Colts Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Colts’ win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Indianapolis appeared on its way to a deep playoff run in 2025. Buoyed by a resurgent Daniel Jones, Indianapolis started the season 8-2. 

Close losses at Kansas City and Houston began a downward spiral. Jones tore his Achilles in Week 14, and the Colts finished the season 8-9 with seven straight losses. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Indianapolis’ 2026 win total and my Colts win total prediction. 

Colts Win Total Odds

The Colts’ season win total is set at 8.5 games. 

Oddsmakers rate the Colts more likely to finish under this benchmark. Currently, Indianapolis under 8.5 wins is priced at -130. 

Comparatively, the Colts are +110 to win at least nine games in 2026. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all AFC South teams:

• Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 9.5 Wins
• Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Wins
• Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Wins

Colts Win Total Prediction 2026

Based on Indianapolis’ misfortune down the stretch and its strong rushing attack, I predict the Colts finish Over 8.5 Wins (+110) in 2026. 

Looming over all of Indy’s 2026 season is this question: How will Jones look after tearing his Achilles? 

The Colts started the season as one of the league’s dominant offenses. The team cleared 11 expected points added eight times – all in the first 10 weeks of the season. 

If not for ill-timed turnovers against Pittsburgh and Los Angeles (N), the Colts easily could have started 10-0. 

One issue with the early part of the season? Indianapolis largely faced bad defenses. Only twice in the first 12 games did they play a top-six DVOA defense. 

That left Riley Leonard and Philip Rivers to play four of the final five against top-six units. Still, the Colts looked competitive in those games, losing four of the final seven by one possession. 

Coming into 2026, I remain bullish on Jonathan Taylor and the offensive line. Last year, Indy ranked fourth in PFF’s run-blocking grades. Taylor finished third league-wide in rushing yards. 

As a team, Indy ranked fifth in rush offense DVOA. In the last two seasons when Jonathan Taylor played 17 games – last year and 2021 – the team ranked fifth and first. 

IF Taylor can stay healthy, it takes significant pressure off Jones. It also alleviates concerns about a team trending toward losing Josh Downs from the slot to outside receiver. 

I wonder, too, if teams sell out against the run to try and force something over the top. If Jones isn’t himself, it creates a recipe for disaster. 

More concerning is the defense. Linebacker and safety are issues for this team which faced a really easy schedule in 2025. Last year, opponents averaged a -1% DVOA rating. 

Of course, it’s projected to get a little easier. Next season, Indy faces a set of offenses that averaged a -4.5% offensive DVOA rating and -4.2% rating over a two-year average. 

Is it actually going to play that easy? Probably not. I expect improvement from the Titans and Giants. Playing in Cleveland is significantly worse than playing them at home. 

But if the Colts offense remains as good as early last year, it probably doesn’t matter. 

That may offer some encouragement for a team that finished 2.9 wins under expected last season, per FTN Fantasy, due to a 3-7 record in one-possession games. 

Next season, the Colts project to face the league’s 12th-easiest schedule by opponent win totals. It’s also the easiest schedule within the AFC South. 

Due to those factors, I’m more inclined to predict nine wins or more for the Colts. However, confidence is relatively average given the uncertainty around Jones. 

Most Wins in Colts History

The Colts’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. Indianapolis has accomplished that feat twice, in 2005 and 2009.

Fewest Wins in Colts History

The Colts’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. In 1991, the Colts posted a 1-15 record.