Rams Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Rams win total sits at 11.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Los Angeles nearly reached Super Bowl LX, falling to Seattle in the NFC Championship. That came after a 12-5 regular season for the Rams, headlined by Matthew Stafford’s MVP. 

Year over year, Los Angeles’ win total rose from 9.5 to 11.5. The offense largely remains intact – tackle Rob Havenstein retired – and the team acquired Trent McDuffie for the defense. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Los Angeles’ 2026 win total and my Rams win total prediction. 

Rams Win Total Odds

The Rams’ season win total is set at 11.5 games. 

Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have produced only one losing season (2022). Still, oddsmakers price the Rams more likely to finish under 11.5 wins (+115). 

Conversely, Los Angeles is priced at -140 to win at least 12 games in 2026. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all NFC West teams:

• Los Angeles Rams: 11.5 Wins
• San Francisco 49ers: 10.5 Wins
• Seattle Seahawks: 10.5 Wins
• Arizona Cardinals: 4.5 Wins

Rams Win Total Prediction 2026

Based on the Rams’ offensive fortune against banged-up defenses and the difficult defensive schedule next year, I predict the Rams finish Under 11.5 Wins (-125). 

This prediction is tough, as one can argue the Rams ran unlucky in all of their losses last season. 

They gave the game away in Philly. San Francisco won in overtime by forcing a Kyren Williams fumble inside the five. 

Carolina and Atlanta needed Stafford eggs with Seattle storming back for a 38-37 win, despite losing the turnover battle and allowing 581 yards. 

Here’s the problem with the Rams: the offense started dominating as the season progressed. However, it coincided with the team facing a ton of injured defenses. 

Los Angeles posted a +0.182 EPA per play in the first seven games on plays excluding turnovers. From Week 9-17: +0.265. 

In the latter sample, Los Angeles posted a 54.3% offensive success rate, up from 50.9% in the first seven games. 

The gap between Los Angeles and second-place San Francisco (51.2%) is as big as the gap between the 49ers and sixth-place Green Bay. 

But that stretch featured games against San Francisco (hurt), Detroit (hurt), Tampa Bay with no Jamel Dean or Haason Reddick, Arizona (hurt) and Carolina (bad). 

The Week 16 performance against Seattle sans Davante Adams is impressive. However, I wonder how much the short rest factored into that strength. 

Against a competent Atlanta defense that wasn’t hurt, LA posted a +0.125 EPA per play when you remove Stafford’s turnovers. Their success rate also dropped to 45.2%. 

All the stars aligned for this offense….and they still only won 12 games. Simply applying the law of averages here suggests the only way to go is down. 

History supports that notion. Since 2023, two teams finished above 30% offensive DVOA for the season: the ‘23 49ers and the ‘24 Ravens. 

San Francisco went from 12 wins in 2023 to six in 2024. Baltimore went from 12 wins in 2024 to eight in 2025. 

Next season, the Rams project to face the league’s third-hardest schedule by opponent win totals. Only Miami and Arizona face more difficult schedules. 

For the Rams to clear this line, the offense will need to sustain its level from 2024. History tells us that’s a very difficult task. 

The 49ers’ offensive DVOA dropped from 31.8% in ‘23 to 10.6% in ‘24. Baltimore went from 35.1% in ‘24 to 6.5% in ‘25. 

Plus, the defense is going to face a gauntlet. On a two-year blended average of offensive DVOA records, the Rams defense projects to face the league’s hardest schedule. 

LA plays only three games against teams with win totals set under seven wins. Against that difficult schedule, it’s my belief the Rams finish under this line more often than not. 

Most Wins in Rams History

The Rams’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. They accomplished that feat in 2001 but lost to the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Rams History

The Rams’ franchise record for fewest wins in a single season is one, occurring on three occasions (1937, 1962, and 2009) and in three different cities (Cleveland, Los Angeles, and St. Louis).