Titans Over/Under Wins, 2024 NFL Win Totals

For the 2024 NFL season, the Titans’ win total sits at 6.5 at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Following a second consecutive season with seven or fewer wins, Tennessee fired head coach Mike Vrabel in the offseason. 

To replace him, they hired Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. 

Tennessee made myriad offensive-minded transactions in the offseason. They lost Derrick Henry but signed both Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Tennessee’s 2024 win total. 

Titans Win Total Odds

The Titans’ season win total is set at 6.5 games.

Oddsmakers expect the Titans to be more likely to finish under their season win total. Currently, Tennessee is -140 to do so, an implied probability of 58.3%. 

Comparatively, the Titans are +115 to notch seven or more wins for an implied probability of 46.5%. 

Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all AFC South teams:

• Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins
• Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Wins
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 8.5 Wins
• Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Wins

Titans 2024 Schedule

Titans 2024 Win Total Prediction

Titans Under 6.5 Wins (-140)

It’s a steep price to lay on Tennessee, but I rate their head coaching move a downgrade. 

Although they finished a full win under expectation last year based on expected record, Tennessee faces a brutal schedule this year. 

Despite finishing in last place, they play the hardest schedule in the division. Their three unique opponents? The Bengals, Commanders, and Chargers. 

In addition to playing six divisional contests against teams with win totals of 8.5 wins or higher, they also play out-of-division contests against the AFC East and NFC North.

Based purely on look-ahead lines, the Titans are expected to close a favorite only once this season (vs. New England in Week 9). 

Had they retained Vrabel, I would have more faith in their ability to capture wins as underdogs. For his career, Vrabel won 25 of 53 games outright as an underdog. 

But the move to Callahan, who ceded play-calling duties in Cincinnati to head coach Zac Taylor, makes little sense for a team with an atrocious defense. 

Last season, Tennessee finished 28th in defensive EPA per play, including 30th against the pass.

There’s an argument they could be worse this year after losing Sean Murphy-Bunting and Kristian Fulton with only one replacement (Chidobe Awuzie). 

While their offense certainly could score points, I’m pessimistic they can score enough to counterbalance a bad defense. 

As a result, take the under on Tennessee’s win total in 2024.

Most Wins in Titans History

The Titans’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 13, which has happened three times: 1999, 2000, and 2008.

Fewest Wins in Titans History

The Titans’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. All three seasons were when they were the Houston Oilers. Since moving to Tennessee, the Titans’ lowest win season was in 2014 with two.