NFL Predictions: Super Bowl 59 Picks, Best Bets

Following the conclusion of the 2023-24 NFL season, I’m set to provide NFL predictions for Super Bowl 59 odds based on NFL Betting Lines.

The San Francisco 49ers opened as favorites to win Super Bowl 59, but the Kansas City Chiefs (+600) have recently overtaken San Francisco (+650). 

Rounding out the top-five teams in the futures market are the Baltimore Ravens (+1000) and Detroit Lions (+1200) with the Bills, Bengals, Texans and Eagles all sitting at +1400. 

Check out the full list of Super Bowl Odds 2024.

Super Bowl 59 Predictions, Picks

Detroit Lions to Win Super Bowl 59 (+1200)

There’s an argument to be made the Lions should have made the Super Bowl this year. 

However, a second half crumble ultimately allowed the 49ers to punch their ticket to Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. 

For next year, I’ll turn to the team that’s realistically one unit – a pass defense – away from a complete roster. 

During the 2023-24 regular season, Detroit finished seventh in total DVOA – fifth in offensive DVOA, 13th in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Don’t let those metrics tell the whole story, though. In terms of their defensive output, the Lions led the league in rush defense DVOA but ranked 16th in pass defense. 

Given their offense will play 14 of 17 games indoors next season, they will likely replicate that success. 

The Lions also aren’t a one-dimensional offensive unit, as they ranked top-seven in both pass offense DVOA and rush offense DVOA. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson also returns, which leaves their main coaching staff intact. 

The last bit of good news? Detroit has cap space with which to work. 

According to spotrac.com, Detroit has the eighth-most cap space for the 2024 offseason ($48.1 million). 

That should give them the chance to secure their secondary while potentially adding some valuable skill players to an explosive offense. 

Add in 11 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners have opened the season with futures odds shorter than 12/1 – all but one have posted at 20/1 or shorter – and I’ll bet the Lions at 10/1 or better. 

Philadelphia Eagles to Win Super Bowl 59 (+1600)

I’m already backing the Eagles in my NFC East Division Winner Predictions and think they’re similarly a good bet to win Super Bowl LIX. 

Although there’s an argument to be made that regression is on the horizon — Philly finished 9-8 in expected record last season — there’s simultaneously an argument it’s because of injuries. 

In 2023, the Eagles lost 57 adjusted games to injury on the defensive end. Only three other teams — New England, Carolina and Arizona — suffered a worse blow defensively. 

That should help explain the fact Philadelphia produced the following defensive metrics:

• Defensive EPA/play: 29th
• Passing EPA/play: 28th
• Rushing EPA/play: 29th

Only a year ago, the Eagles ranked fourth, first and 23rd in those categories, respectively. 

They’ve made good offseason moves to address last year’s issues. Safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson returns from Detroit, and defensive end Bryce Huff arrives from New York. 

Most notably, the Eagles added Saquon Barkley to an offense that sits third in EPA per play since last year, including first in rushing EPA per play. 

Finally, even though Jason Kelce retired, this remains an Eagles offensive line that has rated out a top-five unit in two straight seasons. 

Assuming the defense experiences a healthier season, back the Eagles to reach their second Super Bowl in three years and take the title in 2025.