Cowboys Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Cowboys’ win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Brian Schottenheimer’s first season saw Dallas finish under its season win total by a half game. Thanks to a lackluster defense, Dallas missed the playoffs despite trotting out a strong offense. 

The team retained George Pickens during the defense and completely overhauled its defense. Now, Dallas enters the 2026 season with a higher win total compared to 2025. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Dallas’s 2026 win total and my Cowboys win total prediction: 

Cowboys Win Total Odds

The Cowboys’ season win total is set at 8.5 games. 

Oddsmakers expect the over to be the more likely outcome. Currently, Dallas is -175 to win at least nine games in 2026. 

Meanwhile, the odds of them finishing with eight or fewer wins are +145. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all NFC East teams:

• Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Wins
• Dallas Cowboys: 8.5 Wins
• Washington Commanders: 7.5 Wins
• New York Giants: 7.5 Wins

Cowboys Win Total Prediction 2026

Based on Dallas’ offensive ceiling and signals for defensive improvement, I predict the Cowboys finish Over 8.5 Wins (-145). 

I’m not going to sit here and pretend the Cowboys defense looked good last year. What I will say is that contributing factors made it look worse than in reality. 

Trading Micah Parsons days before the regular season was less than ideal. Additionally, the defense finished 31st in pass defense DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. 

The latter metric can partially be explained by injuries. As a defense, Dallas sustained 49.1 adjusted games lost to injury – only 10 teams lost more. 

That output includes 25.3 at defensive back. Improved health – along with some reinforcements like Jalen Thompson – should see the defense take a step forward. 

Only two years ago, Dallas ranked 16th in pass defense DVOA. Plus, the run defense looked a lot better after the team acquired Quinnen Williams. 

Christian Parker, a former Eagles defensive coach, also arrives to coordinate the defense. 

Coming from a defense that regularly ranked amongst the league’s best bolsters an improvement case. 

Most of my bullishness here rests with the offense. Last season, Dallas qualified as one of only three teams to finish 10th or better in offensive DVOA and miss the playoffs. 

If the unit stays healthy, Dallas possesses one of the loftiest offensive ceilings in the conference, along with the best-case scenario in the NFC East. 

On paper, the schedule looks really difficult. By opponent win totals, Dallas faces the league’s fourth-hardest schedule. 

I’m not sure it plays that difficult, especially by uncommon opponents. Dallas’ unique opponents – Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Baltimore – don’t scare me on the level their win totals would indicate. 

Essentially, teams will beat Dallas by preventing the offense from succeeding. To do that, the team needs two elite outside corners that can hang with Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. 

The schedule features a couple of those teams. For example: Los Angeles (N), Philadelphia twice, Indianapolis, Houston and maybe Seattle (I remain unconvinced by Josh Jobe). 

Even if you assume Dallas drops all six of those games – they split with Philadelphia last year – it still leaves a lot of winnable games. 

A couple of other factors lead me to expect improvement from the Cowboys. 

Last season, the offense earned 65 red zone opportunities, tied for fifth in the NFL. However, they scored touchdowns on 57% of those opportunities, ranking 18th in the NFL. 

Additionally, kicking luck played a massive role in Dallas’ games last year. Opponents converted field goals at a 94% clip, the second-highest rate in the league. 

Dallas’ -8.4% field-goal conversion delta – field goal percentage minus opponent field goal percentage – ranked as the seventh-worst margin in the NFL. 

All those factors lead me to believe Dallas can reach double-digit victories in 2026. 

Most Wins in Cowboys History

The Cowboys have won 13 games three times in franchise history. The first time was in 1992, and the most recent was in 2016.

Fewest Wins in Cowboys History

The Cowboys’ lowest win total in franchise history is zero (0-11-1) in their inaugural season in 1960.

In 1989, the Cowboys won one game, followed by the best run in franchise history from 1990 to 1996.