Bears Over Under Wins 2026 Prediction & Odds

Below, bettors can find NFL odds for the Chicago Bears’ 2026 win total and my Bears win total prediction. 

Bears Win Total Odds 2026

The Bears’ season win total is set at 9.5 wins. 

Current odds price over 9.5 wins at while under 9.5 wins is priced at .

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all NFC North teams:

• Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins
• Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Wins
• Chicago Bears: 9.5 Wins
• Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins

Bears Win Total Prediction 2026

Chicago Bears Under 9.5 Wins (-120)

Based on current implied probability, the Bears are predicted to finish under 9.5 wins with 55.6% confidence. Given Chicago’s penchant for unlikely wins in 2025 and their impending turnover regression, I predict the Bears finish Under 9.5 Wins (-120) in 2026. 

Chicago overachieved against an easy schedule in 2025. Their reward? A brutal set of 2026 opponents against which they should regress back to the mean. 

Last year, the Bears built success off improbable comebacks and defensive turnover luck. Their +22 turnover differential led the NFL and proved the second-largest difference since 2019. 

In 2024, the Buffalo Bills notched a +24 turnover differential. In 2025, despite an easier schedule, Buffalo fell from 13 wins to 12 in 2025. 

In the regular season, Caleb Williams threw only seven interceptions off 19 turnover-worthy plays. Bills quarterback Josh Allen offers a helpful comparison (six interceptions off 15 TWP’s). 

Last year, Allen regressed to 10 interceptions off 14 TWP’s. Buffalo’s defense regressed from 32 turnovers to 20. 

I point all this out to illustrate how even good teams can regress against easy opposition. The problem for Chicago is that next year, they face a brutal schedule. 

By opponent win totals, Chicago projects to face the sixth-hardest schedule in the league. They’ll do that as a prime negative regression candidate, finishing two wins over expected. 

Last year, the Bears won six of 11 games with a score in the final two minutes of the game. Two of those wins came in games where Chicago knocked out the opposing starting quarterback. 

If Jordan Love and Jaxson Dart finish games in Chicago, a chance exists that this team’s record looks much different. 

Given those factors, I predict bettors see regression from Chicago in 2026.