Chiefs Over/Under Wins, 2024 NFL Win Totals

For the 2024 NFL season, the Chiefs win total sits at 11.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Kansas City won its fewest regular-season games since 2017 last year. However, it ultimately didn’t matter with Patrick Mahomes and company defending their Super Bowl title. 

Kansas City returns most of their core personnel for 2024, including most defensive starters from a unit that surrendered the second-fewest points per game last season. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Kansas City’s 2024 win total. 

Chiefs Win Total Odds

The Chiefs’ season win total is set at 11.5 games. 

Oddsmakers rate the Chiefs as more likely to win 12 games this season. Currently, Kansas City is -120 to clear their season win total, an implied probability of 54.5%

Comparatively, the defending Super Bowl champions are +100 to win 11 or fewer games in 2024, an implied probability of 50%. 

Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all AFC West teams:

• Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Chargers: 8.5 Wins
• Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Wins
• Denver Broncos: 5.5 Wins

Chiefs 2024 Schedule

Chiefs 2024 Win Total Prediction

LEAN Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins (-120)

History says taking overs on teams with double-digit win totals isn’t a winning strategy. 

However, if there’s a team to clear a lofty number this season, Kansas City feels the likeliest candidate. 

The biggest concern with Kansas City is their troubles defending the run last year. During the regular season, they ranked 28th in rush EPA per play despite sitting 15th in success rate. 

The good news? They ranked third in passing EPA per play and second in passing success rate allowed. 

Of course, this is still a team that lost L’Jarius Sneed to Tennessee during the offseason, which could see their pass defense negatively regress. 

It also might not matter when you’re betting on a Kansas City team with the best quarterback in the league and an improved receiving corps year over year. 

Despite winning 11 games last year and reaching the pinnacle of football, Kansas City ranked eighth in passing success rate and 15th in pass EPA per play during the regular season. 

Finally, even though Kansas City faces a first-place schedule, the opponent slate doesn’t look bad. 

The first six opponents are tough – Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans and San Francisco – but the remainder is fairly comfortable. 

Of their final 11 opponents, Kansas City faces only one game against a team with a win total higher than nine wins (Week 11 at Buffalo). 

All told, the Chiefs face the 12th-easiest schedule based on opponent win totals. 

As a result, I’d be more inclined to take the over rather than betting against Patrick Mahomes.

Most Wins in Chiefs History

The Chiefs’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. In 2020 and 2022, the Chiefs won 14 games.

Kansas City appeared in the Super Bowl in both seasons, winning the most recent over the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022. Those of two of five total Super Bowl appearances for the Chiefs.

Fewest Wins in Chiefs History

The Chiefs’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. The Chiefs have won just two games in a season three times in their existence, in 1977, 2008, and 2012.