Colts Over/Under Wins, 2024 NFL Win Totals

For the 2024 NFL season, the Colts’ win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Indianapolis saw major improvement under new head coach Shane Steichen in 2023. After winning only four games the year prior, Indianapolis earned nine wins last season. 

That came despite rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson starting only four games. Even in his absence, the Colts still finished with the 10th-best offense in terms of points. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Indianapolis’ 2024 win total. 

Colts Win Total Odds

The Colts’ season win total is set at 8.5 games. 

Based on current pricing, the Colts are predicted to finish with eight or fewer wins. Indianapolis is -115 to finish under 8.5 wins, an implied probability of 53.5%. 

Conversely, the Colts are -105 to finish with nine or more wins, an implied probability of 51.2%. 

Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all AFC South teams:

• Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins
• Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Wins
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 8.5 Wins
• Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Wins

Colts 2024 Schedule

Colts 2024 Win Total Prediction

Colts Under 8.5 Wins (-115) 

Here’s the good news for Colts backers: they play a really easy schedule in 2024. 

Based on opponent win totals, Indy faces the seventh-easiest schedule in the league along with the easiest schedule in the division. 

Plus, the Colts retained loads of key personnel, including Michael Pittman Jr., Grover Stewart and Kenny Moore II. 

In theory, that should lead to some improvement for a team that ranked 18th and 16th in offensive and defensive EPA per play last year, respectively. 

But there’s some bad news for Colts backers: schedule makers counterbalanced the relative ease by forcing Indianapolis into a number of bad spots. 

The Colts face a -17 net rest edge differential, the third-largest mark in the NFL, according to sharpfootballanalysis.com. 

Additionally, their performances from 2023 suggest the Colts are primed for negative regression. 

The Colts finished 3-1 in games decided by three or fewer points and 6-3 in games decided by seven or fewer points. 

Accordingly, they overperformed their expected record by a full win and played more like an 8-9 team, per pro-football-reference.com. 

Most of that record came in games where the Colts closed as favorites. 

Indy finished 6-0 SU last season as a favorite at market close with half of those wins coming by four or fewer points. 

As a result, I’m inclined to believe Indianapolis finishes under their season win total in 2024.

Most Wins in Colts History

The Colts’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. Indianapolis has accomplished that feat twice, in 2005 and 2009.

Fewest Wins in Colts History

The Colts’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. In 1991, the Colts posted a 1-15 record.