Falcons Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Falcons win total sits at 7.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Atlanta surged toward the end of the 2025 season, clearing its win total with a Week 18 win against New Orleans. 

Still, the team fired Raheem Morris and brought in two-time NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski. He’ll inherit a team featuring Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Atlanta’s 2026 win total and my Falcons win total prediction. 

Falcons Win Total Odds

The Falcons’ season win total is set at 7.5 games. 

Oddsmakers have priced the Falcons’ win total as a coin flip. Currently, over 7.5 wins is priced at -105 while under 7.5 wins is priced at -115. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all NFC South teams:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.5 Wins
• Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 Wins
• New Orleans Saints: 7.5 Wins
• Carolina Panthers: 6.5 Wins

Falcons Win Total Prediction 2026

Based on Atlanta’s difficult defensive schedule and lack of talent along the front seven, I predict the Falcons finish Under 7.5 Wins (-110). 

Outside of Bijan Robinson and an above-average offensive line, Atlanta lacks many scary pieces. Compounding that issue are two injury-prone quarterbacks competing to start. 

The case for hope rests with the rushing attack. Atlanta finished ninth or better in rush offense DVOA each of the last two seasons. 

But what could inhibit that effort is a lackluster defense. If Atlanta consistently plays from behind, it increases pressure on either Penix Jr. or Tagovailoa. 

Save for Jessie Bates, the Falcons defense looks vulnerable. Linebacker Kaden Elliss, corner Dee Alford and interior lineman David Onyemata all departed in free agency. 

James Pearce Jr. also likely misses time after encountering an off-the-field issue. Plus, Atlanta looked very vulnerable against the run last year. 

Per FTN Fantasy, the Falcons finished 23rd in rush defense DVOA. Next season, Atlanta projects to face eight games against offenses that ranked 16th or better in rush offense DVOA. 

In general, the schedule does Atlanta no favors. On the whole, Atlanta projects to face the league’s 25th-hardest set of offenses. 

But that ranking gets a favorable projection due to four games against the league’s six worst offenses: Cleveland, New Orleans (x2) and Minnesota. 

I expect both New Orleans and Minnesota take a step forward offensively. If that’s the case, Atlanta’s schedule likely plays harder than the initial projection. 

On a two-year blended average, the Falcons receive more troubling news. 

Average out all the offensive DVOA rankings from ‘24 and ‘25, and bettors will find Atlanta plays the 11th-hardest set of offenses. 

Additionally, the schedule breakdown by home/road opponents further complicates Atlanta’s futures profile. 

At home, Atlanta’s opponents average a 9.4 season win total. Outside the division, Stefanski’s team faces zero games against teams with win totals set at 8.5 or less at home. 

Over the last two years, Atlanta finished 8-9 at home. That record comes despite closing a favorite in 11 of 17 games. 

Generally speaking, the schedule counts itself amongst the hardest in the league. 

Based on opening win totals, only eight teams project to face a more difficult schedule than the Falcons. That could change if the Steelers trot out Mason Rudolph or Will Howard. 

Regressing at home places pressure on a team to win at difficult environments: Green Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Washington. 

I don’t trust either quarterback in those environments. Accordingly, I predict the Falcons will finish under this benchmark for the first time since 2023. 

Most Wins in Falcons History

The Falcons’ franchise record for most regular-season wins is 14; they went 14-2 in 1998 en route to a loss in Super Bowl XXXIII.

They’re one of 12 NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Falcons History

The Falcons’ franchise record for fewest regular-season wins is one; they went 1-12-1 in 1967, the team’s second year of existence.

They won only two games a year later in 1968.