interception (32 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Georgia State intercepted 3 of 339 attempts (113.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 37.8

Georgia State allowed 8.3 touchdowns per interception (25 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

Georgia State has intercepted 5 of 511 attempts (102.2 pass attempts per int.) since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 39.0

Georgia State did not tackle opponents for a loss on any of 34 rushing attempts on 3rd and short last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Arkansas State Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State has averaged a sack every 54.7 pass attempts (164 Pass Attempts/3 Sacks) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.4

Arkansas State has averaged a sack every 54.7 pass attempts (164 Pass Attempts/3 Sacks) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 14.5

Arkansas State has allowed first downs on 43% of pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 21%

Arkansas State did not record a sack (32 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.3

Arkansas State has averaged 0.4 sacks per game this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

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