Georgia State vs UCF Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

• The UCF Knights are a -18.5 point favorite vs. the Georgia State Panthers
• Georgia State vs. UCF Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN+

Georgia State (2-0) visit Acrisure Bounce House to take on UCF (1-1) on Sep. 19 in Orlando, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.

The UCF Knights are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -18.5 (-108).

The Georgia State vs. UCF Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Georgia State vs. UCF Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Georgia State vs UCF Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 89.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Georgia State Panthers and the UCF Knights, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Georgia State vs UCF Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCF will cover the spread with 65.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on UCF Knights vs Georgia State Panthers and all games with BetMGM

Georgia State Best Bets Today

• Georgia State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 36% ROI)
• Georgia State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Georgia State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+3.10 Units / 6% ROI)
• Georgia State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• Georgia State have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)

UCF Best Bets Today

• UCF have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.30 Units / 66% ROI)
• UCF have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 61% ROI)
• UCF has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+2.05 Units / 5% ROI)
• UCF has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• UCF has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+0.95 Units / 0% ROI)

Georgia State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia State Panthers is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Georgia State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 8.54% ROI
• Georgia State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Georgia State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

UCF Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCF Knights is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 88.89% ROI).

• UCF is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
• UCF is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• UCF is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Georgia State: Keys to the Game vs. UCF

Georgia State was winless (0-6) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Georgia State was 1-9 (.100) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .372

Georgia State was 2-8 (.200) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 14th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .406

Georgia State was 1-9 (.100) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: .414

UCF: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia State

UCF was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459

UCF was 1-7 (.125) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .479

UCF was 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500

UCF was 1-7 (.125) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515

Matchup Notes for Georgia State vs. UCF

UCF averaged just 10.4 yards after the catch last season — T-5th-worst among Power 5 skill players. Georgia State’s defense allowed 13.1 RAC last season — 5th-worst among NonP5 defenses.

UCF averaged just 10.4 yards after the catch last season — T-20th-worst among FBS skill players. Georgia State’s defense allowed 13.1 RAC last season — 5th-worst among NonP5 defenses.

UCF’s WRs had just 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-4th-worst among FBS WRs. Georgia State’s defense allowed 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-7th-worst among FBS defenses.

Georgia State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 7.2% of 471 attempts last season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. UCF’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.4% of attempts last season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State gained 3,027 yards on 286 receptions (just 10.6 YPR) last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS skill players. UCF’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State gained 3,027 yards on 286 receptions (just 10.6 YPR) last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS skill players. UCF’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Georgia State Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 7.2% of 471 attempts last season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. UCF’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.4% of attempts last season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State gained 3,027 yards on 286 receptions (just 10.6 YPR) last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS skill players. UCF’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia State Skill Players had no touchdowns on 16 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.9

Georgia State gained 3,027 yards on 286 receptions (just 10.6 YPR) last season — T-22nd-worst among FBS skill players. UCF’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Georgia State RBs caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams

UCF Offensive Stats & Trends

UCF WRs averaged a touchdown every 35.2 receptions (141 Rec/4 TDs) last season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

UCF WRs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

UCF WRs averaged a touchdown every 35.2 receptions (141 Rec/4 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.0

UCF WRs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

UCF WRs averaged just 8.7 yards per reception (478 yards/55 catches) on 1st down last season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 13.2

Georgia State Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia State intercepted 3 of 339 attempts (113.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 37.8

Georgia State allowed 8.3 touchdowns per interception (25 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

Georgia State allowed 8.3 touchdowns per interception (25 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Georgia State intercepted 3 of 339 attempts (113.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: 38.5

Georgia State allowed passes of 20+ yards on 50 of 339 attempts (15%) last season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%

UCF Defensive Stats & Trends

UCF did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

UCF allowed opponents to catch 33 of 46 passes (72% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 57%

UCF allowed 3.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (107 yards / 32 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.4

UCF did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.4

UCF allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (33 completions/47 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 56%

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