Bengals Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Bengals’ win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

The Bengals endured another difficult campaign in 2025. Joe Burrow missed nine games due to injury as the Bengals regressed from nine wins in 2024 to six in 2025. 

Despite the dropoff, oddsmakers kept Cincinnati’s win total the same as last season. If the Bengals finish under this number, it will mark the fourth straight failure against its win total. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Cincinnati’s 2026 win total and my Bengals win total prediction. 

Bengals Win Total Odds

The Bengals’ season win total is set at 9.5 games. 

Oddsmakers expect the over to be the more likely outcome. Currently, Cincinnati is -102 to win 10 or more games. 

Meanwhile, the odds for Cincinnati to finish with nine or fewer wins is -118. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all AFC North teams:

• Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 Wins
• Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5 Wins
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Wins
• Cleveland Browns: 6.5 Wins

Bengals Win Total Prediction 2026

Based on a misleading points differential in 2025 and an easier defensive schedule in 2026, I predict the Bengals finish Over 9.5 Wins (-115). 

Here’s my favorite stat about the Bengals last season: Across the entire league, Cincinnati surrendered the most touchdowns on defense and special teams (9). 

Those 63 points allowed outpaced second-place Arizona by the same gap as between Arizona and the 23rd-place New York Jets! 

Cincinnati’s point differential on those defensive and special teams (-49) touchdowns outpaced second-place Las Vegas and eighth-placed Tampa Bay. 

Three of Cincinnati’s five losses by one possession featured an opponent touchdown on defense or special teams. 

It coincided with a year where Burrow missed time, and the offense fell off. Year over year, the Bengals dropped from fifth in offensive DVOA to 14th. 

Burrow established himself as a dominant quarterback when he returned from injury. 

Only Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford outpaced him in adjusted EPA per play from Week 13 onward. Burrow led the NFL in completion percentage over expected within that sample. 

If the Bengals can keep Burrow healthy, the offensive ceiling remains quite high. In the last two years, when Burrow missed zero action, Cincinnati finished a top-five DVOA offense. 

Key to any success is a rapid defensive turnaround. To me, Bryan Cook and Boye Mafe are an equitable addition to Trey Hendrickson’s departure. 

Additionally, the Bengals defense actually played okay coming down the stretch in 2025. 

From Week 12 onward, Cincinnati ranked 15th in defensive success rate on plays excluding turnovers. 

Even if you just look at Weeks 12-15 – New England, Buffalo and Baltimore twice – the Bengals finished with a 48.9% defensive success rate compared to 52.2% in Weeks 1-10. 

Their EPA/play over that four-game stretch dropped from +0.269 in Weeks 1-10 to +0.211. 

In 2026, Cincinnati projects to face a significantly easier set of opposing offenses. Based on 2025 offensive DVOA ratings, the Bengals project to face the league’s easiest set of offenses. 

If the offense returns to its 2024 benchmark, it takes a ton of pressure off the Bengals defense. Plus, Cincinnati faces the league’s third-easiest schedule by opponent win totals. 

Based on those factors, I predict the Bengals notch at least 10 wins in 2026. 

Most Wins in Bengals History

The Bengals’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 12. Cincinnati has recorded 12 victories in four seasons, 1981, 1988, 2015, and 2022.

Fewest Wins in Bengals History

The Bengals’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. Cincinnati has a pair of two-win seasons, 2002 and 2019.