2023 Super Bowl Odds: Futures Odds for This Year’s NFL Champion

All year long, the BetMGM online sportsbook offers the most popular market for NFL odds: Super Bowl odds.

Super Bowl LVIII is scheduled for next February, when the champion of the 2023 NFL season will be crowned. 

Who Has the Best Odds to Win the Super Bowl?

According to the current betting odds at BetMGM, the San Francisco 49ers are +550 favorites to win this season’s Super Bowl LVIII.

NFL Odds for Super Bowl LVIII

Super Bowl 2024 Date: When is the Super Bowl?

Next year’s big game – Super Bowl LVIII – will be played on Sunday, February 11, 2024.

NFL Super Bowl Odds: Chiefs, Bills Remain Atop the AFC

The NFL power structure revolves around the elite young quarterbacks atop the AFC. The top NFL conference has been won by either Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes’ team for four straight seasons, with Josh Allen’s Bills also heavily in the mix.

Because of the power struggle rotating through Buffalo and Kansas City, it’s not terribly surprising that two of the top favorites for next year’s Super Bowl are the Chiefs (+600) and Bills (+900).

Whoever wins the AFC may very likely be the favorite in this season’s Super Bowl LVIII.

Other AFC teams have a path, but their odds are considerably longer. The Browns (+2200) and Chargers (+2500) are also lurking as hypothetical threats. 

The Ravens moved from +2500 to +1800 on the back of Lamar Jackson’s new contract. Bettors who bought low on faith that Lamar would eventually come home have been rewarded with some very nice relative market value. After a 2-1 start, they’re now down to +1600.

The best bet in the middle of the board could be the Jaguars (+3000), who many analysts tabbed as the next up-and-coming team after last season’s playoff run.

Dolphins Super Bowl Odds: Do Miami Fans Finally Have a True Contender?

One of the trendiest teams of the summer has been the Miami Dolphins, who moved down from +3000 to +2000 throughout June and July. The number eventually resettled at +2500, then lurched again to +2000 after Miami’s Week 1 road win against the Chargers. After Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles during his opening possession with the Jets, the Dolphins surged again to +1600.

At BetMGM, a July analysis of the overall market revealed that 4.5% of all Super Bowl bets and 4.9% of all Super Bowl handle were backing Miami. (Once square money began to flood the market in August, those numbers dropped to 2.8% of tickets and 2.0% of handle by Sept. 5.)

Miami’s AFC championship odds have shown a commensurate move, inching up the table from +1800 to +500. They’re currently second in the AFC table, behind only the Chiefs (+300).

The argument against Miami is a standard one for any mid-table AFC team: traffic. The AFC is loaded with mega-talented quarterbacks and stacked trophy cases, which means a team like Miami will need to clear a heavy field of contenders. 

At +900, Dolphins Super Bowl bettors aren’t getting anything close to the best of the number at this point, nor are they getting an easy path to the championship. 

I really do get what people see in the #Dolphins (+2000). The offseason hype is reasonable.

However, key difference between Dolphins hype and Lions hype is that Miami has to win a division with Allen & Rodgers, then run through AFC with Burrow & Mahomes. That’s a LOT of traffic

— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) July 5, 2023

Still, Miami has attracted some sharp attention throughout the summer, and one major reason is the new coaching staff. Mike McDaniel remains in place as the head coach and offensive brain trust, but new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and a new cast of defensive assistants could totally revolutionize a Miami defense that had plenty of room for improvement.

PFF graded the 2022 Dolphins as 16th in overall defense and 31st in coverage.

The feeling among some bettors is that the defensive pieces that Miami has (and acquired in the offseason) are a strong fit for the aggressive system that Fangio will implement for this coming season. 

If Tua Tagovailoa posts a healthy season with numbers similar to the first portion of last season, the Dolphins could be one of the most complete teams in the NFL. 

NFL Super Bowl Odds: Eagles & 49ers Lead NFC

The Super Bowl betting market sees the NFC as top-heavy, with only four teams currently at 10-to-1 or better just to win the conference. 

Those teams are the Eagles (+300 to win the NFC/+750 to win the Super Bowl), 49ers (+240/+550), Cowboys (+450/+1000), and Lions (+900/+2200). All four posted impressive wins in Week 1.

The Eagles — the only team to climb in odds after the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft (+900 to +700) — and 49ers were the class of the NFC in 2022, with the Cowboys also challenging for the NFC East divisional title all the way until the end of the season.

The Lions, however, are a surprising presence this far up the board. Though the Lions didn’t make the playoffs, Detroit’s analytics-backed, go-for-it attitude evolved over the course of the season, eventually transforming the Lions into a team that few in the NFL wanted to face.

With offensive coordinator Ben Johnson returning to Detroit in 2023 and the NFC North looking as wide-open as ever, the Lions should be considered a real threat for the NFC title.

However, the real value in the NFC is likely down the board.

In a league that regularly produces worst-to-first turnaround stories and a conference odds table where 12 of 16 teams are +1200 or longer just to win the NFC, there is a monstrous amount of value right now just in identifying the next NFC team to pop. 

And there are a lot of candidates. 

Seattle (+1800/+4000) could make a run while tapping into the cheap quarterback formula with veteran Geno Smith. Their odds got two separate boosts up the table in May.

The Falcons (+2500/+5000) could lock down home-field advantage in the playoffs simply by playing in a putrid division.

Throw a few darts in this NFC Super Bowl market because someone will emerge from this bunched-up middle class with a real chance to win the conference.

NFL Injuries: Aaron Rodgers Tore His Achilles. Now What?

This summer, the New York Jets saw some of the most extreme hype of any recent NFL offseason, jumping into the status of real contending teams alongside the Ravens and Cowboys. 

That all changed minutes into the season, as 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon on the Jets’ first offensive drive of the season.

Unsurprisingly, the Jets’ Super Bowl odds plummeted immediately after the news was official. The Jets were adjusted from +1800 to +6600 in the Super Bowl odds market the morning after Week 1’s Monday Night Football game between the Jets and the Bills. 

The Jets haven’t won a game since. It would be no small miracle if Zach Wilson led this team to the playoffs, given the difficult schedule in front of them.

Odds to MISS the NFL Playoffs (Last Week ➡️ Now) at @BetMGM

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Bengals +165 to +105
Browns +150 to +120
Lions +240 to +155
Packers +100 to -130
Chargers -125 to -200
Vikings -250 to -300
Jets -275 to -450
Patriots -400 to -500
Broncos -350 to -600
Bears -450 to -1200

— John Ewing (@johnewing) September 20, 2023

Several other AFC teams were betting benefactors, as a large hole near the top of the market was created by the Jets’ absence. 

The Chiefs, already a favorite, moved from +700 to +650, though that was also aided by the news that star defensive tackle Chris Jones was returning to the team.

At BetMGM, a few of the other aftermath moves included:

• The Dolphins moved from 2000 to 1600.
• The Jaguars moved from 2500 to 1800.
• The Browns moved from 2500 to 1800. 
• The Chargers moved from 2500 to 2000.

Basically, if you were an AFC team with any semblance of Super Bowl relevance, you got upgraded on the back of the Jets’ misfortune.

Odds for Cowboys To Win the Super Bowl

Nobody loves to bet on their team quite like Dallas fans, which is why the Cowboys Super Bowl market is always a bit square. The numbers might be shaved down a bit just to insulate against the raw volume of a nationwide, annually optimistic fan base. 

Compare that against markets for the Jaguars or Chargers, who have famously apathetic fan bases and not much nationwide presence. 

Still, the Cowboys should be considered as a real contender for the next couple of years. Adding a top-end defensive presence like Micah Parsons – who only costs $4.7 million in 2023 – makes Dallas a real two-way team that can score on offense and earn key stops on defense. 

Money from both Ezekiel Elliott and La’el Collins’ contracts remains on the books for the 2023 season. But Dallas is finally getting close to fully moving off some of the bad contracts that have prevented the Cowboys from being a top-tier team over the last few years. 

The pressure remains on quarterback Dak Prescott, who carries the fourth-highest quarterback cap hit in the NFL this season. 

Bettors who believe Prescott can deliver results like a top-5 quarterback may want to buy into the market now.