Vikings Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Vikings win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Minnesota defied expectations in 2024 with a 14-win season before falling in the wild-card round. 

Kevin O’Connell earned NFL Coach of the Year honors thanks to the campaign. Now, he’ll try to replicate the success with J.J. McCarthy taking over as the starting quarterback. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Minnesota’s 2025 win total and my Vikings win total prediction. 

Vikings Win Total Odds

The Vikings’ season win total is set at 8.5 games for the upcoming season. 

Oddsmakers expect the over is the more likely outcome. Currently, Minnesota is -155 to win nine or more games, an implied probability of 60.8%. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with eight or fewer wins is +130, an implied probability of 43.5%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all NFC North teams:

• Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins
• Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Wins
• Chicago Bears: 8.5 Wins
• Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins

Vikings Win Total Prediction 2025

Minnesota Vikings Under 8.5 Wins (+130)

Based on a more difficult schedule of opposing offenses and their incredible lucky run in 2024, I predict the Vikings finish Under 8.5 Wins (+130). 

BET: Vikings Over 8.5 Wins @ -155

BET: Vikings Under 8.5 Wins @ +130  

Minnesota, much like its previous postseason berth, ran incredibly lucky to reach that point. 

The Vikings won 14 games in 2024, but it came against 11.5 expected wins. Driving that record: a 4-1 record in field-goal games and an 8-1 record in touchdown contests. 

Of their five division victories, three came by three or fewer points. 

History suggests that fact alone renders the Vikings a bet-against side in 2025. 

Since the schedule expanded to 17 games in 2021, six teams won 10 or more games while overperforming their expected wins by at least 1.5 games. 

Those six teams saw an average dropoff of 5.33 wins. All six finished under 8.5 wins for the season, with five of six earning seven or fewer victories. 

Even if you ignore that trend, Minnesota’s 2025 schedule likely sees the defense take a step back. 

The Vikings finished second in defensive DVOA last season against the 13th-hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Next season, the Vikings face the league’s third-hardest schedule of opposing offenses, based on each team’s 2024 offensive DVOA rating. 

Even more concerning: The Vikings lost the fourth-fewest adjusted games to injury on defense last season. An increase in that department could exacerbate their schedule difficulty. 

While it’s unknown how McCarthy performs in his “rookie” season, he takes over a Vikings offense that ranked 15th in offensive DVOA last season. 

Irrespective of unit, the Vikings play a brutal schedule in 2025. 

Only four teams face a more difficult schedule: the Eagles, Lions, Bears, and Giants. 

Additionally, the Vikings face 17 opponents with 157.7 expected wins in 2024. Only the Lions and Bears feature higher totals. 

For those reasons, I like taking the plus money and backing the Vikings to finish under 8.5 wins. 

Most Wins in Vikings History

The Vikings franchise record for wins in a single season is 15. They achieved this in 1998 but fell short of a Super Bowl, losing in the NFC Championship.

The Vikings are among 12 NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Vikings History

The Vikings’ season with the fewest wins in history is two, which happened in 1962 when they finished 2-11.

\Minnesota has only lost three or fewer games five times in franchise history.