Illinois vs Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Ohio State Buckeyes are a -27.5 point favorite vs. the Illinois Fighting Illini
• Illinois vs. Ohio State Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
• TV Channel: FOX

Illinois (2-1) visit Ohio Stadium to take on Ohio State (2-1) on Sep. 26 in Columbus, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -27.5 (-108).

The Illinois vs. Ohio State Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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Illinois vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Illinois vs Ohio State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 94.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Ohio State Buckeyes, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Illinois vs Ohio State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 69.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Illinois Best Bets Today

• Illinois has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+4.80 Units / 3% ROI)
• Illinois has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.15 Units / 8% ROI)
• Illinois have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
• Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 1% ROI)

Ohio State Best Bets Today

• Ohio State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+8.05 Units / 3% ROI)
• Ohio State have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
• Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+7.00 Units / 1% ROI)
• Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• Ohio State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Illinois Fighting Illini is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

• Illinois is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -4.17% ROI
• Illinois is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Illinois is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio State Buckeyes is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Ohio State is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
• Ohio State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
• Ohio State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

Illinois is 8-2 (.800) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .636

Illinois was 9-1 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .624

Illinois was 9-1 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– 6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .657

Illinois was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .645

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois

Ohio State was 11-1 (.917) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Ohio State was 14-1 (.933) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .575

Ohio State is undefeated (9-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .674

Ohio State was 14-1 (.933) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .618

Matchup Notes for Illinois vs. Ohio State

Ohio State’s TEs had 74 receptions in 14 games (5.3 per game) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Illinois’s defense allowed 21.0 receptions per game last season — 23rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s TEs had 74 receptions in 14 games (5.3 per game) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Illinois’s defense allowed 21.0 receptions per game last season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Ohio State’s WRs has averaged 14.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 11.0 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — 15th-best among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s TEs had 38 receptions in 13 games (just 2.9 per game) last season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 14.9 receptions per game last season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s RBs averaged 9.2 yards after the catch last season — T-32nd-best among FBS RBs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 8.7 RAC last season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois’s TEs had 38 receptions in 13 games (just 2.9 per game) last season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 14.9 receptions per game last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

Illinois TEs averaged 18.0 yards per reception (36 yards/2 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.1

Illinois’s TEs had 38 receptions in 13 games (just 2.9 per game) last season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 14.9 receptions per game last season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

Illinois’s RBs averaged 9.2 yards after the catch last season — T-32nd-best among FBS RBs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 8.7 RAC last season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois’s TEs had 38 receptions in 13 games (just 2.9 per game) last season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 14.9 receptions per game last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois Skill Players averaged 17.8 yards per reception (551 yards/31 catches) on 3rd and long last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.7

Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State Skill Players have caught 313 of 395 passes (79% Reception Pct) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 65%

Ohio State WRs have caught 193 of 251 passes (77% Reception Pct) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Ohio State Skill Players have caught 34 of 40 passes (85% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Ohio State WRs have been targeted 24 times in the 4th quarter this season– fewest among Power Conference Teams

Ohio State WRs have averaged 16.4 yards per reception (296 yards/18 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.4

Illinois Defensive Stats & Trends

Illinois has no interceptions and 17 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.7

Illinois tackled opponents for a loss on just 48 of 441 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Illinois had no interceptions and 17 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.7

Illinois tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 67 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Illinois tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 67 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Ohio State Defensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 425 carries (85 Carries Per TD) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 25.8

Ohio State has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 425 carries (85 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.1

Ohio State has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 425 carries (85 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 24

Ohio State opponents has averaged 48.9 Passing Attempts per TD (342 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 21.3

Ohio State’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 28% of PATs last season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

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