Super Bowl Odds 2024: Futures Betting for This Year’s NFL Champion

Minutes after the Chiefs hoisted the Lombardi Trophy as winners of Super Bowl LVIII, the BetMGM online sportsbook posted odds for next season’s Super Bowl market.

Bettors who want to get involved in the early Super Bowl 59 odds market can stake a position now.

Odds to Win Super Bowl 2024

Super Bowl 59 Prediction: Who Will Win the Super Bowl This Year?

Based on the current futures market, the Kansas City Chiefs have an implied 15.4% chance to win the Super Bowl.

The 49ers (+650, 13.3%) are the second most likely to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Ravens (+1000, 9.1%).

Chiefs Super Bowl Odds Are Unsurprisingly Popular

The Chiefs have now won back-to-back Super Bowls, and Patrick Mahomes is arguably the most talented quarterback in the history of football. Of course the Chiefs are betting favorites as the 2024 season approaches. 

At BetMGM, a whopping 15.4% of tickets and 21.6% of the futures market handle were backing Kansas City to achieve the first-ever Super Bowl three-peat. Naturally, Mahomes is also the betting favorite in the NFL MVP odds market. 

If this isn’t the apex of the Chiefs’ market frenzy, we must at least be getting close. 

With the 2024 season approaching, many bettors will remember that Kansas City has won two championships in a row and three in four years. What bettors may not remember is that it was an awfully messy journey to the most recent title.

For the Chiefs, the 2023 schedule began with an upset loss (to Detroit). That set the tone for a regular season full of up-and-down performances and shaky offense. Travis Kelce turned 34 last year and has a lot of miles on his legs. Kansas City’s wide receiver corps was marred by drops and underachievement. Kansas City failed to score after halftime in several critical games.

It’s worth pointing out that the receiver issues may remain in 2024. Rashee Rice, the Chiefs’ 2023 breakout rookie who piled up 1,200 yards last season, has mounting legal issues stemming from two separate offseason incidents. For now, he remains suspended by the NFL.

New 2024 draftee Xavier Worthy is a burner, but he’s been held out of several offseason programs as a precaution because of a hamstring issue. (Missing large chunks of the offseason can be particularly damaging for NFL rookies.)

Free agent acquisition Hollywood Brown can also stretch the field but has struggled with drops and consistency throughout his career. 

But defensively, Kansas City should remain quite good, largely because the Chiefs extended Chris Jones’ contract. That means Chiefs bettors are once again betting on a good defense and an elite quarterback to survive the pitfalls of a very mediocre offense. 

I was a big proponent of fading Chiefs odds last season, and I remain skeptical this year … but then again, look how that turned out for me.

Super Bowl Contenders Take Aim At Kansas City

Much like last year, there is no shortage of talented teams that are looking to end Kansas City’s run. That’s particularly true in the loaded AFC, where Kansas City’s ability to win home-field advantage in the playoffs will remain in jeopardy in 2024. 

Cincinnati appeared in back-to-back AFC title games in 2021 and 2022, which means the Bengals will be popular targets with Joe Burrow healthy again. So far, about 5% of tickets at BetMGM are behind the Bengals, though that number should tick up once the Burrow-to-Chase hotline heats up again.

The Ravens, who played the Chiefs close in last season’s AFC championship game, account for nearly 6% of all tickets. 

Josh Allen and the Bills, another established Chiefs rival, account for 4.4% of tickets and 5.6% of handle. 

However, the market seems to think the Chiefs are most likely to be challenged by the NFC, which is where many of the most popular early betting targets are. The Lions and 49ers are two of the top teams in the table, and they’re also extremely popular among bettors. 

San Franciso has similar numbers to Baltimore, accounting for 5.4% of tickets and 6.9% of all handle. Those numbers may be modest because the return isn’t very enticing at +650. 

The Lions remain a popular NFL betting target among both public bettors and some sharp analysts. They’re the only team aside from Kansas City that accounts for more than 10% of the ticket count, and about one-eighth of all Super Bowl money is backing the Lions. (My colleague Nick Hennion goes into greater detail on the Lions in this article explaining his NFL predictions for the Super Bowl.)

NFL Odds & Rookie QB Theory: 2024 Edition

I spend a lot of time every year evaluating and discussing the year-to-year implications of what I call Rookie Quarterback Theory. 

If you’re new here, it goes something like this: Since the NFL restructured the rookie scale in 2011, teams with effective quarterbacks on rookie quarterbacks have consistently been among the most effective clubs in the league. 

Think about it. If you’re getting 85% of the production of an All-Pro quarterback, but at only 20% of the cost … I mean, how could you not be successful? There’s so much extra money for those teams to spend on building out the roster’s middle class of playmakers. 

When evaluating NFL futures, it pays to consider which teams fit the bill of a potentially high-achieving team with an effective, underpaid quarterback. In 2024, that list includes:

• San Francisco (+650)
• Houston Texans (+1400)
• Philadelphia Eagles, kind of (+1400)
• Green Bay Packers, kind of (+1600)
• Chicago Bears (+3000)
• Indianapolis Colts (+6600)
• Las Vegas Raiders (+8000)
• Minnesota Vikings (+8000)

Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts both have a cap hit of around $13 million, making them tweeners. 

A 5% cap hit is still a great deal for a playoff-caliber quarterback, making them guys that fulfill the spirit of this rule – even if they are exiting their rookie contract era. 

Super Bowl Futures Odds: Longshots to Consider

A successful long shot bet isn’t necessarily about correctly predicting the Super Bowl. Instead, it’s often about getting great closing line value against the late-season NFL odds market with a potential playoff team that starts the season with low expectations.

Imagine how good you’d have felt during the 2023 divisional round if you were holding a Houston +15000 ticket. That’s a real price that was available at the BetMGM online sportsbook last summer! Bettors in that situation had a strong soft hedge position for the Texans-Ravens game back on Jan. 20.

So for long shots, imagine a scenario where a team gets a lucky break or two. What if 2023 Heisman winner Jaden Daniels is an instant star for the Washington Commanders? Couldn’t Dan Quinn and an electric rookie quarterback win a division with declining star power? 

BetMGM’s Commanders odds for the Super Bowl: +15000.

The Buccaneers had a solid offseason and retained several key roster pieces, all while playing in the worst division in football. Could they build on a successful first season with Baker Mayfield, whose cap hit for 2024 is just $6.9 million?

BetMGM’s Buccaneers odds for the Super Bowl: +8000.

Russell Wilson and the Broncos had a dismal 2023, but Sean Payton has now had a full offseason and draft to get under the hood and start overhauling the roster. Wilson is now in Pittsburgh, and Payton thinks Bo Nix could be the next Drew Brees. What if he is?

BetMGM’s Broncos odds for the Super Bowl:: +12500.

You get the idea.

NFL Conference Odds Futures

Here’s one last thing to think about before you bet. The Super Bowl odds market is the big draw here, but I do sometimes like to zoom out a bit and look at teams that are popular in the conference futures markets.

Teams that are popular in their conference futures market, but not necessarily in the Super Bowl odds market, are interesting clubs to consider for action.

In the AFC, Kansas City accounts for 18.1% of tickets and about one-third of all money bet – no surprise there. But Houston and Pittsburgh each account for about 10% of all tickets in the market. 

Since the Steelers opened the Super Bowl market at +8000 and account for only 4.3% of bets, that’s a pretty surprising development in the conference futures.

Also of note in the AFC: the Jets account for 12.8% of the market handle, which is notably higher than any other team but the Chiefs.

The NFC is dominated by the North Division. The Lions, Packers, and Bears account for a combined 50% of all tickets and 53.7% of all handles, meaning the market is heavily tilted toward one division of teams that all have to play each other. 

The 49ers lead the market at +275, but they’re only the fifth-most popular ticket in the market at BetMGM.