- The Louisville Cardinals are a -6 point favorite vs. the North Carolina State Wolfpack
- Louisville vs. North Carolina State Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
- TV Channel: ACCN
Louisville (2-2) visit Carter-Finley Stadium to take on North Carolina State (2-2) on Oct. 3 in Raleigh, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.
The Louisville Cardinals are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -6 (+110).
The Louisville vs. North Carolina State Over/Under is 60.5 total points.
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Louisville vs. North Carolina State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Louisville | -6 +110 | 60.5 -140 | -185 |
| North Carolina State | +6 -145 | 60.5 +105 | +150 |
Louisville vs North Carolina State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 56.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Louisville Cardinals and the North Carolina State Wolfpack, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Louisville vs North Carolina State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 50.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Louisville Best Bets Today
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+6.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- Louisville have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.55 Units / 4% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)
North Carolina State Best Bets Today
- NC State has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- NC State have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- NC State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.80 Units / 8% ROI)
Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisville Cardinals is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Louisville is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -65.25% ROI
- Louisville is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
- Louisville is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
North Carolina State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Carolina State Wolfpack is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
- North Carolina State is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- North Carolina State is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
- North Carolina State is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina State
Louisville was 8-2 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .604
Louisville was 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .647
Louisville was 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .602
Louisville is 11-4 (.733) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .626
North Carolina State: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville
North Carolina State was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492
North Carolina State was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460
NC State is 10-5 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2024 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .440
North Carolina State was 2-7 (.222) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .454
Matchup Notes for Louisville vs. North Carolina State
NC State’s WRs gained 2,170 yards on 160 receptions (13.6 YPR) last season — 4th-best among ACC WRs. Louisville’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.
NC State’s WRs gained 2,170 yards on 160 receptions (13.6 YPR) last season — 4th-best among ACC WRs. Louisville’s defense allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception last season — 2nd-best among ACC defenses.
NC State’s RBs averaged just 6.1 yards after the catch last season — T-28th-worst among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense allowed just 10.3 RAC last season — T-17th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s WRs has averaged 13.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 5th-best among ACC WRs. NC State’s defense has allowed 11.8 RAC since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville had just 219.5 receiving yards per game last season — 4th-worst among ACC skill players. NC State’s defense allowed 273.2 receiving yards per game last season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s WRs averaged just 11.6 yards after the catch last season — 2nd-worst among ACC WRs. NC State’s defense allowed 13.5 RAC to WRs last season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends
Louisville RBs have averaged 7.9 Yards per Carry (893 yards/113 carries) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Louisville WRs had no touchdowns on 19 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8.5
Louisville RBs have averaged 6.7 Yards per Carry (2,664 yards/396 carries) since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Louisville RBs have averaged 7.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (951 yards / 123 touches) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– T-2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Louisville RBs have averaged 9.6 Yards per Carry (191 yards/20 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3
North Carolina State Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina State RBs averaged 8.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (816 yards / 94 touches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
North Carolina State TEs had 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among Power Conference Teams
North Carolina State RBs had 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams
North Carolina State TEs had 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams
North Carolina State Skill Players caught 12 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter last season– T-most among FBS Teams
Louisville Defensive Stats & Trends
Louisville has tackled opponents for a loss on just 9 of 156 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 17%.
Louisville has tackled opponents for a loss on just 9 of 156 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of 92% (11 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
Louisville has tackled opponents for a loss on just 7 of 81 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 12th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of 92% (11 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 62%
North Carolina State Defensive Stats & Trends
NC State has allowed 4 TD passes in close and late situations this season– T-most in FBS
North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 25 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.
NC State has averaged a sack every 24.0 pass attempts (577 Pass Attempts/24 Sacks) since the 2024 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0
NC State has allowed 5 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
NC State has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (4/110) this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
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