NFL Picks & Predictions: AFC East Division Winner

From almost out of nowhere, the Bills turned on the jets late in the 2023-24 season to claim their fourth straight AFC East title. 

That left the Dolphins in second after controlling the division for most of the season, but two losses to Buffalo ultimately undid their chances of claiming the crown. 

How does this division shake out in 2024? Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for the AFC East division winner and my best bet. 

NFL Odds – AFC East Division Winner

• Buffalo Bills: +150
• Miami Dolphins: +175
• New York Jets: +250
• New England Patriots: +1800

NFL Picks & Predictions – AFC East Division Winner

New York Jets (+280, 0.5 unit) to Win AFC East

Writer’s note: This was written prior to the Bills trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans. The current number on the Jets is +250, and I still like it at that number.

After being the talk of the NFL last offseason, the Jets have flown under the radar thus far in free agency. 

Given the losses both Buffalo and Miami have sustained in free agency, they’re a good bet this season. 

It won’t show up in the futures odds, but the Dolphins losing Christian Wilkins, Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel are big losses. 

Even if they helped offset it with the addition of corner Kendall Fuller, I expect Miami’s defense to struggle next season. 

For Buffalo, they lost wide receiver Gabe Davis, center Mitch Morse, corner Tre’Davious White and safety Micah Hyde. 

Meanwhile, the Jets have quietly made solid additions via both trade and free agency. 

Morgan Moses, ninth and 12th amongst all tackles in PFF’s offensive grades the last two seasons, arrives from Baltimore to bolster the Jets’ offensive line. 

Tyrod Taylor comes in to back up Aaron Rodgers, while Javon Kinlaw arrives on the defensive line to partner with Quinnen Williams. 

If the Jets offense can prove average this season – they ranked 32nd in EPA per play last season – their defense could carry them to a division title. 

Last season, the Jets ranked third in defensive DVOA after facing the 15th-hardest set of opposing offenses. 

That comes a season after sitting sixth in defensive DVOA despite facing the hardest set of opposing offenses. 

Next season, the average defensive DVOA rating of their 17 opponents is 16.3, with the Jets playing only five games against teams 10th or better. 

Plus, New York sat sixth in 2023-24 season in terms of adjusted games lost due to injury. With some newfound health, they’re worth a small wager to win the division.