Raiders Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Raiders’ win total sits at 5.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

A Week 1 win over the AFC champions proved the highlight of Las Vegas’ 2025 season. It all went downhill from there with the Raiders finishing 3-14, good for the worst record in the NFL. 

Ownership elected to move on from Pete Carroll, hiring Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. He inherits a team that has failed to reach its win total in consecutive seasons. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Las Vegas’ 2026 win total and my Raiders win total prediction.  

Raiders Win Total Odds

The Raiders’ season win total is set at 5.5 games. 

Currently, oddsmakers believe the Raiders are more likely to clear this number. Over 5.5 wins for the Raiders is priced at -155. 

Conversely, under 5.5 wins is priced as the underdog at +130. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all AFC West teams:

• Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Chargers: 10.5 Wins
• Denver Broncos: 9.5 Wins
• Las Vegas Raiders: 5.5 Wins

Raiders 2026 Win Total Prediction

Based on an improved offense under Klint Kubiak and a superior offensive line year over year, I predict the Las Vegas Raiders finish Over 5.5 Wins (-125). 

In a matter of days, the Raiders’ outlook changed completely. Baltimore nixed an agreed-upon trade for Maxx Crosby, who reaffirmed his commitment to the Raiders after it fell through. 

The team stockpiled a bunch of free agents, mostly on defense. It should only help a team that finished 14th in defensive DVOA last season, per FTN Fantasy. 

Notably, the Raiders improved radically last year due to a healthier defense. Year over year, the unit went from 18th to 14th in DVOA while suffering 63.5 fewer adjusted games lost. 

Regression in that statistic obviously offers some concern. But if the unit stays healthy, there’s talent at all three levels to get this defense back to a top-10 rating it posted in 2023. 

Plus, the defense gets a favorable schedule next year. By 2025 offensive DVOA ratings, the Raiders project to face the league’s 18th-hardest set of offenses.

By a two-year blended average, it projects to face the 22nd-hardest set of offenses. 

Offense is where the concern lies. Las Vegas finished 31st in DVOA last season with the second-fewest red zone trips. A silver lining: it came against the 12th-hardest set of defenses. 

That ranking represented a two-spot decline for the Raiders. However, Kubiak has shown he can turn around bad offenses in a hurry. 

Seattle jumped from 18th to 10th in DVOA under Kubiak last season. New Orleans saw a slight improvement in 2024 before injuries completely derailed their efforts. 

Vegas, at minimum, should deploy a superior offensive line next season. The team signed Tyler Linderbaum to a lucrative contract and still has a decent/injury-prone tackle in Kolton Miller. 

Albeit in a limited sample, Miller posted the second-best pass-blocking grade amongst all tackles last year. In 2024, he ranked 11th in that PFF grade. 

Linderbaum, Miller and Jackson Powers-Johnson give the Raiders the makings of a decent offensive line. That should boost Ashton Jeanty’s profile in a run-heavy Kubiak offense. 

Simultaneously, Las Vegas experienced some bad luck in 2024. The team went 1-4 in field-goal games and 2-5 in one-possession games. 

Cumulatively, the Raiders finished 1.3 wins under expectation. It should also be noted that the Raiders played last season with the worst net rest advantage in the league (-19). 

They had their bye week negated (a one-point loss to Jacksonville), played at Washington off MNF (Washington played off TNF) and played two additional games vs. teams off byes. 

Given those factors, I predict the Raiders will finish with at least six wins in 2026. 

Most Wins in Raiders History

The Raiders’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 13. In 1976, the Raiders went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Raiders History

The Raiders’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. In 2006, the Raiders struggled, finishing with a 2-14 record.