We haven’t quite reached NFL tank season, but we may be close. As the calendar approaches November, the known discrepancies between NFL teams are growing.
That’s going to lead to big NFL spreads, both this Sunday and the Sundays still to come.
If you’re playing any NFL contests, how you handle those large spreads can be a major chance to differentiate yourself from your opponents.
As usual, this is a look at some potential NFL bets worth considering, with a focus on contest play and game theory. Here are two sides I would strongly consider for Week 7.
Texans vs. Giants Prediction
The Giants are a team with a winning record. The Texans are a team with a losing record, returning from England to play an inter-conference game.
Perhaps it’s not surprising that a large majority of the action among BetMGM players favors the Giants’ side in this game. The public seems to be thinking: “If it’s two bad teams playing, I’ll take the one getting the 10.5 points.”
But this line has been moving toward Houston all week, and I agree with the movement. Houston is healthy, CJ Stroud is making good decisions, and the brutal early-season schedule the Texans had is now finally over.
The Texans lost to Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, and Indianapolis. This Giants offense, now led by JJ McCarthy, is not that.
Two weeks ago, winless Houston closed as more than a touchdown favorite on the road against divisional opponent Tennessee. It was an easy cover. I expect a similar game script on Sunday against the Giants.
NFL Contest Prediction: Texans -10.5
Seahawks vs. Chiefs Prediction
The Chiefs are the last undefeated team in the AFC, but the schedule hasn’t been Murderers’ Row. Kansas City has eked out wins against Indianapolis and Las Vegas. There was a Week 1 home blowout against Denver. There were wins against the Dolphins and Chargers, who are currently a combined 0-11.
Comparatively, the Seahawks have had a way harder go of it, playing NFC West divisional games on top of challenging road trips to Denver and the East Coast. They opened with a Super Bowl rematch against New England.
In this game, the record difference is a product of the strength of schedules.
At BetMGM, the spread betting activity on this game favors Kansas City by a 3-to-1 margin. But Seattle needs the game much more, has the better defense, and is far more tested to this point than the Chiefs.
At a favorable number like -2.5, I like a zag against Kansas City.
NFL Contest Prediction: Seahawks -2.5
Best Contest Bets for NFL Week 7
- Texans -10.5
- Seahawks -2.5
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