Dolphins Over/Under Wins, 2024 NFL Win Totals

For the 2024 NFL season, the Dolphins win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

In 2023, Miami earned their fourth consecutive winning season and made their second consecutive playoff appearance. 

Their near-perfect offense largely remains intact this season, but the defense suffered some notable departures: Christian Wilkins, Andrew van Ginkel, Jerome Baker and Xavien Howard. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Miami’s 2024 win total. 

Dolphins Win Total Odds

The Dolphins’ season win total is set at 9.5 games. 

As it stands, oddsmakers rate the Dolphins more likely to win 10 or more games. Miami over 9.5 wins is currently priced at -135 for an implied probability of 57.4%. 

Comparatively, the Dolphins under 9.5 wins is priced at +110 for an implied probability of 47.6%. 

Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all AFC East teams:

• Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Wins
• Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Wins
• New York Jets: 9.5 Wins
• New England Patriots: 4.5 Wins

Dolphins 2024 Schedule

Dolphins 2024 Win Total Prediction

LEAN Dolphins Over 9.5 Wins (-135)

If you agree with my assumption the Jets improve and the Bills regress, taking Miami over their win total makes sense. 

Two pillars for the Dolphins should give them optimism heading into 2024. 

First is that their outstanding skill players return on offense. Last year, Miami ranked fourth in offensive EPA per play – third through the air and fifth on the ground. 

My worry is that the interior of their offensive line took a hit. Robert Hunt departed for Carolina, and both centers from 2023 remain on the market. 

Miami addressed those departures in the form of Aaron Brewer and Jack Driscoll, but it could be something to monitor if they fail to establish a ground game. 

Additionally, Miami receives a fairly easy schedule for the 2024 season. Based on opponent win totals, they have the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL. 

The chief concern with Miami is that their defense experienced loads of roster turnover. 

In addition to the four aforementioned players, Miami saw Raekwon Davis, DeShon Elliott and Brandon Jones depart. 

The Dolphins front office made a strong effort to address all those departures. However, it could easily be the case Miami regresses defensively. 

Even if that happens, Miami’s offense could prove strong enough to overcome that weakness. 

However, that worry is enough to keep me off this win total. Force me to play it, though, and I’ll back the over.

Most Wins in Dolphins History

The Dolphins’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14, which has happened twice. The first time was in 1972 when the Dolphins went 14-0.

In 1984, the Dolphins finished 14-2, eventually losing in the Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Dolphins History

The Dolphins’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. In 2007, the Dolphins finished 1-15.