Raiders Over/Under Wins, 2024 NFL Win Totals

For the 2024 NFL season, the Raiders win total sits at 6.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

The 2023 season started poorly for Las Vegas, who started 3-5 with Josh McDaniels. A mid-season coaching change brought good fortune as Antonio Pierce finished 5-3. 

The Raiders retained Pierce for the 2024 season and made some notable free agency additions in Christian Wilkins and Gardner Minshew. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Las Vegas’ 2024 win total. 

Raiders Win Total Odds

The Raiders’ season win total is set at 6.5 games. 

Currently, oddsmakers believe the Raiders are more likely to clear this number. Over 6.5 wins is priced at -125, an implied probability of 55.6%. 

Conversely, the under is priced at +105 for an implied probability of 48.8%. 

Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all AFC West teams:

• Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Chargers: 8.5 Wins
• Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Wins
• Denver Broncos: 5.5 Wins

Raiders 2024 Schedule

Raiders 2024 Win Total Prediction

LEAN Raiders Under 6.5 Wins (+105)

If good vibes were enough to get a team over its win total, the Raiders might be the obvious choice for an over bet. 

However, it’s not lost on me that Pierce entered the team at a very easy part of their schedule. That could lead to a flawed perception of this team. 

Here’s the good news: Las Vegas could have a great defense. Under McDaniels, the Raiders ranked 26th in defensive EPA per play. Under Pierce, they were second. 

However, they played six of Pierce’s eight games at home and faced only one game at home against a top-10 offense (Kansas City). 

In a down year for the AFC West, Las Vegas finished second place at 8-9. Their reward? The ninth-hardest strength of schedule by opposing win totals. 

Even if their defense rises to the level of their 2023 performance, I have little faith in this offense. 

After his exit in Chicago, Luke Getsy arrives to coordinate an offense that will feature either Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew at quarterback. 

Josh Jacobs is no longer in the fold, either, leaving a tandem of Zamir White and Alexander Mattison. 

Beyond Davante Adams at wide receiver, there aren’t many Raiders skill position players I’d define as game-changers. 

Essentially, that means any time the Raiders face a competent defense, it will be an uphill climb. 

This season, the Raiders face nine games against teams who finished 15th in better in defensive EPA per play last season. 

If the Raiders struggle in those contests, I question how they get to seven wins. Accordingly, it’s the under or nothing for me on Las Vegas’ win total.

Most Wins in Raiders History

The Raiders’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 13. In 1976, the Raiders went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Raiders History

The Raiders’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. In 2006, the Raiders struggled, finishing with a 2-14 record.