Falcons Over/Under Wins, 2024 NFL Win Totals

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Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs the ball during the second half of an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers, Sunday, Sep. 17, 2023, in Atlanta. The Atlanta Falcons won 25-24.
(AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jul 11, 2024, 7:41 PM
  • The Falcons’ 2024 win total is set at 9.5 wins at BetMGM.
  • The Falcons last cleared this win total in the 2017 season.
  • Why bettors should fade the public expectation of this team.

For the 2024 NFL season, the Falcons win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook

Hopes are high this season in Atlanta, who are the current favorites to win the NFC South. 

During the offseason, the Falcons added Kirk Cousins in free agency and Michael Penix Jr. in the draft. 

Those are the most notable additions for a team that finished 7-10 last season. That marks the sixth straight season the Falcons finished with seven or fewer wins. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Atlanta’s 2024 win total. 

Falcons Win Total Odds

The Falcons’ season win total is set at 9.5 games. 

The odds for Atlanta to win at least 10 games is -140, an implied probability of 58.3%. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with nine or fewer wins is +115, an implied probability of 46.5%. 

Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all NFC South teams:

Falcons 2024 Schedule

Week NumberOpponent
Week 1Pittsburgh Steelers (H)
Week 2Philadelphia Eagles (A)
Week 3Kansas City Chiefs (H)
Week 4New Orleans Saints (H)
Week 5Tampa Bay Buccaneers (H)
Week 6 Carolina Panthers (A)
Week 7Seattle Seahawks (H)
Week 8Tampa Bay Buccaneers (A)
Week 9Dallas Cowboys (H)
Week 10New Orleans Saints (A)
Week 11Denver Broncos (A)
Week 12Bye
Week 13Los Angeles Chargers (H)
Week 14Minnesota Vikings (A)
Week 15Las Vegas Raiders (A)
Week 16New York Giants (H)
Week 17Washington Commanders (A)
Week 18Carolina Panthers (H)

Falcons 2024 Win Total Prediction

Falcons Under 9.5 Wins (+115)

The Falcons may very well win the division, but this win total is far too high. 

The reasoning? They’ve done nothing to address their atrocious defense. 

Since the beginning of last season, the Falcons are 28th in defensive EPA per play and 26th in defensive success rate when their win probability is between 14 and 86%, per rbsdm.com. 

Last season, Atlanta ranked second in PFF’s run defense grades but sat 25th in coverage grade and 27th in pressure rate. 

Plus, this team has made a habit of playing close games. 

Over the last two seasons, the Falcons have seen 21 of 36 games decided by eight points or fewer. They’ve gone 8-13 SU in those contests. 

Within that 21-game sample, bettors will find Atlanta has played 14 games that have been decided by three or fewer points. Atlanta finished 7-7 SU in those contests. 

Most Wins in Falcons History

The Falcons’ franchise record for most regular-season wins is 14; they went 14-2 in 1998 en route to a loss in Super Bowl XXXIII.

They’re one of 12 NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Falcons History

The Falcons’ franchise record for fewest regular-season wins is one; they went 1-12-1 in 1967, the team’s second year of existence.

They won only two games a year later in 1968.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.