Packers Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Packers win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Green Bay enters the season with the same win total as in 2024, despite racking up 11 wins in 2024. That marked the second straight season the Packers cleared their season win total. 

The story of Green Bay’s 2024 campaign is two-fold: bad performances in the division, outstanding elsewhere. Last season, five of Green Bay’s six losses came in the NFC North. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Green Bay’s 2025 win total and my Packers win total prediction. 

Packers Win Total Odds

The Packers’ season win total is set at 9.5 games for the upcoming season. 

Oddsmakers rate the outcome as a coin flip. Both over 9.5 wins and under 9.5 wins are juiced to -110 for an implied probability of 52.4%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all NFC North teams:

• Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins
• Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Wins
• Chicago Bears: 8.5 Wins
• Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins

Packers Win Total Prediction, 2025

Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 Wins (-105)

Based on implied probability, the Packers are predicted to have over 9.5 wins with 51.22% confidence. Given Green Bay’s expected positive regression and the structure of their schedule, I predict the Packers finish Over 9.5 Wins (-105). 

BET: Packers Over 9.5 Wins @ -120

BET: Packers Under 9.5 Wins @ +100

I’m slightly scared about my bullishness on Green Bay in 2025. 

But when you pair the roster construction with their bad luck last season and an outstanding defense, I can almost convince myself it’s a buy-low spot on an 11-win team. 

While Green Bay may lack the flashy skill players spread across the division, there’s unquestionable strength in the trenches. 

The Packers finished seventh in pass-block win rate and sixth in run-stop win rate last year, per ESPN Analytics. 

Offensively, Green Bay finished fourth in total offensive DVOA against the second-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Despite those strong metrics, Green Bay ran super unlucky in 2024. The Packers finished 1.7 wins under expected and finished third in expected wins. 

Driving that underperformance were five losses within the division, four of which came by less than a field goal. 

Further contributing to my optimism around Green Bay: Loads of their opponents are expected to regress in 2025. 

Green Bay’s 2025 opponents finished 6.1 wins over expected in 2024. Their opponents are also expected to regress in 2025, with odds rating opponents going from 154.1 to 147.5 wins in 2025.

That delta is the most in the league amongst teams not playing in the NFC North. 

Lastly, virtually all of Green Bay’s difficult games come at home next year. 

Including their divisional opponents, the Packers play 13 games against teams with win totals set at 8.5 or higher. 

Of those 13 games, seven come at Lambeau Field, including four of five against teams with totals set at 9.5 wins or higher. 

Truthfully, the only potential hiccup for Green Bay is an injury crisis. Last season, the Packers finished with the seventh-fewest adjusted games lost to injury. 

But if the Packers stay healthy and maintain their offensive record – sixth or better in DVOA two straight years – I like Green Bay to earn at least 10 wins. 

Most Wins in Packers History

The Packers franchise record for wins in a single season is 15, achieving that in 2015.

Fewest Wins in Packers History

The Packers’ season with the fewest wins was in 1958 when they won just one game.