- The Bengals’ 2025 win total is set at 9.5 wins at BetMGM.
- Cincinnati won nine games in 2024 despite a weak defense.
- I predict a harder defensive schedule sees Cincinnati finish under 9.5 wins.
For the 2025 NFL season, the Bengals’ win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
The story of Cincinnati’s 2024 campaign proved simple. A weak defense dragged down a leading offense, leading the Bengals to nine wins and a missed postseason.
Cincinnati retained Tee Higgins in free agency this offseason while handing Ja’Marr Chase an extension. That keeps the offense intact, with the win total dropping one.
Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Cincinnati’s 2025 win total and my Bengals win total prediction.
Bengals Win Total Odds
The Bengals’ season win total is set at 9.5 games.
Oddsmakers expect the over to be the more likely outcome. Currently, Cincinnati is -150 to win 10 or more games, an implied probability of 60%.
Meanwhile, the odds for Cincinnati to finish with nine or fewer wins is +125, an implied probability of 44.4%.
Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC North teams:
- Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 Wins
- Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5 Wins
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Wins
- Cleveland Browns: 4.5 Wins
Bengals Win Total Prediction 2025
Based on the Bengals’ inability to stop the run and their more difficult defensive schedule, I predict the Bengals finish Under 9.5 Wins (+125).
To illustrate just how bad the Bengals’ defense played last season, consider this one stat.
When the Bengals allowed 29 or fewer points last season, they finished 9-2. Otherwise, they finished 0-6.
That should illustrate the gap between their two units. Last season, the Bengals’ offense ranked fifth in DVOA while its defense finished 27th in DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
It’s also not as if mitigating factors exist to explain last season’s defensive issues. The Bengals, as the last-place finisher in 2023, played the third-easiest set of opposing offenses in 2024.
Given Cincinnati’s approach to free agency, it appears the team is all in on letting the offense carry the weight.
Save for linebacker Oren Burks, Cincinnati acquired no impact players who alone can fix its defensive issues.
Thus, the key question for this team is whether its offense can once again play strongly enough to overcome one of the league’s weakest defenses.
In terms of defensive schedule, Cincinnati faces a more difficult test in 2025.
Based on Cincy’s opponents’ 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, the Bengals are slated to face the 14th-hardest set of opposing offenses.
I maintain the offense maintains its rating – the Bengals finished fifth or better in DVOA two of the previous three years – but it likely needs to take a step forward given the schedule.
What’s concerning about the offense is that it sustained very few injuries at skills positions last year.
Of Cincinnati’s 34.5 adjusted games lost to injury on offense, 19.3 came along the offensive line.
That leaves the door open for potential offensive regression on a team that has seen movement on this win total already.
Initially, oddsmakers opened Cincinnati’s win total at 10.5. However, as of May 1, the Bengals saw 72% of all money backing their win total under.
Accordingly, the number moved from 10.5 wins to 9.5 wins.
Based on those facts, I’m not inclined to back the other side. Given the increase in offensive competition, I’ll take the under on Cincinnati’s win total.
Bengals Win Total Prediction 2024
Bengals Over 10.5 Wins (-125)
As outlined in my AFC North Winner Prediction, I’m very high on the Bengals this season.
Their three divisional rivals all play notoriously difficult schedules.
League wide, Pittsburgh plays the hardest, Cleveland plays the third-hardest and Baltimore plays the fourth-hardest based on opposing win totals.
The same cannot be said for Cincinnati. They face the sixth-easiest schedule in 2024 with three unique games: New England, Tennessee and Carolina.
With their division foes playing the corresponding finishing positions from those divisions, it should give Cincinnati an edge.
Plus, Joe Burrow returns to bolster an offense that played very well last season. From Week 11 onward, Cincinnati finished 11th in EPA per play, per rbsdm.com.
They’ve also made nice additions to their defense. Vonn Bell and Geno Stone arrive to sure up the secondary, while Sheldon Rankins replaces DJ Reader.
That creates a nice buy-low opportunity on Cincy’s defense. Last year, they dropped 20 spots in defensive EPA per play year-over-year.
Plus, the Bengals play only five games this season against teams 16th or better in offensive EPA per play last season.
Accordingly, back them to clear 10.5 wins for the second time in three seasons.
Bengals Over/Under Wins, Live Odds
| Week Number | Win Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason | 10.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Week 2 | 9.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Week 3 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
Most Wins in Bengals History
The Bengals’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 12. Cincinnati has recorded 12 victories in four seasons, 1981, 1988, 2015, and 2022.
Fewest Wins in Bengals History
The Bengals’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. Cincinnati has a pair of two-win seasons, 2002 and 2019.
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