Dolphins Over Under Wins 2026 Prediction & Odds

Below, bettors can find NFL odds for the Miami Dolphins’ 2026 win total and my Dolphins win total prediction. 

Dolphins Win Total Odds 2026

The Dolphins season win total is set at 4.5 games. 

Current odds price over 4.5 wins at +145 while under 4.5 wins is priced at -175.

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all AFC East teams:

• Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Wins
• New England Patriots: 9.5 Wins
• New York Jets: 5.5 Wins
• Miami Dolphins: 4.5 Wins

Dolphins Win Total Prediction 2026

Miami Dolphins Under 4.5 Wins (+110)

Based on current implied probability, the Dolphins are predicted to finish under 4.5 wins with 60.8% confidence. Given Miami’s difficult schedule next year and the lack of talent on offense, I predict Miami finishes Under 4.5 Wins (+110) in 2026. 

Even if the Dolphins retained their best offensive pieces, it wouldn’t change how brutal a schedule they face in 2026. 

Only Arizona projects to face a more difficult schedule by opponent win totals. But the Dolphins face a brutal schedule outside of division play. 

Hafley inherits a team scheduled to face the AFC West and NFC North. In other words, the team plays only three games against teams with win totals set at 5.5 or less. 

From a unique opponent standpoint, Miami gets the brunt of the schedule within the AFC East. Those three games come against the 49ers, Bengals and Colts for a cumulative total of 28.5. 

Only Buffalo plays a harder schedule of unique opponents within the division. 

If that weren’t enough, Miami lacks any semblance of offensive structure to overcome that schedule. 

Malik Willis arrives at quarterback. His arrival likely minimizes De’Von Achane’s impact as a receiver, given Willis’ tendencies as a scrambling quarterback. 

Most concerning about the Dolphins offense is how infrequently they reached the red zone in 2025. 

The Dolphins ranked 24th in offensive red zone opportunities despite facing the league’s third-easiest set of opposing defenses, per FTN Fantasy. 

Plus, the offensive line remains a glaring concern. That problem should be exacerbated without capable receivers capable of earning separation. 

Lastly, Hafley faces an enormous challenge in turning the defense around. 

In 2025, the Dolphins ranked 24th in defensive DVOA against the eighth-easiest set of opposing offenses. 

All of their results were dictated by whether the defense showed up. Allowing 21 points or less: 7-0. Allowing 22 points or more: 0-10. 

I point that out because the Dolphins project to face the league’s eighth-hardest set of offenses in 2026. On a two-year blended average, it’s the fourth-hardest set of offenses. 

That schedule should lead to some regression for a team that finished 1.1 wins above expectation last season, thanks to a 4-3 record in one-possession games. 

Based on those factors – along with losing Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick – I predict Miami stays under 4.5 wins next year.