Lions Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Lions’ win total sits at 10.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Despite incessant injuries to their defense, Detroit won 15 games in 2024 before falling to the Commanders in the divisional round. 

On the heels of that success, Detroit lost both coordinators. Ben Johnson left to coach the Bears while Aaron Glenn departed to coach the Jets. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Detroit’s 2025 win total and my Lions win total prediction. 

Lions Win Total Odds

The Lions’ season win total is set at 10.5 games for the upcoming season. 

Oddsmakers expect the Under is the more likely outcome. Currently, Detroit is -120 to win 10 or fewer games, an implied probability of 54.5%. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with 11 or more wins is +100, an implied probability of 50.5%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all NFC North teams:

• Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins
• Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Wins
• Chicago Bears: 8.5 Wins
• Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins

Lions Win Total Prediction, 2025

Lions Under 10.5 Wins (-120)

If the Lions clear this number, tip your cap to them. But between the schedule and personnel turnover, I question how they accomplish 11 or more victories. 

BET: Lions Over 10.5 Wins @ +100

BET: Lions Under 10.5 Wins @ -120

After a second straight year winning the NFC North, Detroit faces a brutal schedule in 2025. 

Not only do they face six divisional games against three teams with win totals set at 8.5 or higher, but their remaining schedule looks horrifying. 

Even more terrifying for Lions fans is the schedule away from home. 

Excluding the three divisional games, the Lions face the following opponents on the road: Cincinnati, Kansas City, Washington, Philadelphia, Baltimore and the Rams. 

All of those teams own win totals set at 9.5 or higher. 

That should lead to some instant regression for a team that finished 8-0 SU on the road last year. 

Plus, Detroit plays markedly better from a SU standpoint when operating indoors. Under Campbell, Detroit posted a 28-19 SU record indoors compared to 11-9-1 outside. 

It’s also a chance to fade a Lions team that ran markedly above expectations in 2024. 

Detroit finished the season 4-0 in games decided by a field goal or less and 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Accordingly, they finished 1.5 wins over expected. 

The Lions also finished 6-0 in the division. However, three of those wins came by three or fewer points. 

A reasonable counterpoint might be that the defense suffered so many injuries it led to increased volatility. Defensively, Detroit lost the most adjusted games to injury. 

But the counterpoint to that argument is that the Detroit offense remained SO HEALTHY, it adjusted for those absences. 

Only Baltimore sustained fewer adjusted games lost to injury on offense than Detroit, which now must deploy a new offensive coordinator. 

If there’s injury regression in both directions, I’m still skeptical how the Lions defense copes with a strong schedule of opposing offenses. 

Next season, the Lions face 11 games against teams 15th or better in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Pair that with going from 15 games indoors in 2024 to only nine in 2025, and I’ll take the Lions Under 10.5 Wins (-120).

Most Wins in Lions History

The Lions franchise record for wins in the regular season is 15. They won 15 games in the 2024 regular season, but were knocked out by the Commanders in the divisional round.

Fewest Wins in Lions History

The Lions went 0-16 in 2008, becoming the first NFL franchise to do so. They also went 0-11 in 1942 and have won three or fewer games 14 times.

They’re one of 12 NFL teams that never won the Super Bowl.