Vikings Over/Under Wins, 2024 NFL Win Totals

For the 2024 NFL season, the Vikings win total sits at 6.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

After winning 13 games in 2022 and going 9-0 in one-score games, Minnesota experienced some natural regression last year. 

They finished with only seven wins and went 4-8 in games decided by under seven points. 

In 2024, they’ll deploy either Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy at quarterback following Kirk Cousins’ departure. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Minnesota’s 2024 win total. 

Vikings Win Total Odds

The Vikings’ season win total is set at 6.5 games for the upcoming season. 

Oddsmakers expect the over is the more likely outcome. Currently, Minnesota is -150 to win seven or more games, an implied probability of 60%. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with six or fewer wins is +125, an implied probability of 44.4%. 

Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all NFC North teams:

• Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins
• Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Wins
• Chicago Bears: 8.5 Wins
• Minnesota Vikings: 6.5 Wins

Vikings 2024 Schedule

Vikings 2024 Win Total Prediction

LEAN Vikings Under 6.5 Wins (+125)

Minnesota is a difficult team to evaluate as they’ve made nice transactions but play a difficult schedule. 

Aaron Jones arrives from Green Bay to relieve some pressure off Darnold/McCarthy while the receiving duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison remains threatening. 

Defensively, Jonathan Grenard arrives from Houston to play defensive end, Andrew van Ginkel moves from Miami and Dallas Turner enters from the draft. 

For a team that ranked just below average in both offensive and defensive EPA per play last season, that might be enough to get them to seven wins. 

However, Minnesota’s schedule does them absolutely no favors. 

Their three unique games are the Jets, Falcons and Giants. All three of those teams should be improved year-over-year. 

Just by examining the schedule, it’s my estimation that Minnesota will close a favorite in 2-3 games at best. 

Can they steal 4-5 outright wins as an underdog? Don’t count on it. 

Since taking over as head coach, Kevin O’Connell is 4-10 SU as an underdog. Comparatively, he’s 16-4 SU as a favorite. 

With uncertainty at quarterback and a difficult schedule, I’m inclined to bet on the Vikings underachieving in 2024.

Most Wins in Vikings History

The Vikings franchise record for wins in a single season is 15. They achieved this in 1998 but fell short of a Super Bowl, losing in the NFC Championship.

The Vikings are among 12 NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Vikings History

The Vikings’ season with the fewest wins in history is two, which happened in 1962 when they finished 2-11.

\Minnesota has only lost three or fewer games five times in franchise history.