Below, bettors can find NFL odds for the AFC South division winner and my AFC South prediction.Â
AFC South Odds 2026
AFC South Prediction 2026
Based on Cam Ward’s likely positive regression and Tennessee’s comparatively easy defensive schedule, I predict the Tennessee Titans (+800) win the AFC South in 2026.Â
Ward struggled mightily in his rookie season. Amongst 47 quarterbacks that ran at least 100 plays, he finished 44th in EPA + CPOE, per rbsdm.com.Â
But when you contextualize that performance in terms of strength of schedule, it’s easy to give Ward a pass.Â
In his rookie season, Ward faced the hardest set of opposing defenses (-6.3% DVOA average). Dating back to 2018, it’s the hardest set of defenses ANY quarterback has faced.Â
Twelve of 17 games came against a team 15th or better in pass defense DVOA, including all of his first four NFL starts.Â
Projecting Ward’s 2026 schedule is difficult due to the fluidity of defenses year over year. But it’s likely the schedule won’t play as hard as Ward’s rookie season.Â
Defensively, I expect Tennessee to take a step forward next year. Last season, the unit finished 30th in DVOA against the eighth-hardest set of offenses.Â
By 2025 offensive DVOA ratings, Tennessee projects to face the 22nd-hardest set of offenses. On a two-year blended average, the rating drops to the 26th-hardest set of offenses.Â
Robert Saleh takes over as head coach following a strong defensive tenure with the Jets, even in his final season.Â
That year, the Jets ranked fifth in EPA per play and sixth in defensive success rate under Saleh.Â
An improved defense should allow a team that finished 2-5 in one-possession games last year to post some positive regression.Â
Finally, the team enjoys an advantage over its AFC South counterparts in the schedule. Here are the cumulative win totals for the division’s unique opponents next year:
- Titans: 21.5 wins
- Colts: 23.5 wins
- Jaguars: 28.5 wins
- Texans: 30.5 wins
Given all those factors, I like the price on Tennessee to steal the division in 2026.
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