Bears Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Bears’ win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Chicago enjoyed a massive improvement under rookie head coach Ben Johnson. The Bears improved by six wins year over year, winning the NFC North in the process.

Johnson led the Bears to a playoff win over the Packers at home. Ultimately, the Bears fell to the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round.

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Chicago’s 2026 win total and my Bears win total prediction. 

Bears Win Total Odds

The Bears’ season win total is set at 9.5 wins. 

Oddsmakers expect the under is the more likely outcome. Currently, Chicago is -125 to win nine or fewer games. 

Meanwhile, the odds for Chicago to finish with 10 or more wins is +105. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all NFC North teams:

• Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins
• Green Bay Packers: 10.5 Wins
• Chicago Bears: 9.5 Wins
• Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins

Bears Win Total Prediction, 2026

Chicago Bears Under 9.5 Wins (-120)

Based on Chicago’s penchant for unlikely wins in 2025 and their impending turnover regression, I predict the Bears finish Under 9.5 Wins (-120) in 2026. 

Chicago overachieved against an easy schedule in 2025. Their reward? A brutal set of 2026 opponents against which they should regress back to the mean. 

Last year, the Bears built success off improbable comebacks and defensive turnover luck. Their +22 turnover differential led the NFL and proved the second-largest difference since 2019. 

In 2024, the Buffalo Bills notched a +24 turnover differential. In 2025, despite an easier schedule, Buffalo fell from 13 wins to 12 in 2025. 

In the regular season, Caleb Williams threw only seven interceptions off 19 turnover-worthy plays. Bills quarterback Josh Allen offers a helpful comparison (six interceptions off 15 TWP’s). 

Last year, Allen regressed to 10 interceptions off 14 TWP’s. Buffalo’s defense regressed from 32 turnovers to 20. 

I point all this out to illustrate how even good teams can regress against easy opposition. The problem for Chicago is that next year, they face a brutal schedule. 

By opponent win totals, Chicago projects to face the sixth-hardest schedule in the league. They’ll do that as a prime negative regression candidate, finishing two wins over expected. 

Last year, the Bears won six of 11 games with a score in the final two minutes of the game. Two of those wins came in games where Chicago knocked out the opposing starting quarterback. 

If Jordan Love and Jaxson Dart finish games in Chicago, a chance exists that this team’s record looks much different. 

Given those factors, I predict bettors see regression from Chicago in 2026. 

Most Wins in Bears History

The Bears’ franchise record for wins in a single season is 15. They achieved this in 1985, later winning the Super Bowl that year.

Fewest Wins in Bears History

The Bears’ season with the lowest win total was 1969 when they finished 1-13.