Packers Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Packers win total sits at 10.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Green Bay raced out to a 9-3-1 start in 2025 and appeared on the way to clearing 9.5 wins. But the Packers lost four straight to close the season and exited in the wild-card round. 

Despite the lackluster finish, oddsmakers upgraded Green Bay’s win total. Year over year, the Packers’ season win total rose by a full win, despite finishing under this number last year. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Green Bay’s 2026 win total and my Packers win total prediction. 

Packers Win Total Odds

The Packers’ season win total is set at 10.5 games. 

Oddsmakers currently rate the under as the slightly more likely outcome. Over 10.5 wins is priced at -102 while under 10.5 wins is priced at -118. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all NFC North teams:

• Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins
• Green Bay Packers: 10.5 Wins
• Chicago Bears: 9.5 Wins
• Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins

Packers Win Total Prediction, 2026

Based on Green Bay’s offensive record in the face of overwhelming injury issues last season, I predict the Packers finish Over 10.5 Wins (-105) in 2026. 

I rate this prediction among the more difficult evaluations for the 2026 season win totals. 

The case for optimism rests with the offense. Green Bay finished sixth in offensive DVOA – down from fourth in 2024 – despite losing 48.3 adjusted games to injury, per FTN Fantasy. 

Matt LaFleur’s team finished 0.6 wins under expected in 2025, too. Driving that misfortune? An 0-3-1 record in field-goal games. 

Heck, the Packers lost three games last year where they didn’t punt the football! If the team comes through in those games against Carolina and at Chicago, they clear their win total. 

Even if you think the Packers take a step back in the division, they might clear this number anyway. Two years ago, Green Bay won 11 games, including a 10-1 record outside the division. 

The schedule this season lacks intimidation. Outside the division, Green Bay gets the AFC East and NFC South with unique games against the Cowboys, Rams and Texans. 

By cumulative season win totals, the Packers are set to face the league’s 14th-easiest schedule. Within the division, it’s the second-easiest schedule behind Detroit. 

The final stat potentially encouraging for those bullish on Green Bay? Last season, the Packers finished with the fifth-worst field goal percentage in the league. 

A -11.1% delta in field goal conversions looks massive when you fail to win all four games decided by a field goal or less. 

Here’s the bad news: Green Bay’s defense could prove a massive problem. 

Micah Parsons tore his Achilles late in the 2025 season and appears set to miss the beginning of the season. 

Green Bay also projects to play the league’s 11th-hardest set of offenses after playing the 23rd-hardest in 2025. 

Jonathan Gannon takes over as defensive coordinator for a unit losing some decent starters. Quay Walker, Rashan Gary and Kingsley Enagbare all departed in free agency. 

The offense also loses Elgton Jenkins and Rasheed Walker along the offensive line. Malik Willis also received a payday in Miami, leaving a gap behind Jordan Love. 

Those departures lead me to question if the upgrade from 9.5 to 10.5 is justified, especially the offensive line departures. 

A simultaneous argument exists that the positive regression metrics – paired with an easy schedule – counterbalance those departures. 

My gut says yes, but the unknown about the defense leaves me unsure about this win total. 

Most Wins in Packers History

The Packers franchise record for wins in a single season is 15, achieving that in 2015.

Fewest Wins in Packers History

The Packers’ season with the fewest wins was in 1958 when they won just one game.