- The Bills’ 2025 win total is set at 11.5 wins at BetMGM.
- Buffalo has won at least 10 games in six straight seasons.
- I predict the Bills finish over 11.5 wins in 2025, due to their schedule.
For the 2025 NFL season, the Bills win total sits at 11.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
The Bills reached the AFC Championship game in 2024, but couldn’t eclipse the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s the fifth straight year the Bills reached the divisional round at a minimum.
With minimal roster turnover set to impact Buffalo this offseason, the Bills find themselves amongst the favorites in the Super Bowl odds.
Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Buffalo’s 2025 win total and my Bills win total prediction.
Bills Win Total Odds
The Bills’ season win total is set at 11.5 games.
Oddsmakers expect the over as the more likely outcome. Currently, Buffalo is -145 to win 12 or more games, an implied probability of 59.2%.
Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with 11 or fewer wins is +120, an implied probability of 45.5%.
Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC East teams:
- Buffalo Bills: 11.5 Wins
- Miami Dolphins: 8.5 Wins
- New England Patriots: 7.5 Wins
- New York Jets: 5.5 Wins
Bills Win Total Prediction, 2025
Bills Over 11.5 Wins (-145)
Based on Buffalo’s schedule composition and the likely continuance of their offensive success, I predict the Bills finish over 11.5 wins in 2025.
While it’s a lot of juice to lay on a bet that won’t settle for a few months, all signs point to Buffalo clearing their win total for the fourth straight year.
It’s no secret the Bills own one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. With Josh Allen as the starting quarterback, Buffalo owns a 42-21 record at home.
In road and neutral site contests, the Bills recorded a 34-22 record with Allen.
Just over the last three seasons: 21-2 at home, 16-11 everywhere else.
That comes into play in 2025, but it’s not just because the Bills receive a bonus home game. Largely, it’s because they face more difficult opposition at home.
Only six games next year come against teams that reached the postseason the prior year. Four of those six – Baltimore, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia – are in Buffalo.
The remaining two? At Pittsburgh and Houston. If you expect improvement from the Bengals, that game also comes at home for Buffalo.
From a metrics standpoint, Buffalo’s offense should remain a driver of success into 2025.
The Bills finished third or better in offensive DVOA each of the last three seasons. In the last five seasons, they’ve never fallen outside the top 10, per ftnfantasy.com.
While last year’s success came against an easy schedule – second in DVOA, 26th in opponent strength – this year’s schedule lacks intimidation.
Of 17 games, only four come against teams which ranked 10th or better in defensive DVOA last year.
If the defense takes a step forward – they face only four games against top-10 offenses – 12 wins feels easily achievable.
Most Wins in Bills History
The Bills’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 13, which happened in 1990, 1991, 2020, 2022 and 2024.
In 1990 and 1991, the Bills lost in the Super Bowl and remain among the 12 NFL teams that have never won the Super Bowl.
Fewest Wins in Bills History
The Bills’ franchise record for fewest regular-season wins is one; they went 1-13 in 1971, the team’s second year in the NFL.
They also won only two games in 1976, 1984, and 1985.
Related Articles
At BetMGM, you can bet on college football with updated college football spreads, parlays, live betting , and more.
If you’re new to the sportsbook, register today with BetMGM’s welcome promo. And check out updated sportsbook promos each day of the year.
