NFL Predictions 2024: Win Totals, Make/Miss Playoffs

NFL season win totals for the 2024-25 season are live at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

For those new to the concept, season win totals allow bettors to place a wager on how many wins a team will accumulate over the course of the regular season. 

Using a predetermined number, bettors decide whether that team will amass a higher or lower number and bet accordingly. 

Additionally, futures prices are now live at BetMGM for teams to either make or miss the playoffs. 

Check out the full list of win totals below along with the make/miss playoff prices. NFL betting lines reflect the time of writing and are subject to movement. 

2024-25 NFL Season Win Totals

NFL Win Total Predictions

Denver Broncos Under 5.5 Wins (+120)

The Broncos defense may prop up their problems, but I don’t see how their offense does enough to create wins. 

They’ve cut Russell Wilson and traded Jerry Jeudy, arguably their two best offensive weapons. 

In theory, Denver could run the ball behind Javonte Williams and an offensive line that ranked fourth in PFF’s run-blocking grades. 

However, they also lost center Lloyd Cushenberry III this offseason. Last year, Cushenberry ranked third on the Broncos in PFF’s run-blocking grade. 

Denver also plays only eight games this year at home and faces a generally brutal schedule. 

Of their 17 games, four come against the AFC North, two come against the Chiefs and three more come against potential playoff teams – Seattle, the Jets and Atlanta. 

Add in the Broncos swept the Chargers last season in games where Easton Stick featured for a majority of snaps, and I expect some regression on that front. 

Denver also finished 3-3 in the division last year and 4-4 against playoff teams. With Jarrett Stidham at quarterback – or a rookie QB – I don’t expect those records to replicate. 

Finally, Denver finished last season with a 7-10 expected win-loss record last season, according to pro-football-reference.com, despite finishing 8-9. 

Take the plus money on Denver’s under as a result. 

New England Patriots Under 5.5 Wins (-140)

New England notched only four wins last season, and one could argue they were lucky to get there. 

They beat the Jets on the road against Zach Wilson and picked up a win over a Steelers team starting Mitch Trubisky. 

If those teams have their starting quarterbacks for those games, one could argue the Patriots lose those games. 

Although the Patriots finished 3-8 in games decided by seven points or fewer last season, I question how a rookie quarterback and/or Jacoby Brissett move the ball. 

Last season, New England ranked 31st in EPA per play, 31st in dropback EPA and 24th in rushing EPA per play, according to rbsdm.com. 

Like the Broncos, New England loses a home game this season and faces a brutal road schedule. 

This year, the average win total of their nine road opponents is 9.05, and play six of nine against teams with a win total of 9.5 or higher. 

For their entire schedule, they play a majority of games against teams with a win total of 9.5 or higher and only three games against teams with a win total south of 7.5. 

As a result, I can’t foresee a scenario where the Patriots notch two bonus wins in their belt this season. Lay the price on the under.

New York Jets Over 9.5 Wins (+120)

There’s one big if with this team – can they keep all their pieces healthy? 

If the answer to that question is yes, the Jets have a much higher ceiling this season than their current win total. 

I love what the Jets have done in free agency. 

They’ve sured up their offensive line – a unit that was 30th and 27th in PFF’s pass-blocking and run-blocking grades – via Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and John Simpson. 

Mike Williams also comes up to add an aerial threat alongside Garrett Wilson. 

Finally, the sneaky good addition they made is adding Tyrod Taylor to back up Aaron Rodgers. If Rodgers goes down hurt again, I trust Taylor a lot more than Zach Wilson. 

Additionally, the Jets possess one of the league’s best defenses. Since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, New York ranks third in defensive EPA per play, per rbsdm.com. 

They also play in what should prove a comparably easier division compared to last season. Buffalo and Miami both lost key personnel while the Patriots simply aren’t good. 

As a result, the Jets seem primed for a breakout campaign – assuming their offense can prove average. 

Since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, the Jets are 32nd in offensive EPA per play. 

Rodgers’ return should help that ranking immensely. Even if they sit around 15th or 16th in the league, their outstanding defense is enough to lead them to wins. 

Take the plus money on New York’s over as a result.

NFL Make/Miss Playoff Predictions

Rams to MISS Playoffs (-130)

Aaron Donald is gone from a defense that wasn’t very good last year. That’s a big concern for a team that largely beat up on bad teams last year. 

The Rams finished the 2023 regular season 22nd in defensive DVOA and 20th in defensive EPA per play. 

Plus, Los Angeles’ defense featured 11 players that played at least 50% of all snaps. According to PFF’s defensive grades, only three finished with a rating of 75 or higher. 

Donald led the Rams in that metric with a rating of 90.8. Without him, expect opposing offensive lines to experience more success against Rams pass rushers. 

Plus, this was a 10-7 team last season that played more like a 9-8 team, according to PFF’s pythagorean win totals. 

Of those 10 wins, only two came against fellow playoff teams. They also won all four games against the Cardinals and Seahawks, a trend I expect will change next season. 

Plus, their two wins against 2023 playoff teams came against the Browns with a backup quarterback and the 49ers in Week 18 with nothing for which to play. 

Also worth noting – Los Angeles finished last season as the healthiest team a year after losing the second-most adjusted games to injury. 

Further, the Rams play seven games this season against teams that made the playoffs last year and nine games against teams with a win total of eight or higher. 

As a result, expect Los Angeles to miss the upcoming postseason, barring some scheduling luck.

Dolphins to MISS Playoffs (+145)

Given my love for the Jets, this is really a choice between the Dolphins and Bills, as I don’t think there’s room for all three teams in a loaded AFC. 

I settled on the Dolphins because, unlike last year, they face an absolutely loaded schedule, particularly away from home. 

As it stands, Miami is set to face 11 games next year against teams with win totals of eight or higher and six games against teams projected for nine wins or more. 

Of those 11 games, seven come on the road, including four of six against the teams with win totals of nine or higher. 

Last year, the Dolphins struggled immensely against strong competition. 

Sample six games against fellow playoff teams and bettors will find Miami won only once. 

Those were also the only six games they played against teams that finished the regular season with at least eight wins. 

Plus, Miami’s dealing with loads of roster turnover. 

Their offense should remain outstanding behind Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, and Tyreek Hill, but their defense could suffer next season. 

Christian Wilkins, Andrew van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, Raekwon Davis and DeShon Elliott all exited the team. 

Although they made some nice additions – Shaq Barrett and Kendall Fuller come to mind – I’m willing to fade them in a loaded AFC.