Saints Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Saints’ win total sits at 7.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

New Orleans started slowly in Kellen Moore’s debut season. After a 1-7 start with Spencer Rattler, the team turned to Tyler Shough in Week 8. Coming down the stretch, New Orleans finished 5-4. 

Oddsmakers took note of the strong finish. Year over year, New Orleans’ preseason win total rose from 6.5 to 7.5, tied for second amongst NFC South teams. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for New Orleans’ 2025 win total and my Saints win total prediction. 

Saints Win Total Odds

The Saints’ season win total is set at 7.5 games. Based on the opening odds, New Orleans’ outcome against the win total is viewed as a coin flip. 

Currently, the Saints are -130 to finish over 7.5 wins. Moore’s team is simultaneously +110 to go under 7.5 wins this season. 

If New Orleans finishes above this benchmark, it will mark the second straight year the Saints have cleared their season win total. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all NFC South teams:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.5 Wins
• Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 Wins
• New Orleans Saints: 7.5 Wins
• Carolina Panthers: 6.5 Wins

Saints Win Total Prediction 2026

Based on New Orleans’ easy schedule and sustained defensive success from the end of last season, I predict New Orleans finishes Over 7.5 Wins (-110). 

My bullishness for New Orleans begins with the team’s defensive play nearing the end of last season. 

To begin the season, the Saints faced a brutal set of opposing offenses. In the first nine games of the year, New Orleans faced six games against top-nine offenses by DVOA. 

The team allowed 27 points per game over that span and kept only two teams – Arizona and New York (N) – to 20 or fewer points. 

Beginning with Week 10, the schedule softened for the defense. From that point forward, the Saints allowed only 17.5 points per game. 

Underlying metrics back up those performances. New Orleans jumped from 21st in defensive EPA per play and 22nd in defensive success rate to second and first, respectively. 

I point that out because the schedule next year presents a comparably easy schedule of opposing offenses. 

Cumulatively, New Orleans faced the 12th-hardest set of opposing offenses in 2025. Based on last year’s offensive ratings, the unit projects to face the league’s third-easiest set of offenses. 

Even by a two-year blended average of offensive DVOA records, the schedule rates out as the league’s 23rd-hardest. 

One more factor leads me to believe New Orleans could see some positive regression in 2026. 

Last season, the Saints struggled immensely on special teams. At 71.4%, the Saints recorded the lowest field-goal percentage in the NFL. 

Defensively, the team allowed the fourth-highest conversion rate (92.3%). That delta (-20.9%) is the largest in the NFL. 

Additionally, it came while surrendering the fourth-fewest red zone opportunities in the league. Translation: teams consistently hit from long range against the Saints. 

In fact, 53% of opponent field goal makes against New Orleans came from at least 40 yards last year. 

Finally, New Orleans’ offensive record can be viewed with some skepticism. Last year, the Saints lost 54.4 adjusted games to injury on offense. Only nine teams lost more. 

All of those potential improvements lead me to believe this team clears this number at a higher rate than the 52.4% implied probability suggests. 

Most Wins in Saints History

The Saints’ record for most wins in a single season is 13, accomplishing that four times, the last of which was in 2019.

Fewest Wins in Saints History

Their season with the fewest wins was 1980, when they won just one game. They have three seasons where they won just two games.