Bears Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Bears’ win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Caleb Williams’ rookie season proved a struggle. Injuries plagued Chicago, which led the league in sacks allowed. In a season where the Bears fired Matt Eberflus, they finished on five wins. 

Optimism surrounds the Bears ahead of 2025. Former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson arrives as the new head coach for the Bears, who overhauled the offensive line in free agency. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Chicago’s 2025 win total and my Bears win total prediction. 

Bears Win Total Odds

The Bears’ season win total is set at 8.5 wins. 

Oddsmakers expect the under is the more likely outcome. Currently, Chicago is -135 to win eight or fewer games, an implied probability of 57.4%. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with nine or more wins is +110, an implied probability of 47.6%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all NFC North teams:

• Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins
• Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Wins
• Chicago Bears: 8.5 Wins
• Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins

Bears Win Total Prediction, 2025

Bears Over 8.5 Wins (+110)

Based on Chicago’s expected positive regression and quality free agency additions, I predict the Bears finish Over 8.5 Wins (+110). 

BET: Bears Over 8.5 Wins @ +105

BET: Bears Under 8.5 Wins @ -125

Part of me rates this line a complete trap. How can so much certainty exist that a team will improve four wins annually against a pretty difficult schedule? 

The good news for the Bears: the schedule might not look as difficult as it meets the eye. Last year, opponents combined 165 wins on 161.3 expected wins, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Chicago’s opponents combine for win totals of 148.5. The delta between Chicago’s opponents’ expected wins last season and cumulative win totals (12.8) is the biggest in the league. 

That might help explain the expected improvement for the Bears, who ran extremely unlucky last season. 

Chicago finished with five wins on 6.7 expected. Only two teams – Jacksonville and San Francisco – faced worse luck. 

Driving that bad luck was a 1-5 record in games decided by three or fewer points and a 3-7 record in games decided by seven or fewer points. 

History tells bettors that, in those situations, it’s wise to back the over the following year. 

Since the schedule expanded to 17 games, seven teams finished with seven or fewer wins while underperforming their expected wins by at least 1.5. 

All seven saw at least two more wins the next season. Five of those seven saw five or fewer wins, with those teams averaging a win total increase of 4.6 wins. 

Despite all those facts, I’m caught staring at an incredibly difficult schedule for the Bears, particularly away from home. 

Next season, Chicago faces Philadelphia, Washington, Baltimore, Cincinnati, San Francisco and Las Vegas away from home, in addition to their divisional opponents. 

While the home schedule is far more manageable – only one non-division game against a playoff team – that remains a lot to overcome. 

But the lingering thought is that Chicago made quality additions that directly addressed issues from 2024. As a result, it’s over or nothing for me on the Bears.

Most Wins in Bears History

The Bears’ franchise record for wins in a single season is 15. They achieved this in 1985, later winning the Super Bowl that year.

Fewest Wins in Bears History

The Bears’ season with the lowest win total was 1969 when they finished 1-13.