NFL Win Totals: Over Under Wins 2025

NFL season win totals for the 2025-26 season are live at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

For those new to the concept, season win totals allow bettors to place a wager on how many wins a team will accumulate over the course of the regular season. 

Using a predetermined number, bettors decide whether that team will amass a higher or lower number and bet accordingly. 

Check out the full list of win total breakdowns below. NFL odds reflect the time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Over Under Wins 2025

NFL Win Total Predictions 2025

Lions Win Total Prediction: Under 10.5 Wins (-130)

Based on the Lions’ difficult schedule along with a high level of personnel turnover on both sides of the ball, I predict the Lions finish Under 10.5 Wins (-130). 

After a second straight year winning the NFC North, Detroit faces a brutal schedule in 2025. 

Not only do they face six divisional games against three teams with win totals set at 8.5 or higher, but their remaining schedule looks horrifying. 

Even more terrifying for Lions fans is the schedule away from home. 

Excluding the three divisional games, the Lions face the following opponents on the road: Cincinnati, Kansas City, Washington, Philadelphia, Baltimore and the Rams. 

All of those teams own win totals set at 9.5 or higher. 

That should lead to some instant regression for a team that finished 8-0 SU on the road last year. 

Plus, Detroit plays markedly better from a SU standpoint when operating indoors. Under Campbell, Detroit posted a 28-19 SU record indoors compared to 11-9-1 outside. 

It’s also a chance to fade a Lions team that ran markedly above expectations in 2024. 

Detroit finished the season 4-0 in games decided by a field goal or less and 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Accordingly, they finished 1.5 wins over expected. 

The Lions also finished 6-0 in the division. However, three of those wins came by three or fewer points. 

A reasonable counterpoint might be that the defense suffered so many injuries it led to increased volatility. Defensively, Detroit lost the most adjusted games to injury. 

But the counterpoint to that argument is that the Detroit offense remained SO HEALTHY, it adjusted for those absences. 

Only Baltimore sustained fewer adjusted games lost to injury on offense than Detroit, which now must deploy a new offensive coordinator. 

If there’s injury regression in both directions, I’m still skeptical how the Lions defense copes with a strong schedule of opposing offenses. 

Next season, the Lions face 11 games against teams 15th or better in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Pair that with going from 15 games indoors in 2024 to only nine in 2025, and I’ll take the Lions Under 10.5 Wins (-120).

Bills Win Total Prediction: Over 11.5 Wins (-160)

Based on Buffalo’s schedule composition and the likely continuance of their offensive success, I predict the Bills finish Over 11.5 Wins (-160) in 2025. 

While it’s a lot of juice to lay on a bet that won’t settle for a few months, all signs point to Buffalo clearing their win total for the fourth straight year. 

It’s no secret the Bills own one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. With Josh Allen as the starting quarterback, Buffalo owns a 42-21 record at home. 

In road and neutral site contests, the Bills recorded a 34-22 record with Allen. 

Just over the last three seasons: 21-2 at home, 16-11 everywhere else. 

That comes into play in 2025, but it’s not just because the Bills receive a bonus home game. Largely, it’s because they face more difficult opposition at home. 

Only six games next year come against teams that reached the postseason the prior year. Four of those six – Baltimore, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia – are in Buffalo. 

The remaining two? At Pittsburgh and Houston. If you expect improvement from the Bengals, that game also comes at home for Buffalo. 

From a metrics standpoint, Buffalo’s offense should remain a driver of success into 2025. 

The Bills finished third or better in offensive DVOA each of the last three seasons. In the last five seasons, they’ve never fallen outside the top 10, per ftnfantasy.com. 

While last year’s success came against an easy schedule – second in DVOA, 26th in opponent strength – this year’s schedule lacks intimidation. 

Of 17 games, only four come against teams which ranked 10th or better in defensive DVOA last year. 

If the defense takes a step forward – they face only four games against top-10 offenses – 12 wins feels easily achievable. 

Chiefs Win Total Prediction: Under 11.5 Wins (-120)

Based on Kansas City’s overwhelming regression metrics and the improvements around the AFC West, I predict the Chiefs finish Under 11.5 Wins (-120). 

Some may call it a “championship” mentality, but I’ll call the Chiefs’ 2024 performance what it actually is: lucky. 

Everyone knows the story by now. The Chiefs won 15 games in 2024, with five coming by three points or fewer and 10 by seven points or fewer. 

With Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback, Kansas City finished 5-0 in the division with a four-point average margin of victory. 

That’s simply unsustainable given the improvements made by the three chasers in the AFC West. 

Plus, history tells us that the Chiefs are more likely to regress than not based on the performance of similar teams. 

Since 2021, five teams notched 10 or more wins while overperforming their expected record by 1.5 wins AND finishing 80% or better in field-goal games (min. five). 

Those five teams – 2021 Packers, 2021 Titans, 2022 Chargers, 2022 Vikings and 2023 Browns – all saw at least a five-win dropoff the following season. 

I should also mention that none of those teams returned to the postseason the following year. 

Even if you set that aside, two other factors render the Chiefs worth a fade in 2025. 

First is that fatigue must exist amongst this group from playing the maximum amount of games in three straight years. 

I don’t claim to be a doctor, but that could impact a team that ranked 14th in adjusted games lost in 2024. For reference, the Chiefs ranked sixth in 2023. 

Additionally, the schedule does no favors for the Chiefs. 

While the road schedule is fairly easy – only three games vs. teams that won 10+ games last year – they face seven such games at home. 

As a result, I like taking the under on Kansas City’s win total. 

Ravens Win Total Prediction: Under 11.5 Wins (-102)

Based on the potential injury regression for the Ravens and the presumed competitiveness of the Bengals and Steelers I predict the Ravens finish Under 11.5 Wins (-102). 

Not many regression indicators exist on Baltimore, which ran slightly unlucky in 2024. Baltimore garnered 12 wins off 13 expected last season, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Driving the Ravens’ success last season: A historically good offense. At 35.1%, the Ravens rated out as the best team by offensive DVOA at least since 2018. 

Even more impressive about that output is Baltimore played the fifth-hardest set of opposing defenses. 

What leaves me concerned about this team as a futures bet is they sustained very few injuries last season, particularly on offense. 

Baltimore lost 16.3 adjusted games to injury last season, by far the fewest in the league. On offense, they lost only 7.7 games. That rendered Baltimore the only team in single digits. 

For context, the gap between Baltimore and the second-least injured team is as big as the gap between second and seventh. 

That represents a stark improvement from 2023, when the Ravens lost 71.3 adjusted games to injury, the 19th-fewest in the league. 

That leaves regression as the only option for a team that achieved that feat and only managed to clear this win total on the hook last season. 

If Baltimore’s offense regresses, it leaves the door open for both units to regress. 

Last season, the Ravens ranked sixth in defensive DVOA against the eighth-easiest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Next season, Baltimore is slated to play a slightly more difficult schedule of offenses (12th-easiest), though that rating likely increases if the Browns’ offense improves. 

All of that said, this isn’t an under I’m rushing to bet. 

Retaining Ronnie Stanley and adding DeAndre Hopkins qualify as big moves for the offense. Defensively, Baltimore likely got better by losing corner Brandon Stephens. 

Additionally, the divisional opposition leaves much to be desired, especially if Pittsburgh fails to add a veteran quarterback. 

As a result, it’s the under or nothing on Baltimore, but a 12-win season wouldn’t surprise me. 

Eagles Win Total Prediction: Under 11.5 Wins (-130)

Based on the roster changes on Philadelphia’s defense and their increased schedule difficulty, I predict the Eagles finish Under 11.5 Wins (-130). 

Philadelphia built its 2024 success on the heels of massive defensive improvement. Under new coordinator Vic Fangio, the Eagles jumped from 29th to first in defensive DVOA. 

However, I always approach backing teams with an average offense and top-tier defense with skepticism, as defense is more regressive year over year. 

For Philadelphia, it’s especially true given the Eagles lost Milton Williams, Josh Sweat, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and Oren Burks in free agency. 

Regression should also be expected from the Philadelphia defense against a harder set of opposing offenses in 2025. 

Last season, Philadelphia led the league in defensive DVOA against the 16th-hardest set of opposing offenses. 

Based on their 2025 opponent’s offensive DVOA ratings, Philadelphia is slated to face the sixth-hardest set of opposing offenses. 

Additionally, the Eagles go from facing the fourth-easiest schedule in 2024 to the fifth-hardest in 2025, based on opponent win totals. 

Offensively, I’m concerned about a team that lost Kellen Moore and underachieved against an easy schedule. 

Last year, the Eagles finished 13th in offensive DVOA against the easiest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

While it’s difficult to predict the quality of next year’s offensive schedule, the Eagles face seven of last year’s 12 best defenses by DVOA. 

Plus, Philadelphia enters 2025 as a negative regression candidate based on their 2024 results. 

Nick Sirianni’s squad finished 14-3 with an 11.3-5.7 expected record. Driving that overperformance: a 7-2 record in games decided by seven or fewer points. 

It also shouldn’t go unnoticed that Philadelphia went from the 10th-most injured team in 2023 to the second-least injured team in 2024. 

Pair all those trends with a more difficult schedule, and I like the Eagles to notch 11 or fewer wins in 2025.

Vikings Win Total Prediction: Under 8.5 Wins (+120)

Based on a more difficult schedule of opposing offenses and their incredible lucky run in 2024, I predict the Vikings finish Under 8.5 Wins (+120). 

Minnesota, much like its previous postseason berth, ran incredibly lucky to reach that point. 

The Vikings won 14 games in 2024, but it came against 11.5 expected wins. Driving that record: a 4-1 record in field-goal games and an 8-1 record in touchdown contests. 

Of their five division victories, three came by three or fewer points. 

History suggests that fact alone renders the Vikings a bet-against side in 2025. 

Since the schedule expanded to 17 games in 2021, six teams won 10 or more games while overperforming their expected wins by at least 1.5 games. 

Those six teams saw an average dropoff of 5.33 wins. All six finished under 8.5 wins for the season, with five of six earning seven or fewer victories. 

Even if you ignore that trend, Minnesota’s 2025 schedule likely sees the defense take a step back. 

The Vikings finished second in defensive DVOA last season against the 13th-hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Next season, the Vikings face the league’s third-hardest schedule of opposing offenses, based on each team’s 2024 offensive DVOA rating. 

Even more concerning: The Vikings lost the fourth-fewest adjusted games to injury on defense last season. An increase in that department could exacerbate their schedule difficulty. 

While it’s unknown how McCarthy performs in his “rookie” season, he takes over a Vikings offense that ranked 15th in offensive DVOA last season. 

Irrespective of unit, the Vikings play a brutal schedule in 2025. 

Only four teams face a more difficult schedule: the Eagles, Lions, Bears, and Giants. 

Additionally, the Vikings face 17 opponents with 157.7 expected wins in 2024. Only the Lions and Bears feature higher totals. 

For those reasons, I like taking the plus money and backing the Vikings to finish under 8.5 wins. 

Over Under Wins NFL 2025 Predictions

• Arizona Cardinals Win Total Prediction
• Atlanta Falcons Win Total Prediction
• Baltimore Ravens Win Total Prediction
• Buffalo Bills Win Total Prediction
• Carolina Panthers Win Total Prediction
• Chicago Bears Win Total Prediction
• Cincinnati Bengals Win Total Prediction
• Cleveland Browns Win Total Prediction
• Dallas Cowboys Win Total Prediction
• Denver Broncos Win Total Prediction
• Detroit Lions Win Total Prediction
• Green Bay Packers Win Total Prediction
• Houston Texans Win Total Prediction
• Indianapolis Colts Win Total Prediction
• Jacksonville Jaguars Win Total Prediction
• Kansas City Chiefs Win Total Prediction
• Las Vegas Raiders Win Total Prediction
• Los Angeles Chargers Win Total Prediction
• Los Angeles Rams Win Total Prediction
• Miami Dolphins Win Total Prediction
• Minnesota Vikings Win Total Prediction
• New England Patriots Win Total Prediction
• New Orleans Saints Win Total Prediction
• New York Giants Win Total Prediction
• New York Jets Win Total Prediction
• Philadelphia Eagles Win Total Prediction
• Pittsburgh Steelers Win Total Prediction
• San Francisco 49ers Win Total Prediction
• Seattle Seahawks Win Total Prediction
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win Total Prediction
• Tennessee Titans Win Total Prediction
• Washington Commanders Win Total Prediction