Cardinals Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Cardinals win total sits at 4.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Arizona began the 2025 season with two wins over the Saints and Panthers. It all went downhill from there with the Cardinals winning once in their final 15 games. 

The team responded by firing Jonathan Gannon and installing Mike LaFleur as head coach. Arizona also cut Kyler Murray with sights on Jacoby Brissett as the starter for 2026. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Arizona’s 2026 win total and my Cardinals win total prediction. 

Cardinals Win Total Odds

The Cardinals’ season win total is set at 4.5 games. 

Oddsmakers rate the Cardinals as more likely to win four or fewer games. Currently, over 4.5 wins is priced at +130 while under 4.5 wins is priced at -155. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all NFC West teams:

• Los Angeles Rams: 11.5 Wins
• San Francisco 49ers: 10.5 Wins
• Seattle Seahawks: 10.5 Wins
• Arizona Cardinals: 4.5 Wins

Cardinals Win Total Prediction 2026

Based on overwhelming injury issues in 2025 and Arizona’s total lack of luck last season, I predict the Cardinals finish Over 4.5 Wins (-105). 

There’s no way of knowing if the Cardinals are going to try to win games next season. I’ll add this: the schedule is set up so that if Arizona wants to tank, it’s easily achievable. 

By 2026 season win totals, Arizona faces the hardest schedule in the NFL. 

Not only do they play in the league’s hardest division, but their eight non-unique games come against the NFC East and AFC West. 

Beyond the schedule, though, a number of arguments support positive regression from Arizona. 

My overarching belief is that – essentially – Kyler Murray to Jacoby Brissett is not a four-win dropoff. Last year, oddsmakers listed Arizona’s win total at 8.5. 

Brissett presented serviceable metrics late in the season. Last year, 20 quarterbacks played at least 225 snaps with a win percentage between 30% and 70%. Here are Brissett’s ranks:

• Adjusted EPA per play: 14th. Better than Caleb Williams and Sam Darnold. 
• Success rate: 13th. Better than Jared Goff, Bo Nix and Williams. 
• Completion Percentage over Expected: 5th. Inferior to only Drake Maye, Jalen Hurts, Darnold and Jordan Love. 

More impressive about those stats is that Brissett accomplished the feat on a Cardinals offense that lost the most adjusted games to injury in the NFL. 

The unit also faced the sixth-hardest set of opposing defenses. 

Defensively, Arizona looked like an absolute disaster. But two factors have to be acknowledged:

1. Arizona faced the hardest set of opposing offenses in the NFL (+6.5% offensive DVOA). The gap between Arizona and second-place Minnesota is as big as the gap between Minnesota and 18th-placed Atlanta! 
2. Arizona’s defense lost 78.1 adjusted games to injury. Only the Lions lost more. For added context, Arizona lost more games on defense last year than Houston over the last two. 

If there’s one thesis I’ll take into the NFL season, it’s that Arizona’s defense isn’t as bad as one might think.

Plus, the Cardinals finished 2.4 wins under expected last year. Driving that record? A 0-5 record in field-goal games and a 2-8 record in one-possession games. 

After a 2-0 start, Arizona lost five straight by a combined 13 points! More incredible – the team had a fourth quarter advantage in three of those games. 

One would expect a fresh set of eyes at head coach could lead to some positive regression. Plus, the Cardinals finished 0-6 in divisional games last season. 

Historically, teams that fail to win a single division game one year improve in that arena the subsequent season. In 2025, the Raiders and Giants fit that designation. 

Vegas needed a Week 18 win over Chris Oladokun to earn a division win. The Giants improved by two wins within the division. 

At such a small number, an unlikely division win could prove very meaningful. Accordingly, it’s over 4.5 wins on the Cardinals or a complete stayaway due to their regression indicators.

Most Wins in Cardinals History

The Cardinals’ franchise record for most wins in a single regular season is 13, which happened in 2015.

Fewest Wins in Cardinals History

The Cardinals’ fewest wins in franchise history is zero. It has happened twice, in 1943 as the Racine/Chicago Cardinals and in 1944 when they were Card-Pitt.