Super Bowl Odds: The Early Market for Next Year’s NFL Champion

Super Bowl LVII is over, so another year of NFL odds has come and gone.

Of course, it’s never too early to start thinking about the next year’s odds, which is why the trading team at the BetMGM online sportsbook has already priced the market for next year’s Super Bowl odds.

Super Bowl 2024 Date: When is the Super Bowl?

Next year’s big game – Super Bowl LVIII – will be played on Sunday, February 11, 2024.

NFL Odds for Super Bowl LVIII

NFL Super Bowl Odds: Chiefs, Bills, Bengals Remain Atop the AFC

The NFL power structure revolves around the elite young quarterbacks atop the AFC. The top NFL conference has been won by either Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes’ team for four straight seasons, with Josh Allen’s Bills also heavily in the mix.

Because of the three-way power struggle rotating through Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Kansas City, it’s not terribly surprising that the three favorites for next year’s Super Bowl are the Chiefs (+550), Bills (+850), and Bengals (+900). 

Whoever wins the AFC will almost certainly be the favorite in next year’s Super Bowl.

Other AFC teams have a path, but their odds are considerably longer. The Jets’ Super Bowl odds have surged in the wake of Aaron Rodgers news – more on that in a bit – and the Chargers (+2000) are lurking as a hypothetical threat. 

The Ravens and Dolphins are sitting at +2500, but both have major quarterback baggage. If you’re confident that Baltimore can resolve its contract dispute with Lamar Jackson in a satisfactory manner, the Ravens could be worth a flier at this lucrative cost.

Miami, too, has the signs of an elite, Super Bowl-caliber offense… if you trust Tua Tagovailoa to return in 2023 with no signs of adverse health effects or declining play. 

The best bet in the middle of the board could be the Jaguars – also available at +2500 – whom many analysts tabbed as the next up-and-coming team after last season’s playoff run.

NFL Super Bowl Odds: Eagles Face Stiff Competition from 49ers

The Super Bowl betting market sees the NFC as  top-heavy, with only four teams currently at 10-to-1 or better just to win the conference. 

Those teams are the Eagles (+350 to win the NFC/+900 to win the Super Bowl), 49ers (+350/+900), Cowboys (+750/+1000), and Lions (+1000/+2500).

The Eagles and 49ers were the class of the NFC in 2022, with the Cowboys also challenging for the NFC East divisional title all the way until the end of the season.

The Lions, however, are a surprising presence this far up the board. Though the Lions didn’t make the playoffs, Detroit’s analytics-backed, go-for-it attitude evolved over the course of the season, eventually transforming the Lions into a team that few in the NFL wanted to face.

With offensive coordinator Ben Johnson returning to Detroit in 2023 and the NFC North looking as wide-open as ever, the Lions should be considered a real threat for the NFC title.

However, the real value in the NFC is likely down the board.

In a league that regularly produces worst-to-first turnaround stories and a conference odds table that 11 of 16 teams at +1600 or longer just to win the NFC, there’s a monstrous amount of value right now just in identifying the next NFC team to pop. 

There are a lot of candidates. 

The Giants, for example, could take the next step in challenging Philadelphia and Dallas in a loaded division. They’re +1600 to win the NFC and +4000 in the Super Bowl odds market. 

The Panthers (+2200 NFC, +5000 Super Bowl) could nail their quarterback selection in this year’s upcoming NFL Draft and become an instant contender. 

Seattle (+2800/+6600) could make a run if it’s tapped into the cheap quarterback formula with veteran Geno Smith.

The Falcons (+2800/+6600) could spend in free agency and lock down home-field advantage in the playoffs simply by playing in a putrid division.

Throw a few darts in this NFC Super Bowl market because someone will emerge from this bunched-up middle class with a real chance to win the conference.

Jets Odds to Win the Super Bowl

The Jets deserve their own section here, as news broke in March that Aaron Rodgers is trying to force his way to the Jets.

If the Jets can land a four-time NFL MVP to lead an offense with gobs of young talent at wide receiver – not to mention Robert Saleh’s defense, which ranked as the second overall unit in 2022, per PFF – then New York is an instant Super Bowl contender. They might even be the outright favorite.

If that does happen, the current +1400 price for a Jets’ Super Bowl will carry tremendous value. Rabid online sports betting interest in the Rodgers/Jets has already deflated the price from +2500, where the Jets opened in the market after Super Bowl LVII.

The problem is that the Jets have very little leverage to make this trade happen. Rodgers himself has even less. 

Rodgers’ announcement on Pat McAfee’s show that he intends to play in New York next season may make things increasingly uncomfortable with the Packers’ organization. Still, the side facing pressure is the Jets. 

After this announcement,  Jets fans and New York media bombarded the organization with criticism for dragging their feet on potential trade offers. That only increases Green Bay’s leverage to be more aggressive in seeking additional trade pieces, as the Packers are under no obligation to acquiesce to such a deal.

Rodgers is likely to get his way in the end. If he does, the Jets could be deprived of the assets they need to win, but the Jets will skyrocket to the top of the board; if he doesn’t. +1600 tickets won’t seem nearly as valuable as they do right now, and Jets bettors will feel foolish.

Odds for Cowboys to Win the Super Bowl

Nobody loves to bet on their team quite like Dallas fans, which is why the Cowboys Super Bowl market is always a bit square. The numbers might be shaved down a bit just to insulate against the raw volume of a nationwide, annually optimistic fan base. 

Compare that against markets for the Jaguars or Chargers, who have famously apathetic fan bases and not much nationwide presence. 

Still, the Cowboys should be considered as a real contender for the next couple of years. Adding a top-end defensive presence like Micah Parsons – who only costs $4.7 million in 2023 – makes Dallas a real two-way team that can score on offense and earn key stops on defense. 

Money from both Ezekiel Elliott and La’el Collins’ contracts remains on the books for the 2023 season. But Dallas is finally getting close to fully moving off some of the bad contracts that have prevented the Cowboys from being a top-tier team over the last few years. 

The pressure remains on quarterback Dak Prescott, who will be the seventh-highest-paid quarterback in the NFL this season. 

Bettors who believe Prescott can deliver results like a top-seven quarterback may want to buy into the market now.