Vikings Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Vikings win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Minnesota began the 2025 season 4-8 and appeared headed for a last-place finish in the NFC North. However, a five-game winning streak to close the season earned a winning season. 

Kevin O’Connell achieved that feat despite horrific quarterback play from J.J. McCarthy. The team responded by signing Kyler Murray to a one-year minimum deal. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Minnesota’s 2026 win total and my Vikings win total prediction. 

Vikings Win Total Odds

The Vikings’ season win total is set at 8.5 games for the upcoming season. 

Oddsmakers expect the under to be the more likely outcome. Currently, Minnesota’s odds to win nine or more games is -105. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with eight or fewer wins is -115. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all NFC North teams:

• Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins
• Green Bay Packers: 10.5 Wins
• Chicago Bears: 9.5 Wins
• Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins

Vikings Win Total Prediction 2026

Based on Minnesota’s flawed secondary and inconsistent defensive record last season, I predict the Vikings finish Under 8.5 Wins (-120). 

I describe my feelings about Minnesota as skeptically optimistic. 

The offense will unquestionably look better next season. Either Murray provides stability that gets Minnesota back to league average, or McCarthy surprises and takes a step forward. 

Dismissing McCarthy after a season coming off injury feels dangerous. While a Drake Maye leap feels distant, one would assume there’s only room to go up. 

Defense is where Minnesota rests its laurels. The issue? Brian Flores’ unit operated as the highest-variance defense in the league last year, per FTN Fantasy. 

Most of that variance comes against opposition passing games. None can be explained by injury, either, as the Vikings lost only 6.7 adjusted games to injury at defensive back. 

In Week 1, Minnesota looked average against Caleb Williams. Their +0.013 dropback EPA ranked 13th in the league. 

Then the Vikings completed a stretch in which the secondary played like world-beaters. In Weeks 2-5, Minnesota recorded a -0.323 dropback EPA per play (best in the NFL). 

However, here are the quarterbacks they faced in that span: Michael Penix, Jake Browning, Aaron Rodgers and Dillon Gabriel. Hardly a murderer’s row. 

After a Week 6 bye, the unit looked like a dumpster fire. From Weeks 7-13, the pass defense regressed to a +0.168 dropback EPA (28th). 

Most of that came over a two-game period (Weeks 7-8). In those two games – at home to Philly and on short rest at the Chargers – the unit allowed a +0.572 dropback EPA, worst in the NFL. 

The team still ranked 18th in that metric from Weeks 10-13 before tearing apart opposing quarterbacks down the stretch. 

In Weeks 14-18, Minnesota owned the best pass defense in the league. The team allowed a -0.327 dropback EPA, again the best benchmark in the league. 

However, it came against banged-up offenses or bad quarterbacks: Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, Jaxson Dart (no O-Line), Jared Goff (also no O-Line) and Clayton Tune. 

Next season, the defense – with almost no changes and potentially without Jonathan Grenard – will have to look more consistent against a difficult schedule. 

By 2025 offensive DVOA records, Minnesota goes from a +2.9% opponent average to a +3.6%. Including divisional games, Minnesota plays 10 games against top-10 pass offenses. 

The schedule features a few winnable games – Miami, New York (A) and Carolina come to mind. However, the remaining 14 feel like either coin-flip outcomes or Minnesota as a dog. 

For those reasons, I’m more inclined to predict eight or fewer wins. That said, it would not surprise me in the slightest if the Vikings win 10 or more next season.

Most Wins in Vikings History

The Vikings franchise record for wins in a single season is 15. They achieved this in 1998 but fell short of a Super Bowl, losing in the NFC Championship.

The Vikings are among 12 NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Vikings History

The Vikings’ season with the fewest wins in history is two, which happened in 1962 when they finished 2-11.

\Minnesota has only lost three or fewer games five times in franchise history.