Jaguars Over/Under Wins, 2024 NFL Win Totals

For the 2024 NFL season, the Jaguars’ win total sits at 8.5 at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Jacksonville started their 2023 campaign strong and entered their bye week at 6-2. However, they dropped six of their final nine to finish 9-8, good for second in the AFC South. 

After missing the postseason, Jacksonville’s offseason focused on improving the offense, particularly at wide receiver and on the offensive line. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Jacksonville’s 2024 win total. 

Jaguars Win Total Odds

The Jaguars’ season win total is set at 8.5 games. 

Based on current pricing, the Jaguars are predicted to finish with nine or more wins. Jacksonville is -115 to finish over 8.5 wins, an implied probability of 53.5%. 

Conversely, the Jaguars are -105 to finish with eight or fewer wins, an implied probability of 51.2%. 

Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all AFC South teams:

• Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins
• Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Wins
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 8.5 Wins
• Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Wins

Jaguars 2024 Schedule

Jaguars 2024 Win Total Prediction

LEAN Jaguars Under 8.5 Wins (-105)

As evidenced by the current odds, predicting the Jaguars’ season is somewhat difficult. 

While most of their offseason focus came on improving the offense, it’s my opinion their defensive record is what determines this team’s season. 

Jacksonville lost corner Darious Williams to the Rams. 

Based on PFF grades, Williams finished with the second-best defensive grade last year, amongst players that played at least 50% of snaps. 

That departure is offset by the arrival of Arik Armstead on the defensive line. Still, beyond Armstead and Josh Allen, there aren’t many players on this defense I trust. 

A lack of star power on defense saw Jacksonville run hot and cold last season. 

In their first eight games, Jacksonville ranked fourth in defensive EPA per play and allowed only 19.5 points per game. 

From Week 10 onward, they dropped to 24th in defensive EPA per play and allowed 23.9 points per game. 

In that nine-game sample, Jacksonville produced only one performance where they ranked 19th or better for the week in defensive EPA per play (Week 16 vs. Carolina). 

While additions at offensive line should render Jacksonville a dual-threat offense – they ranked 30th in rush EPA per play last year – I still have questions about this defense. 

As a result, it’s a lean to the under on a team whose ceiling, in my opinion, is nine wins.

Most Wins in Jaguars History

The Jaguars’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. In 1999, the Jaguars went 14-2 before losing in the AFC Championship Game.

They’re still among the NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Jaguars History

The Jaguars’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. In 2020, Jacksonville posted a 1-15 record. In addition, they had a two-win season in 2012, going 2-14.