NFL Picks & Predictions: AFC North Division Winner

For the first time since 2019, the Baltimore Ravens captured a division title in the loaded AFC North. 

At 13-4, Baltimore topped a division in which all four teams finished above .500 and three reached the postseason. 

How does this division shake out in 2024? Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for the AFC North division winner and my best bet. 

NFL Odds – AFC North Division Winner

• Baltimore Ravens: +110
• Cincinnati Bengals: +175
• Cleveland Browns: +550
• Pittsburgh Steelers: +900

NFL Picks & Predictions – AFC North Division Winner

LEAN Cincinnati Bengals (+175) to Win the AFC North

I’d love a better price on the Bengals, who occupied the basement of this division last season largely because of a season-ending injury to Joe Burrow. 

The situation with Tee Higgins remains unresolved. For me to make a bet on the Bengals at this number, I’d need Cincinnati to retain him or find a suitable replacement. 

That said, it’s really a choice between the Ravens and Bengals here. Despite their lofty prices, I have zero interest in the Browns and Steelers. 

Lady luck planted herself firmly on the side of both Cleveland and Pittsburgh last season. 

In five games decided by three or fewer points, the Browns finished a perfect 5-0. Expect some regression on that front and their 6-2 record in games decided within seven points. 

As for the Steelers, nine of their 10 wins came by seven or fewer points last year. In 11 games decided by seven or fewer points, Pittsburgh finished 9-2. 

Head coach Mike Tomlin’s side also benefited from playing four of six divisional games against Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Tyler Huntley and Jake Browning. 

Against competent quarterbacks, bettors should expect some natural regression from the Steelers amidst their roster changes. 

That leads me to the Bengals, who will return Burrow from injury this season and play the easiest schedule in the division as a function of finishing last. 

I also suspect their defense isn’t as bad as it was last year. Although they ranked 23rd in defensive DVOA, it came against the third-hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Plus, the Bengals made some quality free-agency additions in safeties Vonn Bell and Geno Stone. Additionally, Trent Brown and Zack Moss arrive on the offensive side of the ball. 

That should help narrow the gap between Cincinnati and Baltimore, who climbed from last place in the division the previous year to win it in 2023. 

For those reasons, the bet for me in this division is the Bengals.