Titans Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Titans’ win total sits at 6.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Cam Ward endured a rough go in his rookie season. Tennessee stayed under its win total (5.5) and fired head coach Brian Callahan midway through the season. 

Robert Saleh takes over for Callahan with Brian Daboll arriving to coordinate the offense. They’ll try to turn around a team that finished 2-3 in its final five games of 2025. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Tennessee’s 2026 win total and my Titans win total prediction. 

Titans Win Total Odds

The Titans’ season win total is set at 6.5 games.

Oddsmakers view Tennessee’s win total outcome as a coin flip. Currently, over 6.5 wins is priced at -110 while under 6.5 wins is priced at -110. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all AFC South teams:

• Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 9.5 Wins
• Indianapolis Colts: 7.5 Wins
• Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Wins

Titans Win Total Prediction 2026

Based on a presumably easier schedule for Cam Ward, and Tennessee’s bad luck in close games last year, I predict the Titans finish Over 6.5 Wins (-110). 

Full disclosure: I prefer the Titans as a long-shot prediction to win the AFC South. I still like the win total over, but prefer taking a loftier approach to Tennessee’s futures. 

Let’s start with Ward. The season undoubtedly saw him struggle without much of a supporting cast. 

In terms of non-adjusted offensive DVOA, only the Raiders and Browns posted inferior offensive records. 

Here’s the catch: Ward faced the hardest set of opposing defenses in the entire league. Twelve of his 17 games came against top-15 defensive DVOA teams, per FTN Fantasy. 

Even more eye-opening about Tennessee: Ward’s Titans faced the hardest schedule of opposing defenses of ANY offense dating back to the 2018 season. 

In the first four games of Ward’s rookie season, he played three top-five defenses by DVOA. 

Presumably, the 2026 schedule can only soften. He still faces Houston twice and Jacksonville twice (both sixth or better last year), but defense is often more fluid annually than offense. 

Another factor about Tennessee’s 2025 campaign is how much more difficult the schedule played than projected. 

Based on last season’s win totals, the Titans are projected to play the league’s 26th-hardest schedule. They ended up playing the league’s second-hardest schedule as a last-place finisher. 

Some of that is contained within the division. Still, Saleh inherits a team that projects to face the league’s 16th-hardest schedule. 

They’ll do so after completely overhauling the team in free agency. I love the addition of John Franklin-Myers to pair alongside Jeffrey Simmons. 

Acquired edge rusher Jermaine Johnson enjoyed his best season under Saleh with the Jets. They’ve also gone out and signed Cordale Flott and Alontae Taylor to play corner. 

Those pieces are expected to play a significantly softer schedule compared to last season. By 2025 offensive DVOA, the Titans project to face the league’s 22nd-hardest offensive schedule. 

Over a two-year blended average, Tennessee projects to face the league’s 26th-hardest set of offenses. 

If the easy defensive schedule pans out, it should allow for some positive regression from an unlucky team last year. 

Tennessee finished a full win under expectation based on a 2-5 record in one-possession games. 

All of that leads me to believe Saleh can – at minimum – get this team to seven wins in 2026. 

Most Wins in Titans History

The Titans’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 13, which has happened three times: 1999, 2000, and 2008.

Fewest Wins in Titans History

The Titans’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. All three seasons were when they were the Houston Oilers. Since moving to Tennessee, the Titans’ lowest win season was in 2014 with two.